A sizable portion of the fleet Moscow uses to launch guided-missile attacks on Ukraine—and would rely on to strike adversaries in the event of a nuclear war—was damaged or destroyed in the coordinated attacks.
Game changer?
Is Putin moved to reduce demands upon Ukraine?
Putin responses with increased missile attacks?
Putin responses with nukes?
The country is reeling after Ukrainian drones are reported to have destroyed more than £5 billion worth of strategic bombers in what some pro-Kremlin commentators have described as Russia’s “Pearl Harbour”.
There is video footage from bystanding, incredulous Russians on the net.
Agree, a brilliant feat, and extremely embarrassing for the Russian leadership which may have to redirect resources towards internal security now.
There has been a string of well-planned attacks:
Ukrainians are already comparing it with other notable military successes since Russia’s full-scale invasion, including the sinking of the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, the Moskva, and the bombing of the Kerch Bridge, both in 2022, as well as a missile attack on Sevastopol harbour the following year.
Not to mention surgical „executions“ of Russian top brass on Russian ground.
I suspect it is in Ukraine’s best interest to claim responsibility for the attack. It should be quite a morale boost for Ukrainians and a public humiliation for Putin. An angry opponent is more likely to make bad decisions out of that anger rather than carefully thought out decisions. That can give Zelenskyy more opportunities to further embarrass Putin and Russia on the world stage.
I have a greater worry and have expressed it before.
USGenerals like their toys big, expensive, and chock full of nifty new technology. Now you can take down an enemy with a bunch of $1000 drones from WalMart, suitably adjusted and strapped with C4.
Like the Pearl Harbor simulations that proved you could destroy the Pacific Fleet which the generals ignored because they d8dn’t like the outcome, I fear they will ignore this threat too, given that it doesn’t involve big machinery and lots of pork producing jobs.
I have thought for a long time you could take down a ship with a cheap attack of 500 drones all at once, rather than a few multimillion dollar warplanes. Then where would our vaunted “6th fleet” or similar be? We could lose the ability to project power all over the world - and it would be an entirely different game for the good ole’ US.
Disruptive technologies have been around for a long time. I remember reports from the Yom Kippur war about how Israeli tanks were slaughtered by small AT rockets the Egyptians used. But, we still pour money into buying tanks.
Aircraft are a much softer target than ships. Ever take a look at how thin the skin of an aircraft is? Ships can be a bit stouter. This pic is apparently authentic. HMS Sussex took a direct hit from a kamikaze. The plane went splat against the side of the ship, with nothing accomplished beyond an 8 foot split in the plating. Presumably, the plane had started out with a bomb, but the bomb must have fallen/been torn off, before impact, and the plane, by itself, did not have enough kinetic energy to penetrate.
Sure, when you try to drive through the most fortified part of the ship you’re gonna end up squashed. The best bombing runs on aircraft carriers were those which went down through the deck, or which crippled the tower over to the side.
Consumer drones can carry maybe 30 ounces, commercial drones can carry up to 200 pounds. Even a few ounces of C4 or RDX would put a serious hurt on the soldiers manning a gunnery station on a ship, and a few more, appropriately “landed” could put some real dents into other parts of the ship.
And some drones have a range of over 100 miles, so you don’t really need to truck them right next to an Air Force base to have them do their job.
I bet the Russian generals are scrambling now to try to figure out how to combat this. I expect there are more than a few in the Pentagon going through the same motions.
This is unquestionably an apt comparison. This Russian description framing it as “Russia’s Pearl Harbour” continues this narrative that Ukraine attacked Russia unprovoked. The drone attack on Russian airfields, reports indicate no casualties were suffered by Russian personnel. Piloting drones across thousands of miles and multiple time zones and they didn’t kill anyone.
Putin? Putin hit Ukraine today killing women and children at a school.
Well, I’m pretty sure Russia knew how they did it before they announced it. There are multiple videos freely available on the internet showing the drones being released from the top of the trucks. And there’s even one video of Russian civilians climbing onto a truck and trying to stop the drones from launching with their bare hands!
I read somewhere that part of the reason to publicize it so much is to disrupt Russia as much as possible. And apparently it is indeed happening - they are trying to check all trucks on major roadways, and that is snarling traffic, and all truck drivers are suddenly suspicious people now because nobody knows if they may or may not be in on it.
They know element of surprise was a key part of success.
Rubbing Putins nose in the dirt is part of the fun.
Meanwhile Russia spends millions upgrading defenses on all of its military sites.
You wonder if heads will roll among all those commanders who didn’t defend their aircraft better. Remember Pearl Harbor. All those airplanes grouped together made easy targets. I guess Russia missed that lesson. Not on war footing at many bases!!
How is Russia going to escalate? Start targeting more schools and shopping centers? Send in even more soldiers in meat attacks?
Yesterday Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev said that outcome of the peace talks needed to be the complete destruction of Ukraine’s government and anyone hoping for compromise is delusional. Other Russian officials recently said that a ceasefire is out of the question and Russia intends to fight literally for forever if that’s what it takes, citing Russia’s 18th century wars with Sweden.
So, I kinda think Ukraine needs to escalate.
As an aside, times like this is when I wish the old Urkaine thread hadn’t been locked. Starting about a year ago, the chattering class began expressing big concerns about Russia inching closer to the strategic town of Pokrovsk, which is a big transportation hub. Losing it would be a major setback for Ukraine.
I noted that at current rates of progress at best it would take Russia many months to capture Pokrovsk and the effectiveness Russia’s offensive was being overstated. I occasionally updated the progress on the thread.
"When you attack an opponent’s part of their national survival system, which is their nuclear triad, that means your risk level goes up because you don’t know what the other side is going to do.“
Fortunately his boss will end this war in a single day.
