Late to the game on this board

I have been devouring this board over the last month, trying to catch up on some of the pearls of wisdom from the excellent members here. I’d like to thank all of you for sharing your knowledge. Trying to apply the lessons from this board, I found a company that interests me, AEIS. I’ll probably take a nibble at it, a “get to know you” position, but I’d like some of the brain trust here to gently critique my thinking if they get the opportunity. My thought process in a nutshell:

  • P/E 16.5
  • revenues grew 31% over past 12 months, nearly doubling industry average
  • EPS up 32% over past 12 months
  • EPS projected to be up 59% for FY 2018
  • zero debt

I may be missing something, so feel free to point out my logical flaws.

5 Likes

Hi Bamafan,

You haven’t told us what AEIS does, what field it’s in, etc. I think you need to flesh it out a bit to get people interested. Give us a few paragraphs about the company as most of us have never heard of it probably.

Saul

5 Likes

Bamafan68,

Welcome to the premier board of MF kingdom.

Jim

1972 Bama grad…Roll Tide!

Sorry, I was focusing largely on the numbers. Apparently, AEIS excels in power conversion and thin film application equipment necessary for semiconductors, 3D-NAND, LED displays among other industrial uses. It appears that they have diversified from their early concentration in the semiconductor sector although that still makes up more than 50% of their business. The investor relations slide presentation had a nice, happy “providing the breakthroughs that permit the breakthroughs” (downstream; implied) language.

And Roll Tide, Jim!

You had me with the numbers, but lost me at semiconductor…its cyclical and I don’t have time for that :slight_smile:

but really, I looked at the ticker on SA and this stood out to me:
Way off highs (cyclical)
Earnings beats but Revenue growth is shrinking and missed (55% to 45% to 39.7% to 32% to 20%)
P/S and EV/S are ~3 (not a highly valued growth company imo, but I could be valuing the company incorrectly, please prove me wrong ;))
Margins are good 51.7%, and Rev Growth YoY is at 35%, but that doesn’t line up with what they reported at earnings call, so those numbers are suspect to me)
Shares outstanding are constant (not being diluted)
Has positive earnings, which are growing, but not at the same or close as revenue. There was a 62M income tax hit in 2017 compared to 11M in 2016, I’d want to know what that was about.

I could probably go into more detail, but compared to PVTL or even PSTG this doesn’t seem like a great place to put my cash in today’s market.

Robert
long PVTL and Saul long PSTG

3 Likes

Robert, thank you for the excellent feedback! I went back and looked at the earnings call transcript. As best I can tell, the numbers they gave were pretty consistent, but the service line numbers appeared lower. Perhaps that led to your concerns about the revenue numbers? Good point about the YoY tax change; I couldn’t find out anything else about that.

Thanks again for your thoughts!

Here’s a nice write up from SA.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4184522-advanced-energy-und…