How fast is it changing? At $105/share (last week) the market cap was $31 billion. At $130/share (Friday) it was $38 billion. At $150/share (earlier today), it is about $44 billion. …I can’t keep up.
At $120/share, ZM’s mkt cap is around $35 billion. At $160 (or whatever it got up to), the mkt cap was pushing near $47 billion. That’s a 12 BILLION dollar fluctuation in a week.
There are going to be opportunities with such a volatile stock, and I think today is one.
From the ycombinator site in the earlier post: The IT guys in the industry know very well what constitutes an E2E encryption. Those two ends must be “trusted” which means it’s either you yourself - your computer, or the other party which you want to talk to. Everything in between is third party and must get only encrypted data. If they redefine one of the “ends” as Zoom server, that’s definitely intentional, blatant, and therefore fraudulent.
It sounds like Zoom defined “End to end” as “Your PC to our server, then we need to see something in your data stream to make our stuff work, then we re-encrypt from our server to your friends.”. IF THAT IS TRUE, that means ZM servers have your content unencrypted. Doesn’t matter if hostile intent or accidental. The security people of paid customers will be concerned. If the server-decryption / re-encryption is a technical requirement for their video traffic flow to work as well as it does, their best feature works because of their worst flaw. If that cannot be fixed, they will lose a lot of paid business they otherwise would have.
I don’t know and I am at work. Perhaps some of the other tech types can investigate further.
Someone posted here earlier that contrary to all the “shocked” posts, the telephone companies have always been able to listen to your phone calls back at the phone company if they wanted to, but no-one gets excited about that or turns off their phone service. There’s a certain amount of blowing this out of proportion.
Saul
To be clear, for the majority of use cases there is E2E encryption.
There are some exceptions, such as participants using a landline, or SIP/H.323 room-based systems (which I assume is some legacy standard that Zoom have no control over) where E2E encryption between the cloud and end-user is not always possible.
But then, when has someone using a landline ever had a reasonable expectation of privacy?
I think Zoom’s response is very reasonable. After reading the article this morning I dove in with a 7% position at 118.00.
The difference is that some phone company nug was not sitting at home in sweats listening in. Typically folks with that kind of access had background checks at a minimum.
The difference is that some phone company nug was not sitting at home in sweats listening in. Typically folks with that kind of access had background checks at a minimum.
Yes, phone companies have controls over who is allowed access. Zoom does as well; from the blog post:
To ensure this entire process meets the needs of our customers around the clock and around the world, Zoom currently maintains the key management system for these systems in the cloud. Importantly, Zoom has implemented robust and validated internal controls to prevent unauthorized access to any content that users share during meetings, including – but not limited to – the video, audio, and chat content of those meetings.
Hi Bear, I just got another chance and added some too at $20.70 (not a ton, as it was already my largest position). I just don’t think people are understanding the difference that 20 times the number of users will make.
If the mix of paid vs free of the new ones is only half as good as the original 10 million users, it will still mean ten times as much revenue (revenue up 900%). If the mix of paid users is only a quarter as good as the original 10 million, they will still have five times as much revenue (up 400%). And that’s not up 400% from the $122 million that they had year over year, it’s up 400% from the most recent quarter where they had $188 million (that is where that 10 million users came from).
Let’s see, up 400% from $188 million is $940 million. That will be up from $122 million yoy. It will be 150% of the ENTIRE Jan 2020 fiscal year revenue — in just the first quarter of this year. That will sink in after a while.
And that is figuring that the proportion of paid new users is only a quarter as high as the proportion of paid users in the older cohort! (Of course February users were not as high as March, but April users will probably be higher, so Apr quarter results may vary from what I projected, but add or subtract 10% or 15% as you wish. It will not change the story in any significant way.)
Someone posted here earlier that contrary to all the “shocked” posts, the telephone companies have always been able to listen to your phone calls back at the phone company if they wanted to, but no-one gets excited about that or turns off their phone service. There’s a certain amount of blowing this out of proportion. Saul
There are strict federal and state privacy laws in US about listening to phone calls.
I know I’ve said it before, but I think the number of new Zoom users who become paying customers is a big question mark. I’d like to figure out how to get a good estimate on the total number of new users that become customers.
I’m going to assume that most of the new customers are people who are now conducting their lives from home. People are using Zoom for school, exercise, and social gathering. So how many people are going to actually pay for accounts? I think a good reference point might be Dropbox. 2.5% of dropbox users pay for an account. I think it’s fair to argue that Zoom will have a similar customer conversion rate in the consumer market. A lot of people are also downloading and using Zoom for work from home as well - but with the expansion of free features, I think these users will be paying for accounts at a similar rate to consumers.
If Zoom’s daily active users have gone from 10 million to 200 million (https://venturebeat.com/2020/04/02/zooms-daily-active-users-…), I would expect 4,750,000 users to become customers - assuming that they convert users to customers at a similar rate to dropbox.
Assuming half of these new customers are paying for the 14.99 pro plan, and half are paying for the 19.99 business plan, these new customers would generate $996.930 million in revenue over the course of 2020!!!
But what if that conversion rate is way off? What if they convert at 1/10 the rate of dropbox? Then it’s $99.69 million added…just a drop in the bucket. This may seem ridiculously conservative - but pretty much all 1000 students at my school are using zoom and not paying for it, but none of them use dropbox. So I really, honestly, have no clue. That’s why Zoom stays a small position in my speculation basket.
