Recently, my favorite astrophysics YouTuber, Dr. Becky Smethurst of Oxford, called attention to a new paper, “The evolutionary stage of Betelgeuse inferred from its pulsation periods” by Saio et al.
Go watch Dr. Becky for the details, with animations and detailed explanations of Type II Supernovae. But the gist of the paper is that by looking at the periodic variation in Betelgeuse’s brightness, the researchers’ model suggests the coming supernova may happen in the next few decades .
There hasn’t been a supernova in our neighborhood since July 4, 1054, when Chinese astronomers observed a supernova, now labeled SN1054, that remained visible for almost two years. The remnants of that supernova are now called the Crab Nebula.