Low-yield nukes: Escalate to de-escalate

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017/february/esc…

**Escalate to De-escalate**

**By Mark B. Schneider, U.S. Naval Institute, February 2017**

**Russia is modernizing extensively its nuclear forces to be able to “de-escalate a conflict” using a small number of strikes and, if necessary, launch a massive nuclear strike. Ongoing force modernization includes over a dozen new types of strategic delivery vehicles, and new precision low-yield nuclear weapons....**
**In June 2015, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work and then-Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral James Winnefeld observed, “Russian military doctrine includes what some have called an ‘escalate to de-escalate’ strategy—a strategy that purportedly seeks to de-escalate a conventional conflict through coercive threats, including limited nuclear use.”...** [end quote]

I was surprised to read this morning that the U.S. has quickly developed a submarine-based nuclear weapon with a range of over 7,450 miles and a yield of 5-8 kiloton (compared with the Hiroshima atom bomb, 30 kiloton). These warheads make Washington state host to the globe’s third-largest arsenal of deployed nuclear weapons — an estimated 1,120 — behind only Russia and the United States as a whole, whose stockpiles still number in the thousands. The subs are based at Bangor, which I drive past when going to the Kitsap Peninsula for shopping. Subs based at Kings Bay, Georgia, are part of the Atlantic fleet which covers the current conflict zone in Ukraine.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/times-watchdog/wha…

Putin has already threatened to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict. Many analysts say, “Nah, Putin isn’t crazy,” but I’m not so sure. I’m also not sure that a few “low yield” nukes wouldn’t blow up into a full-blown nuclear exchange.

I grew up in the 1950s and 1960s with a fear of nuclear war since my father was active Air Force Reserve. Nice to know that a nuclear base is practically in my back yard. NOT!
Wendy

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Seems like we are moving back to the idea that a nuclear war might be winnable. (Given use of the right nuclear weapons.)

I recall that Eisenhower disagreed with this idea saying survivors would be grubbing for worms.

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Putin has already threatened to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict. Many analysts say, “Nah, Putin isn’t crazy,” but I’m not so sure. I’m also not sure that a few “low yield” nukes wouldn’t blow up into a full-blown nuclear exchange.

I grew up in the 1950s and 1960s with a fear of nuclear war since my father was active Air Force Reserve. Nice to know that a nuclear base is practically in my back yard. NOT!
Wendy

  1. Putin IS that nutz. With his macho emperorwannabe stance he’s tried to portray. (See his long ago comments about how catastrophic was the USSR breakup 30 years ago and his recent images of riding horseback while shirtless.).

  2. Popping off a “low yield” nuke would force the genie well out of the bottle. It can’t be allowed to happen. Generals in the Kremlin have got to be the steadying force, and pull his plug.

  3. The comment about the base in your backyard: Reminds me of a list published several years ago of someone’s analysis of the safest ten cities in the US in the event of a nuclear exchange. The mayor of one of the safest cities on the list wrote a letter of complaint that his city had PLENTY of targets, and his city shouldn’t be on the safe city list. LOL. Can’t remember the city, or the publisher of the list.

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I read something a few days ago where they recounted a debate within the Russian military on spending more money upgrading their conventional forces. Putin’s view was that an upgrade wasn’t necessary since they had nukes.

Still, I don’t see what use the Russians would have for nukes in the Ukraine. You can do just as much damage in an urban environment with thermobaric (fuel-oil) weapons. Russia has plenty of those. The Russian military’s strategy in Syria offers a model.

https://news.yahoo.com/what-is-a-thermobaric-bomb-and-why-is…

intercst

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As an indication of how well the Russian forces are doing, the report by FT and WaPo is that they have asked the Chinese for help.

https://twitter.com/crampell/status/1503096564155305990

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Putin has already threatened to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict.

As long as Putin only nuked Ukraine, where would the fallout go? Prevailing winds blow to the northeast, so the fallout would blow into Russia and Putin’s new buddies Kazakhstan and China. They may object.

Would NATO or the US nuke Russia in retaliation? Don’t think so. That would escalate a local nuke war globally.

Nice to know that a nuclear base is practically in my back yard. NOT!

A few days ago, someone posted a map of the US with the expected density of incoming nukes marked. You could easily see where the US ICBM bases are. But, yes, the coasts, with their military bases got their share too.

I grew up in the 1950s and 1960s with a fear of nuclear war

We all saw the movies: “Fail Safe”, “On The Beach”, “Dr Strangelove”. They were mixed in with a lot of nuclear mutant and alien invasion movies, where are a lot more fun. The 50s were an amazingly paranoid time.

Some of us remember a TV miniseries from the early 80s.

World War III is a miniseries that aired on the NBC network television on January 31, 1982.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III_(miniseries)

In the miniseries, the US embargoes grain shipments to Russia, pushing the Russian population close to starvation. In retaliation, the Russians send a commando team into Alaska to blow up the oil pipeline.

The POTUS and Soviet Premier negotiate to try to defuse the situation. But the Premier is then unhorsed by a coup lead by KGB agents bent on war.

On this go, we are starting out with a KGB warmonger already in charge in Russia.

Steve

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On this go, we are starting out with a KGB warmonger already in charge in Russia.

Steve

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We do not know where the modern FSB (KGB) stands with regard to the invasion of the Ukraine. They may already be plotting to put Putin out to pasture to save their own necks and wealth.

Jaak

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As an indication of how well the Russian forces are doing, the report by FT and WaPo is that they have asked the Chinese for help.

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Asking for help shows that Putin is desperate.

Jaak

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Russia asks China for military assistance in its invasion of Ukraine, per FT

Machiavelli advised to ally yourself with a weaker partner, not a stronger one who will eat your lunch.

No one knows how it will end but the Russian military paradigm says that Ukraine will be very badly mauled.

The Captain

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China owns Russia, Putin made the free trade in for nothing.

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As long as Putin only nuked Ukraine, where would the fallout go? Prevailing winds blow to the northeast, so the fallout would blow into Russia and Putin’s new buddies Kazakhstan and China. They may object.

Ditto poison gas. Prevailing westerly winds would tend to carry poison gas to Russia. Winds the other way are rare but do happen when a storm with a low pressure area passes to the south. Winds blow counterclockwise around a low (in the northern hemisphere).

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We do not know where the modern FSB (KGB) stands with regard to the invasion of the Ukraine. They may already be plotting to put Putin out to pasture to save their own necks and wealth.

In the Stalin era, they say 20% of the population was paid informants. If you said anything out loud, you could easily end up in a Gulag somewhere. In Russia, silence is golden.