Utility grid storage is already cost effective in some cases. The main driver in the cost decrease is global production. The more renewables are produced, the cheaper they get, and the cheaper they get, the more are produced. We’re at the bottom of the S curve so it doesn’t seem like things are happening, but once renewables plus storage become clearly the cheapest option, the demand for grid storage will explode. I suspect that day is not too far off.
I fully agree that grid storage will explode up. Don’t know when, but I expect it to happen.
The question is what happens after that. Is it an S curve that pops up to a high level and stay there? Do grid storage providers keep installing a high level of projects? Or does it drop back down to a lower level?
Grid storage isn’t like a consumer product with a relatively short life (like a smart phone or a car). Once a grid storage facility is up and running, it will stay there for many years. Decades, probably. Yes, batteries will likely need to be replaced from time to time, and there’s always on going maintenance. But the facility itself is there to stay.
At some point, there is a maximum amount of useful grid storage. More storage beyond that is only going to come from growth in electricity use, not from building new facilities. Phones and cars and other consumer products get replaced on a regular basis, so have a high level of ongoing demand. Once demand for grid storage is satisfied, production cannot stay at the level needed to build all that storage. It will necessarily fall to a lower level representing growth plus the very infrequent replacement.
So I think that grid storage will ramp up nicely and settle in at a peak level for a while. But after a decade or so, many of the most cost-effective installations will be done. Demand for new storage will start to taper off.
What will continue is the need for batteries. Those are going to have a shorter life than that of the whole grid storage plant. And batteries are also pretty useful for EVs.
Switching to Tesla specific thoughts, I can see Tesla slowly morphing from the mostly car company that it currently is to a battery company. Or perhaps a car and battery company. Make batteries for their own cars, and supply batteries to other companies for various uses - EVs, grid storage, home storage, whatever else the future us can think of.
And maybe that’s what you have in mind when you’re talking about grid storage.
–Peter