Low quality inflation data

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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https://www.wsj.com/economy/cpi-inflation-data-accuracy-8bd2a8ae?mod=hp_lead_pos10

Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data

Labor Department says staffing shortages reduced its ability to conduct its massive monthly survey

By Matt Grossman, The Wall Street Journal, June 4, 2025

Key Points

  • Some economists question U.S. inflation data accuracy due to staffing shortages affecting survey precision.

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics used less precise methods for guessing price changes in April’s inflation report due to hiring freeze.

  • Data issues could significantly affect economy, influencing social-security benefits, bonds and Federal Reserve decisions.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month’s inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past.

Economists say the staffing shortage raises questions about the quality of recent and coming inflation reports. There is no sign of an intentional effort to publish false or misleading statistics. But any problems with the data could have major implications for the economy…

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The inflation rate determines how much social-security benefits go up each year, and where federal tax brackets are set. Private-sector contracts such as wage agreements between companies and unions routinely reference the inflation rate. Payments on $2 trillion of inflation-protected federal bonds hinge on the inflation rate, as do yields on standard Treasury bonds. Businesses, investors and policymakers rely on the reading to guide their decisions. The Federal Reserve is laser-focused on inflation data when it sets interest rates for the country…[end quote]

Do we have DOGE to thank for this? They didn’t say.

This doesn’t include potential political meddling.

Wendy

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I have told the story before, how the pump seal company hired a management consultant to do a survey of the company’s standing in the industry. Management didn’t like the answer, so threw shade on the consultant’s methodology, and threw the report away.

Steve

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Was there ever a doubt that the current admin is going to “massage” any and all numbers coming from any government bureau ??
Can’t tell “believable” fairy tales if ya have to adhere to real data.
But I’m pretty sure there are non-gov watchdogs monitoring inflation. We will be seeing some conflicting analysis. I know I’m not believing a word of anything coming out of this admin.

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