My last update was thread 52430.
Switching my table below to last Friday of month tracking. This is because my main spreadsheet is week based, so tracking at true end of month involves extra work for months that don’t end on a Friday.
Year to Date:
Month Me Benchmark Beat 01/25 15.6% 8.0% + 7.6% 02/22 26.0% 13.4% +12.6% 03/29 30.9% 14.7% +16.2% YoY 27.1% 8.1% +19.0%
Its worth noting that I hit my low in the days before Christmas. Since that time, roughly 3 months, my portfolio has gained 41%, while my benchmark (based on the VOO fund) has gained only 18%. My account is now over my September high by 5%, whereas the market is still below its September highs. Wowzers!
Activity: Again, my activity level is lower than historical, and I still think this is a good thing for me. For example, if I had done nothing since January 1 I would be a nearly identical to today. However, I am 17% higher than where I would have been from before I found high growth 7 months ago. So… high growth is helping me absolutely, but my trading frequency this year seems to neither have helped nor hindered me. I think this means it’s good to change things up, just not too often.
Sold GH (entire stake) Buy ESTC (1.8% more, to 5% total) Buy TEAM (3.0% stake) Sell NTNX (entire stake) Buy MDB (6.0% stake, getting back in) Trim AMZN, PYPL to lower allocations Buy SMAR (3.3% stake) Buy SHOP (2.7% stake)
TICKER ALLOC. YTD ====== ====== === PSJ 10.8% 23.4% ZS 9.7% 80.6% TWLO 9.4% 44.0% TTD 8.5% 70.2% MDB 8.4% 75.8% AYX 8.4% 41.0% OKTA 6.2% 29.5% CRM 5.7% 15.7% AMZN 5.4% 18.4% PYPL 4.9% 23.3% ESTC 4.3% 12.0% SQ 4.2% 33.1% Cash 3.2% 0 SMAR 2.8% 64.2% TEAM 2.8% 26.1% ZUO 2.7% 10.4% SHOP 2.6% 49.4%
MDB: I was one of those who sold after a day of contemplation over the Lyft fiasco. After 2 more days I began to think I made a mistake. And I got my chance to buy back in on the day our stocks dropped hard due to the OKTA down-grade. The first time I panic sold over AMZN I was able to buy back in under my sell price. This time I was able to get back in just a wee bit above my sell price. I’ve been lucky twice so far on this stock and I need to hold to my convictions on this.
NTNX: Sold out for good on this stock. I’ve struggled to make any profit on this stock and had my last straw.
TEAM: Been eyeing this stock for some time now, mostly because of how often we use their software at work and how valuable we find it. Stuff this good to use simply has to grow in value right? Now I just need to see if the stock is as good as the software.
GH: Got out after a good quick profit because, frankly, I don’t have the stomach for biotechs. Too bad I did this before it’s big pop though! I’m unlikely to get back in however.
AMZN, PYPL: Trimmed both down to 5% allocations. Add in CRM to the mix, they are the lone hold-outs from my large cap days. At times I tell myself these are very high quality companies, keep them. At other times I tell myself “they fell as fast as the SaaS names but climbed back up slower”, which means they are not very good as buffers against volatility. In the words of Pooh, “what to do, what to do”. At the end of the day, names like this help me sleep well at night, and there is obvious value in that. Plus these names are no slouches in ROI. No harm in keeping these names.
PSJ, ARKK: I hold PSJ for diversification across the software and innovation spaces w/o having to buy a ton of names myself. I have an upper-limit to how much allocation I want any given single stock to be, and only so many stocks grab my attention. This means I have money left over that I need to do something, and this is where it goes. I tried ARKK first in my 401k, and then in my IRA. Ended up selling out of it in both. After looking at it’s holdings I’m simply not interested in the companies they are investing in. PSJ is a different animal and I’m quite happy with its investing strategy and continue to hold in both accounts.
NVDA: I got out earlier this year with a 30% (overall) loss in a name that used to be my number 1 holding. The final straw for me was the company’s seeming inability to deal with crypto fall-out and inventory. It seemed like a rookie mistake to me, even though I highly believe in the company. So far this year it is up as high as my overall portfolio and I’m wondering if that is a lesson, when your conviction is that high, you stick with something. Didn’t I learn that with MDB?
SMAR, ZUO, TEAM, ESTC, SHOP: These are my lowest conviction names. Shopify is one of those that I thought had run up as far as it would go, and boy was I wrong. Atlassian is one of those companies who makes tools that make my work-life so much better, but that does not mean the stock is therefor one to invest in. Same with Elastic Search, great to use at work but needs to prove itself as a stock to own. And ZUO and SMAR are try-outs for me that I still have not made my mind up about. I’m not expecting to sell any of these soon but I am watching them.
I struggle at times with the risk/volatility compared to my long-term targets for growth. With a goal of 16% CAGR over a 15 year time horizon, I certainly don’t need to be as aggressive as I am currently. In fact, many retirement calculators say I need only a 10% CAGR to meet my needs. That means I can cut back on risk and still reach my goals. THAT IS GOOD! However, lots of things can happen over 15 years. I could get forced into early retirement, for example. At which case I need more money, sooner, than my “target” growth rate will give me. At least however, over the last 12 months, my worries about being under-funded for retirement are gone, and now my worries are about how fast can I tolerate it rising without the risk driving me mad? Good problem to have!