LGIH

[Oforfive]

Amazing. Stock went over my price target yesterday. I sold half at $65.70. Now my #3 position behind SQ and NVDA, still 7%. The 7% is a “hold”. At $72 I would lighten again. I think the momentum crowd are crowding in. Just my feeling, not analytical.

I’ve also recently sold TWLO, BEAT and MITK and added to NTNX, ANET, TTD and NTES (Netease), and rebuilding SHOP. But, more selling than buying so setting on, gasp, 28% cash.

I have SQ (11%), NVDA (11%), LGIH (7%), SHOP (5%), FB (5%), ANET (5%), TLND (4%), NTNX (3%), TTD (2%), VEEV (2%) and INST (1%). Then I have 13% in nine of the 30-odd Phoenix 1 portfolio and the remaining 1 to 2% in the long tail.

I think I’ll keep at least 10% cash and add to the above holdings, plus maybe HUBS. My intent was to have 50% in Phoenix 1 and between cash and P1 that is 41%… What has happened is as I compare my conviction for those companies I’ve listed against the P1 I have shifted more and more away from P1. ANET is calling for an add but I build somewhat slowly and I added some last week.

The cash is certainly high right now, but frankly, if I hadn’t had a good cash cushion I wouldn’t have been psychologically able to build up the positions in SQ, NVDA, SHOP or even taking LGIH to the 24 or 25% position it was.

Thanks to all who share so much on these and other companies.

KC

[Oforfive]

Just to clarify, the p/e of LGIH is only 14.67 and certain to drop after Q4 is announced. And the median of eight builders that I keep track of is only 14.67 or 15.43 (what’s the median of an even number of data points?)… call it 15. But again, when this board started following it, LGIH had a p/e of under 9. The stock price has doubled and the p/e has increased only 50%-ish. So in the Rodney Dangerfield days we’d be at $42 or $44 and maybe euphoria can’t be declared until we see $90.

Only 15 shopping, er, market days 'til November closings! I’m so excited I can hardly sleep

KC