Long Covid hits labor force

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/over-2-million-americans-arent-…

**Over 2 Million Americans Aren’t Working Due to Long Covid, Says Brookings**
**Report says the loss of work translates into $170 billion a year in lost wages**
**By Sumathi Reddy, The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 24, 2022**

**Between two million and four million Americans aren’t working due to the long-term effects of Covid-19, according to a new Brookings Institution report released Wednesday.**

**The inability to work translates to roughly $170 billion a year in lost wages, the report estimates. The report estimates that roughly 16 million Americans of working age — between 18 and 65 — have long Covid, which most groups and doctors define as wide-ranging symptoms that persist for months following an infection and can include shortness of breath, extreme fatigue and neurocognitive issues.**

**An estimated 10% to 30% of people with Covid develop the condition, according to studies and estimates from governments, hospitals, universities and doctors. It can occur after even mild cases....** [end quote]

Long Covid has a long list of symptoms. The causes may be residual infection, inflammation (resembling the cytokine storm that killed many young Covid patients), failure of tissues to use oxygen efficiently (resembling chronic fatigue syndrome) and, worst of all, autoimmune disease resembling lupus or rheumatoid arthritis. Research is ongoing. Each patient is different. They may have a combination of causes…and also have related mood disorders, like anxiety and/or depression. (Not surprising.)

The rate of long Covid in unvaccinated patients may be as high as 50% but in the vaccinated is (only!) 20%.

The U.S. Census has found that some long Covid patients are still working. But many are in real trouble because they are too sick to work but don’t qualify for disability payments.

Considering the large numbers, long Covid has real Macroeconomic impact.

It will take a while for the research to figure out how to diagnose patients and even longer how to treat them. The tests aren’t ordinary, routine tests.

Wendy

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<Between two million and four million Americans aren’t working due to the long-term effects of Covid-19, according to a new Brookings Institution report released Wednesday.>

Wendy,

If the number of disabled workers with Long COVID is 2 million or even more, we will have a hard time replacing them in the workplace, unless we can lure non-working adults into the workplace quickly.

Without being too insensitive or snarky, perhaps it is somewhat fortuitous that 2 million new “workers” just happens to be the number of undocumented adults who have been apprehended crossing the border from Mexico this year.

As of August 16, 2022:

The number of migrants arrested at the US-Mexico border has already exceeded last year’s record — and is on pace to top 2 million for the first time ever…

Border Patrol reported 181,552 arrests last month, a 5.6% drop from the 192,418 reported in June. With two months left to go in fiscal year 2022, the agency has already made more than 1.81 million arrests — well above the previous record of 1.66 million over the 12-month period ending Sept. 30 of last year. [Emphasis added throughout.]

https://nypost.com/2022/08/16/border-arrests-on-pace-to-top-…

Perhaps the US Department of Labor could implement a “worker replacement program” whereby they take an inventory of jobs left wanting due to Long Covid and transport new immigrant “trainees” who can take on the work left undone by those suffering from Long COVID.

I personally would gladly welcome the extra help. Seems the country needs as many new workers as we can find.

I’m not being sarcastic, either. Just thinking in terms of numbers.

:wink:

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So, to look at the event: COVID killed 1% of our population and long-term maimed about 2% more. The challenge I have is that a considerable percentage of our population was infected (symptomatic or not) with one or more of a number of variants, so “An estimated 10% to 30% of people with Covid develop the condition,” would result in much higher confirmed long-COVID cases.

Jeff

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Does the 2-4 million number include workers who have had to quit working to take care of a relative or spouse suffering the long term effects of COVID? If not, that number could be much higher.

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So, to look at the event: COVID killed 1% of our population and long-term maimed about 2% more. The challenge I have is that a considerable percentage of our population was infected (symptomatic or not) with one or more of a number of variants, so “An estimated 10% to 30% of people with Covid develop the condition,” would result in much higher confirmed long-COVID cases.

There are different definitions of Long Covid. The CDC estimates 2.5% of confirmed cases have symptoms lasting longer than 3 months. The OP article quotes much higher numbers: “An estimated 10% to 30% of people with Covid develop the condition”. The OP article seems to be using a more expansive definition of Long Covid. I prefer the WHO definition of post COVID-19 condition that looks for symptoms 3 months after infection that have an impact on everyday functioning.

— data —

[million]             in the US:             percent
   330                population               100%
   1.1     total confirmed Covid-19 deaths     0.3%
    3        not working due to Long Covid     0.9%
   257                vaccinated               78%
    73               unvaccinated              22%
    94      total confirmed Covid-19 cases     28%
    19     estimated affected by Long Covid    6%
 
   201               Ages 18 to 65             100%
    16     working age with Long Covid est.    8%

— links —
“Estimates of the proportion of people who had COVID-19 that go on to experience post-COVID conditions can vary:
13.3% at one month or longer after infection
2.5% at three months or longer, based on self-reporting
More than 30% at 6 months among patients who were hospitalized”
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects/…

“The WHO’s definition of post-COVID-19 differs from those that a few other agencies issued, such as the time of onset of the condition. For instance, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) use the term “post-COVID conditions” to describe symptoms of COVID-19 that persist beyond the acute phase of 4 or more weeks.”
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/who-issues-clinica…

A clinical case definition of post COVID-19 condition by a Delphi consensus, 6 October 2021
“Post COVID-19 condition occurs in individuals with a history of probable or confirmed SARS CoV-2 infection, usually 3 months from the onset of COVID-19 with symptoms and that last for at least 2 months and cannot be explained by an alternative diagnosis. Common symptoms include fatigue, shortness of breath, cognitive dysfunction but also others and generally have an impact on everyday functioning. Symptoms may be new onset following initial recovery from an acute COVID-19 episode or persist from the initial illness. Symptoms may also fluctuate or relapse over time.”
https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-Post_C…

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