Covid killed mostly older people, which didn’t have a large Macroeconomic impact. Long Covid isn’t fatal but it’s widespread enough to have a Macroeconomic impact.
New Report Underscores the Seriousness of Long Covid
The National Academies said the condition could involve up to 200 symptoms, make it difficult for people to work and last for months or years.
By Pam Belluck, The New York Times, June 5, 2024
…
Long Covid can impact people across the life span, from children to older adults, as well as across sex, gender, racial, ethnic and other demographic groups,…
The report cited data from 2022 suggesting that nearly 18 million adults and nearly a million children in the United States have had long Covid at some point. At the time of that survey, about 8.9 million adults and 362,000 children had the condition.
Surveys showed that the prevalence of long Covid decreased in 2023 but, for unclear reasons, has risen this year. As of January, data showed nearly 7 percent of adults in the United States had long Covid… [end quote]
Wow, that’s a large proportion of the population. To see how it has impacted the work force we need to look at the Labor Force Participation Rate. Looking at the unemployment rate won’t work because people are counted as unemployed only if they are actively job seeking.
The Labor Force Participation Rate - 25-54 Yrs. is 83.5% which is higher than any time since before the 2001 recession. This has recovered completely since the pandemic.
However, the Labor Force Participation Rate - 55 Yrs. & over dropped sharply in 2020 and has not recovered.
People who become more seriously ill from their initial coronavirus infection are more likely to have long-term symptoms. Those who were sick enough to be hospitalized were two to three times as likely to develop long Covid. Many of these were older people.
But, the report said, “even individuals with a mild initial course of illness can develop long Covid with severe health effects.” And “given the much higher number of people with mild versus severe disease, they make up the great majority of people with long Covid.”
Women are about twice as likely to develop long Covid. Other risk factors include not being adequately vaccinated against the coronavirus, having preexisting medical conditions or disabilities and smoking.
The Labor Force Participation Rate Female: From 25 to 54 Years has not quite fully recovered from the Covid slump.
It’s possible that Long Covid has had a slight impact on the labor force. But I suspect that many people who can’t work due to long Covid were either pushed into early retirement or weren’t working anyway due to disabilities.
These are a lot of people who are suffering. However, the macroeconomic impact is slight because the core labor force hasn’t been impacted.
Wendy