Kite and the three dwarfs

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Kite and the three dwarfs

A week ago I wrote that when I sold out of ZioPharma, Cellectis, and Bluebird about a 5 weeks ago and piled it all into Kite, I got some flak about abandoning such promising companies, and especially demanding how could I be so sure about one. I tried to explain that the others were “promising” for 2020 or 2021 or 2022, but that Kite will probably be commercializing this November.

Well I’ve made some bad calls along the way (taking positions in BlackLine and MuleSoft for example, and selling Hortonworks when I did), but this one, of concentrating my CAR-T funds in Kite, has sure turned out well. Why? Well Kite looks like they are establishing a real franchise, with an approval pending and a full pipeline, and working with major medical centers for their roll-out, while Cellectis, for example, although it has great long term technology possibilities, is announcing first patients being admitted to a Phase 1 study…emphasizing how far it is behind Kite (years, actually, not months).

How are they doing? Well, Kite was up another $10 this week. Here are weekly prices for the five weeks since I made the move:

Kite

$103.10
$109.10
$111.40
$112.60
$120.05
$130.20 - - - Up 26.3% in five weeks (up every week, actually).

Cellectis

$28.01
$26.83
$25.15
$23.25
$21.95
$22.00 - - - Down 21.4% in the same time. (Rather shocking).

Bluebird

$95.80
$96.05
$96.75
$95.00
$94.00
$92.50 - - - Down 3.4% and going nowhere for now.

ZioParma

$5.89
$6.10
$5.74
$5.82
$5.51
$4.99 - - - Down 15.3% in the same time.

Well Kite was up another $10 this week, is up 16.4% in 4 weeks, and the others are moving down. Five weeks doesn’t give us a definitive answer, for sure, but for now it doesn’t look like it was a bad decision.

And thanks again to bulwinkl for bringing Kite to the board and giving me the opportunity to start my position at $47.50 in January, from which it’s up 174% year to date (almost tripling). If you had told me that I’d be up 174% in 7 months on this position I’d NEVER have believed you. Well, that’s investing, I guess.

Saul

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I wish I had bought Kite sooner.

I bought shares on 7/20 and then more shares on 7/21. So now I have a 6% position that is up 19% since inception. I am comfortable with this holding.

Better late than never… sez I

:slight_smile:

Frank

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Well I’ve made some bad calls along the way (taking positions in BlackLine and MuleSoft for example, and selling Hortonworks when I did)

Saul, are you saying you are sorry you took a position in Mulesoft? Just curious. I may have missed a bunch of posts, but last I heard you had added to your position (maybe in your July summary). If you don’t want to comment until your end of August post, no worries.

Thanks

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Hi Saul,
Glad its worked out. I’m surprised I didn’t see a comment along the line of “this stock is way ahead of its self” or “this is way over valued”. Of course we won’t know the valuation until we sort out margins and cash flow. I get the sense that things are going smoothly with the process facilities. Only time will tell. I have to believe pricing will be set for a decent return.

If the FDA were only reviewing the risk/benefit ratio of the therapy, I think the application would be a done deal. However, the FDA is reviewing a process and QA measures too, and that could be tricky.

I still believe there is a lot of upside.

Best,
buwlnkl

Long KITE

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Well I’ve made some bad calls along the way (taking positions in BlackLine and MuleSoft for example, and selling Hortonworks when I did).

Saul, are you saying you are sorry you took a position in Mulesoft?

Hi Speedy, No, since I made that remark I should explain that I was just emphasizing that everything I buy doesn’t go straight up like Kite did. I haven’t sold any Mulesoft, and even added a tiny, tiny bit to my position this week. I reviewed all my notes on it recently, and reread the conference call, and decided that the sell off seemed unwarranted (or at least, overdone), and that I would stay with it for the present.

Saul

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