Quite interesting how data comes together. I went searching for data to build my LNG tanker modeling, and ended up with useful data on Chinese steel.
Ok, let’s start with LNG. As I said, I was trying to build a better data model for my LNG shipping play (that would be Flex LNG (FLNG)), so I actually wanted vessel details, but ended up with other useful stuff.
- LNG tankers sailing from US to Asia encountering delays.
a. But wait, one size does not fit all.
While more than 90% of LNG carriers crossing the Panama Canal have reserved slots in advance to cross quickly and avoid delays, the remaining percentage
still faces the dilemma of waiting or sailing through alternative routes, which is either through the Suez Canal or making the long trip of 38 days around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.
So if you have a reserved slot, less waiting time.
- Then further down is an article on Chinese steel (4th/5th article)
Specifically, it touches upon factors that could impact Chinese steel output in 2022.
Topping the list of six factors - shrinking demand from property and construction
- Did not get the LNG data I originally sought, but got another LNG tanker data-point.
I wanted specific data on a prior Qatari LNG tanker order. But did not get that data. However, all is not lost. I just found out the Qataris have reserved slots for additional LNG tankers at a Chinese shipyard.
Then further down is an article on Chinese steel (4th/5th article)
Specifically, it touches upon factors that could impact Chinese steel output in 2022. Topping the list of six factors - shrinking demand from property and construction
So, Chinese domestic steel demand is likely to be down, steel for exported stuff will be up. Steel prices in the first half of this year are likely to be steady. The second half of 2022 is likely to see some price declines.
Generally good news for those of us outside China.
If this indeed turns into a tale of two halves, and, as a lot of iron ore is imported, dry bulk shipping might do well in one, or both halves. Done a little bit of reshuffling of dry bulk ideas in the shipping basket YTD. But waiting until after lunar New Year to decide on whether to take a bigger dry bulk shipping bet.
In the interim, container shipping and LNG shipping can take up the slack.
But waiting until after lunar New Year to decide on whether to take a bigger dry bulk shipping bet.
Keep us posted.
Continuing the theme of linked data points*, a more detailed explanation of the Chinese demand side, plus
The steelmaking ingredient’s most-traded May contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange DCIOcv1 ended daytime session 7.6% higher at 829 yuan a tonne, after earlier touching 830 yuan, its strongest since Aug. 31.
Front-month March iron ore on the Singapore Exchange SZZFH2 leapt as much as 7% to hit a contract high of $147.25 a tonne.
Again, Aug-Sep 2021 were good months for dry bulk indices across the vessel categories.
Also, note the timing of these plans - after the Winter Olympics are done.
- The S&P Global Platts reference could be from the earlier link.
On 2/2/22, I got the answer to my query.
Latest version of propulsion: MEGI/2-stroke - abt 210 LNG tankers
Prior version: DFDE/TFDE/4-stroke - abt 150 LNG tankers
Prior, prior version: Steam - abt 250 LNG tankers
Other helpful data-points in the article: A new Chinese shipyard (capable of building an LNG tanker)
Odd that Japanese shipyards were not mentioned. Did frequency of orders push out the likes of Mitsubishi as LNG shipyard? (I’m sure there were other Japanese shipyards that used to build LNG tankers)