So the experts tend to agree that most all vehicles will soon be EVs, and as far as I can tell, lithium is still the best bet for battery power. Then along comes Goldman and says that lithium is at its peak price and their could be an oversupply in the near future. This sounds pretty vague to me, so in the theme of picks & shovels, I’m still interested in the metal.
If anyone’s here any more, I would be interested in hearing about any successful investments in lithium to date, and what you gurus think of any miners going forward.
Bottom-line question: Are there any reliable investments in lithium now?
Thanks for considering!
Smufty, you’re alive!
And well, I hope. Thanks, Bud.
Dare I ask if you’re still investing mostly in metals? And as log as I’m being so greedy, do you have any lithium plays that are working? I’ve been investing mostly in software for several years, it worked great until last November or so. Since then, I’ve lost several years of gains, so it’s time to spread out a bit.
I’ve been looking for an EV or hybrid for MrsRaptor, but there aren’t (m)any available. Makes me wonder what the real demand for lithium is right now, but I’m sure it will be high whenever these supply chain issues get straightened out, whenever that will be.
What the hell did you do to this board? I keep checking month after month and … nothing. Did someone puke all over the screen, or did Tim cut loose with a super sulfur fart again?
fair weather miner
I have traded a few lithium miners this past year but, like the gold miners, I developed such a mistrust of miner managements that I rarely (almost never) buy and wait.
20 years ago I would define all the qualities of a mine that I believed were harbingers of eventual success - location, permits, phase of development, mine type, financials etc. etc. Later years, I developed my criteria for bailing on such investments - disappointments, etc.
Now I am mostly a sector trader when it comes to miners more than anything else. That said, 2009 was one of my best investing years ever and most of it came from buying gold miners that had been thrown in the trash at the end of 2008. I think another such moment may be approaching on the near horizon.
I was very bullish years ago on a large, proven and I thought stable lithium miner Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.(SQM), but then they developed major political and other problems and in 10 years lost >75% of value. Trading it for short periods this past year, however, has made me money. Other “lithium-related” trades include Albemarle Corporation (ALB), Livent Corporation (LTHM) and the ETF LIT.
I have been slowly accumulating a few individual gold miners - Minera Alamos, Rio2, and Wesdome - but I am EXTREMELY cash heavy the last several months and, if/when I pounce, it will be using a basket of miners and ETFs.
Ha! and there goes Rio2 right on cue - down 50% on the “possibility” that its EIA might get the thumbs down. Perfect example of why one should consider a sector approach to mining investment.
I should probably just fold up the small speculative portion of my portfolio.
I mean really…
<<If anyone’s here any more, I would be interested in hearing about any successful investments in lithium to date, and what you gurus think of any miners going forward.>>
RaptorD2, I did very well in Neo Lithium some time ago when the price was much lower. I sold when Neo got bought out by a Chinese outfit. Since then, lithium’s price has risen so far that I consider it a dangerous field to invest in.
The supremacy of lithium in EV batteries is probably only temporary because of their environmental and safety problems. There is an Australian Graphene manufacturing company (GMGMF) that is developing Graphene+Aluminum batteries that are shaping up well as replacements for lithium ion batteries. Their products have various strong safety and environmental advantages as well as very long life that will outlast a car, and charge in minutes rather than hours if you can find a charging station that could keep up (You can’t for automotive-size batteries). They are starting with coin cells and are distributing samples to OEMs all over. They are expanding their pilot plant into an intermediate-level production plant, and have agreements with Wood and Bosch to design and build full-scale facilities. Coin cells are the first target, to power small devices that charge in 3-4 minutes, and later the pouch cells that will power cars and can recharge while you freshen up at the rest stop.
Drawbacks are 1) Their batteries have somewhat less energy density than Lithium ion batteries, but still have physics-based room to catch up as they still have development time in hand as they exploit the small cells first, which compete head-to head with lithium in the small coin cell field. 2) the company has not responded to my questions about the energy efficiency of their products. That is, the ratio of power out to power in. From what I know of physics their short charging time (without melting anything) implies a very power-efficient battery, but it makes me nervous when they don’t or won’t reveal a fundamental aspect of performance.
At the same time, the worldwide rush to develop better batteries is ongoing and whoever produces a better battery will put Li-ion batteries out of business, because they are interchangeable. I think Graphene Manufacturing Group is ahead of the field right now, but new developments in energy storage come up from month to month.
Ed. (long GMGMF)
<<What the hell did you do to this board? I keep checking month after month and … nothing. Did someone puke all over the screen, or did Tim cut loose with a super sulfur fart again?>>
I have noticed over the years that activity on this board correlates with recent gold price action. Falling gold = less interest and less posting. I use the level of activity as a good contrarian signal.