Back to square one.
So oil transportation has not been solved.
Iran must feel they have leverage as US elections near & a Turkish pipeline will take years to build.
As long as the Strait Hormuz is the primary route for oil. Iran is in the catbird seat.
Perhaps a coalition of nations can fund and build a pipeline bypassing the strait can be formed?
Good thought. Two of the Gulf states Saudi being one have already built pipelines to bypass the Strait and they are already on this to build more it seems…doc
edit: New UAE pipeline bypassing Hormuz now 50% complete, ADNOC CEO says
Sure they can. It will only take years to build, and then about 10 minutes to destroy with drones.
I think we have helped the world discover how Iran is in the catbird seat, and why electricity is a good energy idea going forward.
Good point. But would doing result in a coalition of neighboring nations & US & damaged Asian nations form a coalition and put books on the ground in Iran[a la Iraq]?
Iran, it is widely understood by military minds, is near impossible to invade without some sort of heroic D-Day type mission. It is 3 times the size of Iraq. The military is widely dispersed both in operational control and placement of forces. The geography is against you, it is ringed by rugged mountain ranges. It is hard to re-supply. The nearby possible staging places are unavailable, since none of their neighbors want to be in the firing line later. (They may not like Iran, but they don’t want to be on the wrong side of them either.)
And, as we have seen, they have a convenient and strategic neck to step on in the Strait, which (with the advent of drone technology) is easy to shut down, impacting the worldwide economy. And we weren’t smart enough to figure this out ahead of time. Correction: some people weren’t smart enough to figure this out ahead of time.
Still haven’t, is my guess. After much wrangling and weeks of intense negotiations we forced them to get everything they wanted, got an agreement that maybe we would have another agreement someday, and then started mouthing off and firing missiles again.
This is not going away. Certainly not for two years, maybe not ever given how screwed up it is now.
All good points.
An Iran invasion only occurs if the economic damage to many nations is worse than the potential damage from Iran attacks.
Terrain and entrenched defenses can be defeated. The US demonstrated that in the Pacific in WW2. The casualties in taking those islands were horrific. But it was done.
I don’t know if the same will exist now days.
The MoU is/was a sham. Israel and Lebanon were not consulted but were included in the MoUS (S for sham). America has a terrible handicap, elections!
The Captain
Maybe that problem will be solved prior to November. They are working on it.
JimA
Nope. Iraq and Afghanistan were big expensive disasters for the United States. No one wants to be a part of a replay of that.
Iran wants to sell oil. Other countries want to buy it. It is cheaper and easier to simply wait for things to cool off and then back to business as usual. Even though most of the Gulf states hate Iran, for the most part their support the US effort has been pretty timid. The Saudis denied us use of our airbases for a time, for example.
As we discussed in the early days of the war, the US completely miscalculated how this would play out. A few bombs aren’t going to change anything. Russia has been bombing Kiev almost nightly for years now. Ukraine hasn’t rolled over, and Tehran won’t either. The American public on the other hand is going to get tired of high gas prices eventually.
Iran knows this, so they are perfectly happy to close the Strait in order to extract more concessions from the US.
How long before we give them a few nukes?
Sham is such a strong word. Poorly thought out? Yup. Who would have thought that you’d need all participating countries included in the negotiations?
It was a forgone conclusion that the MoU wouldn’t hold. It’s crazy that anyone thought it would work. It’s crazier that this global economy threatening event would result in the S&P going up over 20% YoY.
No the problem for Iran is us. The regime fears we will renege on any agreement. The regime can not sign much of anything.
The structure of what we want and what they want will never work. The two can not be agreed upon.
Now you know how Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel and many others feel about Iran’s regime. This is does not preclude Russia and China, while useful to the regime they too will or do have reasons to feel at odds eventually with Iran’s regime.
If the regime were to charge for the Straits passage China would hate it. But as it is the regime keeps closing down the Strait which is worse. Even if China has oil it’s customers need oil to fuel their economies in part. China’s good only travel in a healthier global economy. The Chinese industrialists hate this stuff.
Blame won’t cut it. Meaning blaming the US and Israel or whoever won’t matter. Blame does nothing for any of us.
Blaming the regime won’t cut it. It is what it is.
But something’s got to give. The regime’s got to go.
If all any of you want to do is sit in blame, that won’t change a single thing. It becomes worthless and meaningless.
I agree, but I think we are talking about different countries.
I don’t know. What if Oman decides to bomb stuff going through the strait until they get all the stuff they want? Would that put them in the “catbird seat” too?
It does. Iran has mined and pledged to attack shipping that goes through international waters. That forces ships to go through either Iranian-controlled waters or through Oman-controlled waters. Oman of course can, and says they will, charge the same fees as Iran.
This is a big win for Iran and an unexpected windfall for Oman.
Oman…Oh-man…Ohhhhhhh-man! Iran is a thief, you gotta believe, we’re still playing t!t-for-a-tat.
Goofy,
LMAO
Keep a stiff upper lip
The regime has, Iran is 80% not the regime.
We have not asked yet has the US rearmed its ammunitions? The answer is not yet.
But this other AI result.
Yes, the U.S. has a massive, deep stockpile of “dumb” general-purpose bombs (the Mk-80 series) that can be successfully used to strike Iranian targets, but they are never dropped as purely unguided bombs anymore. Instead, the U.S. military relies on JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) tail kits, which use GPS satellite networks to instantly convert these cheap “dumb” gravity bombs into hyper-accurate “smart” weapons. [1, 2, 3, 4]
The current conflict dynamics illustrate how the U.S. is utilizing this satellite-guided strategy:
During the early, highly intense phases of the war with Iran, the U.S. heavily depleted its high-end, multi-million dollar cruise missiles (like Tomahawks) and air-defense interceptors (like Patriot and THAAD missiles). To lower the immense cost of the war and preserve rare missile stockpiles, the U.S. military transitioned to its deeper “magazine depth” of general-purpose bombs modified by satellites. A standalone Tomahawk cruise missile costs roughly $2.5 million, whereas a standard unguided bomb fitted with a satellite-guided JDAM tail kit costs under $100,000 to deliver the exact same explosive payload. [1, 5, 6]
The U.S. does not drop traditional free-fall gravity bombs because they are highly inaccurate and risk severe collateral damage. Instead, the U.S. relies on the following process: [4]
This exact strategy is currently being executed with high frequency in theater:
If you are interested, we can look closer at the production limits of JDAM tail kits or dive into how Iranian electronic warfare attempts to jam these satellite signals.
[7] https://euromaidanpress.com
[8] https://news.bloomberglaw.com
[9] https://thedefensepost.com
The exact number of MK 80 series bombs in the US arsenal is classified and not publicly disclosed by the Pentagon. However, unclassified reports indicate a massive inventory numbering in the hundreds of thousands, with the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems facility in Garland, Texas, serving as the primary certified DoD manufacturer. [1, 2, 3]
The MK 80 series consists of four primary unguided, low-drag general-purpose (LDGP) bombs:
These munitions are heavily utilized by the US military and serve as the core warheads for various precision-guided weapon kits, including Paveway laser-guided bombs and JDAMs (Joint Direct Attack Munitions) . [2, 7]
AI can make mistakes, so double-check responses
[1] https://157ac.studentorg.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/1-MK82.pdf
[2] https://afarmamentmuseum.com/artifact/gpbombs/
[3] https://blueaero.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/General_Dynamics_Aircraft_Bombs.pdf
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General-purpose_bomb
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_82_bomb
[6] https://157ac.studentorg.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/1-MK82.pdf
The tail kits?
The U.S. military has a projected total inventory of 217,746 Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) tail kits across the Air Force and Navy. While the kits are in full-rate production (supported by a $7.4 billion Boeing contract extending through 2030), there have been global supply chain and stockpile constraints. [1, 2, 3, 4]
Inventory & Shortages at a Glance:
Recent International Kit Allocations (2026):
Review Joint Direct Attack Munition GBU- 31/32/38 - Air Force for detailed platform breakdowns and Pentagon Awards Boeing $7.4 Billion Contract for JDAM Tail Kits for production details. [1, 2]
AI can make mistakes, so double-check responses
[2] https://english.defensearabia.com/pentagon-awards-boeing-7-4-billion-contract-for-jdam-tail-kits/
[3] https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/newsisrael-requests-sale-of-jdam-tail-kits-from-us/
[4] https://thedefensepost.com/2024/05/23/canada-jdam-tail-kits/
[5] https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-01-29/pdf/2026-01721.pdf
[6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-approves-3736m-sale-of-guided-bomb-kits-to-ukraine/3928322
A return to war.
