“Biotech + Options” is far too speculative and akin to gambling for me.
I get your argument, but there is such uncertainty in clinicals, even in phase 3. I’d be more comforted if they had an on-going base of income from approved leading products. Add to that ambiguities such as unrevealed side-effects; patient life quality; patents; and a management team with uncertain depth bringing products to market.
If I was to game this one based on your numbers, I’d go with a long 40/60 April strangle.
I hope you make a killing on your KITE trade.