We had no choice but to obtain a deal to reopen the strait. That’s what this entire conversation is about - the deal to open the strait. Trump can’t walk away from that deal, which is why the terms are so insanely favorable to Iran.
I agree with you that Trump probably won’t find a way to cut a final deal to solve the nuclear problem. But he can’t walk away from this deal and begin bombing again - because again, we need the strait to be open. And Iran knows it, which is why he will get reamed if he actually tries to cut that final deal. So Trump pretends he’s going to start bombing again. But he’s not going to.
And I wonder what Iran is going to do with that $300B? I’ll bet top of that list is going to be rebuilding their nuclear program. And more missiles and mines.
We’re exactly where we were in January, except now Iran is getting $300B.
That ship has already sailed. Before the Trump 1st administration dispatched the JCPOA, Iran only had the technology to refine to 20% Enriched Uranium. Iran shipped 98% of its enriched uranium stockpile out of the country and The Arak reactor was required to be redesigned so that it could not produce weapons-grade plutonium. In the time since the demise of JCPOA, Iran has gone on to enrich material to 70%.
The cat is outta the bag. Iran has the technology to produce 90% weapons grade overnight at this point. You can’t go back.
…and the craziest of the mullah gangsters now have complete control of Iran, and internal opposition to them is now ever more credibly portrayed as treasonous.
I don’t think they’re going to get any of the $300B. I think that’s just Trump not learning the lessons of Gaza and the Board of Peace.
For ease of reference, we have the MOU (the current deal governing the strait and the blockade and setting terms for future negotiations) and the Final Deal (which is the deal that has yet to be negotiated on the nuclear program). Under the MOU, both parties agree that for the next 60 days, they’ll sit down to negotiate a future Final Deal.
What are they actually agreeing to under the MOU? Iran opens the Strait. In return, the U.S. will: i) stop the blockade; ii) waive active sanctions against Iran’s oil and gas sector, including all financial and other sectors related to such trade; and iii) unfreeze their assets. That’s it. No nuclear concessions from Iran - at all. Those are all for the future Final Deal.
So what’s this $300 Billion? That’s not MOU money. It’s Final Deal money. It’s a hail mary pass from the Administration to try and recover from their massive blunder. You might have noticed that we had to give Iran a shirt ton of incentives in the MOU. You know, the deal that did nothing more than bring them back to the table. From the plain text, we’ve already agreed to unfreeze all their assets. We’ve already agreed to waive the most important sanctions. Since we have given them all of those concessions before we even start to bargain, we’re a little short on stuff we can offer them in exchange for the nuclear commitments we want in the Final Deal. Once you agree to give them all their frozen assets, you need some other assets to give them!
Hence, the $300 billion slush fund. Trump is trying to create a new carrot for the Iranian regime. Cut a deal, and all this money will flow into your country. It’s not going to be money that gets given to the government, but money that other people will invest in rebuilding your country (which is how he was able to get all his sovereign wealth fund buddies to start filling it up). It’s the same idea as the Board of Peace slush fund in Gaza. If you think the counterparty will be motivated by big dollar signs and the chance to wet their beak with all that loosely supervised money flowing through the country, you try to appeal to their venal nature by creating the big flow of money.
As with Gaza, though, the Administration has catastrophically misunderstood what motivates the folks on the other side of the table. So this is never going to move the needle on a Final Deal. Meanwhile, we’re already letting Iranian oil flow, and have self-interested reasons for letting them sell unrestricted by sanctions right now. If we actually honor the MOU and unfreeze all the assets, it’s hard to see Iran deciding that opening their country up to foreign businesses to get all the infrastructure projects (you know, instead of “Iran First”) is worth giving up much.
I’m surprised you’re OK with it! You’ve spent a lot of time and energy arguing about the dangers of a nuclear Iran, their missile program, and how their support of proxies in the region is causing all sorts of havoc. I’m medium shocked that you’d be OK with the US pulling back if the strait is opened up.
There is an election in November. If Republicans go into that election with gasoline at $5 or $6 a gallon, they will be slaughtered, redistricting or not. If Trump loses the House, or worse both the House and Senate, his Presidency is effectively over. That’s why.
I don’t need the deal. I drive an EV powered by solar. Mrs. Goofy doesn’t need the deal, she has a hybrid.
You know who needs the deal? Farmers, because much fertilizer comes from petrochemicals. Farmers, because they use barrels and barrels of diesel running their tractors and combines and generators. Good old Boys, because they run pick-up trucks that get 10mpg. Contractors, because they have vans and pickups that probably don’t even get that much. Suburban Moms, who fill the tank with $75 of gas that used to be $40, and have to squeeze the food budget to compensate. The great masses of America need the deal, because $$$. That’s why.
You know who needs this deal most of all? Trump. And he needs it now, which is why he is so desperate and giving away the store. Prices: up like a rocket, down like a feather, remember? If prices don’t start to come down now, they will still be elevated in October. That’s why.
Because if inflation, stoked by high fuel prices continues, the Fed can’t lower rates because of the threat of inflation. If the Fed can’t lower rates, then the housing market slows. Car sales slow. Consumer sales slow.
You are not up to date. The Strait is being opened. The quality of the deal, the language between the warring parties, and the lack of agreement on anything except the strait opening…you want a rubber ducky?
Yet the IEA is saying as of this morning that gasoline prices in 2027 will be much lower than prior to the war. Because the IEA expects a glut of oil in 2027. November is plenty of time to get close to 2027 and much lower prices.
I think inflation will almost disappear by Christmas. I think the global consumer is tapped out, in debt or laid off.
I want a renewed Democratic party to win, but it means getting much more honest. You need a party with solid ideas. This crap and run stuff means nothing.
I think we stumbled onto the source of the confusion. The parties definitely agreed on certain things. A big one is that Iran gets to keep its nuclear program. That is both in the document and confirmed by the POTUS in a press conference today.
That crackling sound you hear in the background isn’t gunfire. It is champagne corks being popped in Tehran.
Iran pays and arms hamas and hezbollah to fight Israeli because of bigotry against jews. Then with low casualty rates hamas and hezbollah turn to you and say our children. I said low casualty rates. Iran in Syria and Yemeni created much higher child casualty rates, but you are not asked to care about Iran’s worse wars where 1 million people have died.