Here are the average analyst estimates for the next 8 quarters for ZScaler.
All of this information is Koyfin. Koyfin is free and has a ton of great information, including analyst estimates with a chart showing the change over time.
Rev. % growth average estimate
So the analysts, and thus the market, expect ZS to slow quickly to the low 30’s.
I think the probability is high ZS beats today, and likely they are north of 70% growth.
If they are below 65% today I will be surprised.
We shall know soon.
And with this as the expectation over the next 2 years, the probability is high they do way better and add tailwind to the stock.
If these estimates come up in the future, where north of 50% growth is baked in for years, I would become more cautious.
The key is how they do compared to expectations.
Those estimates are absurd, of course! No one in their right mind thinks Zscaler’s revenue growth with slow to 30% in a few quarters. I fully expect ZS to be 50% or greater over the next 2-3 years.
As for today, keep in mind the CFO mentioned previously that fiscal Q1 and Q3 (today) can be the 2 seasonally slowest quarters of billings, and last quarter may be inflated a tad because of a big government contract. On the flip side, ZS has shown that it can land bigger contracts more often. Hard to predict I think, because we have no idea what the new customer will do in terms of # of seats and also if they decide to pay a multi year contract up front.
Upside to these sweet big deals: Big jump in deferred revenue
Downside: lower Net expansion rate
In the end, it’s still win-win for ZS.
Revenue grows 61% year-over-year to $79.1 million
Calculated billings grow 55% year-over-year to $84.7 million
Deferred revenue grows 69% year-over-year to $211.5 million
GAAP net loss of $12.2 million compared to GAAP net loss of $8.8 million on a year-over-year basis
Non-GAAP net income of $7.4 million compared to non-GAAP net loss of $2.6 million on a year-over-year basis
and ZS is down %7.52 after market close.
Guidance looks pretty thin
Revenue to rise $3-4 million next quarter
ZScaler posted revenue 56m last July. If they are to maintain a 60% growth rate, they will need to post 90m in revenue in the upcoming quarter. Guidance calls for 81m-83m. So we want to see a beat of 8m or more next quarter. In the past, ZScaler has beaten estimates by 11m- off a smaller base. So this is not outside the realm of possibility. A beat of anything more than 8m will represent revenue acceleration.
just reading the quarterly report. Can someone put the answer to this question into English:
<iGreat. Thank you so much. Jay, Remo and Bill congrats to you and the team on another great quarter. I mean 55% billings growth, over 60% excluding upfront deals is truly impressive. My question Jay, at the risk of getting too deep into the technology and you talked about this briefly in your prepared remarks, but I’m hoping you can help us understand your differentiation versus some of the competitors that are leveraging public cloud partnerships to compete with Zscaler. Why might this make sense or not makes sense and what are you seeing when you go head-to-head and proof of concept with these types of solutions or are they able to perform and deliver on all the capabilities that you want? Thanks
Jay Chaudhry – President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Brad thank you. Very good questions. Appliance vendors are having to compete for the cloud using technology that it wasn’t meant from the cloud. So when they are spinning these virtual machines on public cloud and claiming to have presence in 100 locations or more is totally misleading. Let me walk through a little bit on how these public clouds work. Google, AWS, they’re very large centralized data centers in about 100 locations around the world. They call them regions. That’s where applications run, that’s where storage and compute actually runs.
Now in addition they have 100 some locations, some of them call them points of presence, others call them natural edge locations and these are front doors that collect information so that the thing can be sent to the regions, which are about 20 or so. So these clouds are built to run applications as the destinations, not an in transit cloud. For example take AWS data center in Ohio. It is kind of staying away from Chicago, so the traffic goes there and comes back. Speed of light is speed of light, so the performance can’t be good unless you build a cloud that’s distributed to handle security to enforcement hence the response time architecturally can’t be good. The second part of your question was about POCs. We actually don’t really do business through POC’s . We are driving top down cloud transformation through the CIOs. So none of this is impacting us from POC’s point of view.
FWIW ZS CEO to be on Cramer’s Mad Money tonight.