6/24/25 - Bad Omen?
I am starting to feel smart and the VIX is starting to get low. Sounds like a recipe for a correction to me. So we beat on, boats against the current.
Stellar day, finishing within a hair of daily high, coming close the 2025 highs from Feb. What more could you want?
6/25/25 - Duck Market?
Relatively quiet day on top of the water, but some turbulence underneath.
Naz avoids a “stalling day” with slightly high volume. No damage. Russell turned away at its 200dma. Some growth stocks starting to get harder to hold. Heat stocks CRCL and CRWV under pressure. TOST was looking to breakout but fell 7%. RDDT had a downside reversal.
6/26/25 - Close to You
Market almost set record highs today. Had strong days with a strong finish at daily highs.
Distribution days are down to 2 on Naz and 5 on S&P due to 25-day age limit or 5% increase since the d-day. This gives us more confidence to invest in good breakouts.
It seems there are a number of things that are assumed to go right: Big Beautiful Bill, Ceasefire, actual destruction of Iran enriched uranium, more tariff delays. If on blows up, Cinderella’s coach will turn into a pumpkin.
We can only play it day by day.
6/27/25: (Fri) - Sweet Week
We started the week with a test of the 21dma, and then nothing but up. Naz tried to sell off Friday around 1:30, but the bulls came back in a pushed it up. Low remained above the 20,000 mark, and the 50dma is about to cross above the 200dma.
Webby says this crossover is not a “signal, but a condition”. It is just reinforcing the trend. Speaking of trends, the power trend is still strong.
S&P was almost as strong, it had one tiny red day, but also finished at record highs and its 50dma is moving up toward the 200dma.
I the Friday video, Webby reminded us of the simplicity and significance of 21dma. We tested on Monday and then took off. When in this nice power trend, press the gas. Position traders should let their positions run. If it had gone below the 21dma, we could have had a “waterfall” of selling.
Webby is heavy in the ETFs that are working, QQQ, TQQQ, UPRO, etc. He feels they are working better than trying to pick individual stocks right now. (but too extended to buy now).
Going below this week’s low would be abnormal.
Markets close early Thursday and closed Friday, but international markets still open, so we will play catch up on the following Monday.
6/30/25 - Back to Normal
I noticed odd action in the market Friday, market was up, but all the “heat” stocks were down, including PLTR. Monday, IBD noted that the Russell indexes rebalanced Friday and that was why PLTR seemed to “plummet”. So, I assume that was true for others as today’s up market was accompanied by heat stocks “all” moving up.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average wrapped up June trade by rising 0.6%. The S&P 500 marked a record close, gaining 0.5% from Friday’s record finish. The Nasdaq made a similar move, setting a new all-time high and rising 0.5% at the close.
IBD:
According to Dow Jones Market Data, July has been the strongest month on average for both Dow stocks and the S&P 500. The Dow industrials have gained 1.5% on average in July, based on data dating back to 1897. The S&P 500 has risen by an average of 1.7% in July, based on data going back to 1928. (December used to wear the crown)
Heat Check: SOFI, DAVE, HNGE, AEVA, MGNI, HOOD, SEZL, SOFI, INOQ
Maybe we are in for some chop. It is to early to tell but it looks like the futures are down so far today.
7/1/25 July Surprise
I heard someone say this was the first July 1 down day for S&P in 15 years. S&P was only down 0.1%, but Naz was down as much as 1.3% but came back to only be off 0.8%
I felt the pain in all my growth stocks, many off 3-5%: HWM, MELI, NFLX, AMD, NET, SPOT, etc.
Word on the street is that big funds did major window dressing at the end of the quarter. But somehow, it seems they had all decided to shift to the down-trodden stocks like UPS, UNH and smaller stocks found in MDY and IWM, which both had very good days.
Have they made their moves, or is there more pain and rotation. Futures are flatish at 7:49am on 7/2, so maybe it was one day.
Many of my stocks are sitting on or near the 21dma, it will be interesting to see if that holds.
Vol on Naz was higher, so it picked up a distribution day to bring count to 2 with 5 on the S&P. Nothing to worry too much about, but IBD always reminds us that when distribution days become clustered, they are more worrisome.
Among financial ETFs, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) jumped 3.4%, and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) rallied 2.9%.
7/2/25 - Back In Black
After yesterday’s odd rotation and sell off in successful stocks, today looked like a return to normal.
Nasdaq composite gained 0.9% and made an all-time high of 20,397. At that price, the composite has now risen as much as 5.6% for the year. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% on Wednesday, also marking a record-high close.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) exchange traded fund gained 0.7%. It nearly recouped all of Monday’s 0.8% drop. Indeed, action by the highly popular ETF has stayed positive since it tested support at the rising 21-day exponential moving average on June 23.
The Russell 2000 rose more than 1.2%. The IWM closed above the 200dma for the second day and its lows was above the line as well. Perhaps this is really the time small caps will perform for a long stretch. But, Fed makes decision on rate cuts in July, and if they pass, IWM may breakdown and cry again.
The Labor Department is scheduled to release the June jobs report at 8:30 a.m.
7/3/25 Half-day. Friday closed
Record highs for Naz and S&P as investors must be feeling patriotic going into the long weekend. Or the big boys are already off and Robinhood traders are driving us up with leveraged index options.
Of note, the Naz and S&P have advanced 5% or more from some distribution days, so they are dropped from the count, leaving the Naz with 1 and the S&P with 2. This can make investors a little less worried. Exposure still 80-100%
7/10/25 - Markets hit new highs while cyber dies.
Another good day for the markets on the surface, but cyber stocks tanked in what seems to be another day of rotation out of winners near their highs. Check out charts for FTNT, PANW, ZS, CYBR, RBRK, CRWD.
Blue chips on the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day up 0.4%, or 192 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 index ended 0.5% higher. (More leadership from small caps)
futures down about 0.4% on more Trump Tariffs announcements.
7/16/25 - Trump Dump and Jump
It was leaked that Trump would fire Powell, and the market dumped, then Trump said that was “highly unlikely” and the markets rallied to the close. Was this a trail ballon to see what the market would do? Either way, the market sent a message, and Trump seemed to receive it.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite closed with gains of around 0.3%, and breadth improved by the close. Russell up 1%
TSM, NFLX report Thursday.
At 8:30 am. ET, investors will get June retail sales, the July Philly Fed manufacturing index and the latest weekly jobless claims
There were some really hot “meme” stocks today: CRCL, SBET, RGTI, JOBY, GLXY, CAI, SMR, RKLB, MNTN. Somebody is feeling giddy, but I’m sure nothing could go wrong.
7/21/25
Naz and SPY gapped up at the open, rose and then fell to the opening price by end of the day, but they were still up and closed at new record highs. Still above 21dma and still in a strong power trend. Small caps were losers again. Seems like they can’t do anything until we see an actual rate cut.
NLR ETF (Nukes and Uranium) had a downside reversal which was also an outside day. A lot of meme stocks on my watchlists were hurt.
7/25/25 (Fri) Slow Ride…
New record highs for S&P and Naz, with 0.4 and .24% gains respectively. Nice and quiet.
Big news is earnings:
Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) headline a mammoth week of earnings. Microsoft, Meta and Amazon comments on artificial intelligence monetization and capital spending will likely have a huge impact on the broader AI sector, following results from fellow hyperscaler and Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL). Meta stock could be actionable after results. results from chip plays Arm Holdings (ARM) and KLA Corp. (KLAC) well as data-center infrastructure plays such as Vertiv (VRT) — will be AI drivers this coming week. Spotify (SPOT), Booking Holding (BKNG), Exelixis (EXEL) and Visa (V) all could be actionable following earnings.
7/29/25:
Markets set new highs, then have downside reversal to finish below yesterday’s lows., but really just waiting for big earnings this week.
Wed: Fed speak at 2PM and GDP data at 8:30am. Muhammad el-Erian has pointed out that Powell causes more market volatility in his speeches than any other Fed Chair. So be careful.
Wed Earnings of note: META, MSFT, ARM, HOOD, VRT, CVNA
7/30/25 - Powell shakes our money maker.
Like I said yesterday, Powell really causes volatility when he speaks. He drove the market down today, then answered questions in a way the let it reverse back up. Naz finished positive and S&P almost broke even.
MSFT and META crushed earnings, so the market will be happy tomorrow. AMZN reports after hours Thursday.
PCE Friday.
7/31/25
I did not like the feeling I got from today. There have been some big earnings winners and losers, but more and more it seems like big tech is pulling the wagon while the little guys are falling off the wagon.
Naz was almost flat, but the small-cap Russell 2000 and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) both fell 0.9%, while the First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQEW) skidded 1.75%. All closed below their 21-day moving averages for the first time since April 23.
With almost all of the Big Tech done reporting, are we out of good news? We are still above the 21 on the indexes, so it all seems fine, but will we test it and will it hold?
I am moving up stops and adding some new stops. It has been a great run, can’t go forever without a rest. Not trying to predict, but to be more ready.
8/1/25 - Turn out the lights, that party’s over
or is it?
S&P and Naz below 21dma for first time since early April. RSP closed below 21dma Thursday and then fell below and finally closed above 50dma Friday. Is that a little ray of hope. QQEW and IWM closed below 21dma Thursday and closed below 50dma Friday.
• Webby Video:
○ Looking at the action from a swing-trader point of view: Naz reversed down on Tuesday, so swing trader service reduced exposures. Wed was a slightly positive day, which was a bit on an expectation breaker. So, they slowed down the selling on Swing Trader service.
○ Thursday started with a strong gap up, so swing trader did not want to fight that and they added a little exposure early. But the market then turned south and they realized the trade was not working, so you start reducing your position substantially. Webby went “net short” buy buying the SQQQs. Swing trader had been on margin for a long time during this power trend, but now they are at 30% exposure. ON Friday they only had to do a little selling.
○ Position traders would have sold less, maybe reduce to 60-80%, Rank all your stocks frequently and sell the lower ranked ones first.
○ There may still be opportunities to buy in this market, but you should only be buying “A-class” stocks, great fundamentals and great set-up (including longer period chart action)
○ Webby really likes META and is looking for an upside reversal to buy. But it needs bounce off a price that makes sense, or come down, stabilize and the start moving up. “A” type of stock.
○ The weekly candle charts show the major indexes are not broken, it is just one bad candle for now. If next week’s candle closes below this week, that might be a downtrend. But be open to all possibilities. If there is some kind of news this weekend and the market goes above Friday’s high, then Webby will be gunning it. Or, later in the week we might set a low (below Friday low) and have an upside reversal. Webby loves those because they give a simple stop loss price of the low. Another sign is the low of the day staying above the 21dma, that would set positive expectations.
○ Same for the regression channels. Naz has come down and touched the 1 std deviation line on Webby’s regression channel. If it rebounds off that and takes out Friday’s high, he will "be gunning it" Then, the expectation is that it will quickly go back up the to 50% regression line and overshoot it. So, Webby would press on the gas on that rebound and sell if the expectation is broken.
This was one of the longest streaks of lows above the 21dma (63), only five other longer streaks, so it was time.
8/4/25 - Futures up. QQQ and SPY futures show the ETFs opening right on the 21dma.
What would Webby do? He is looking for the indexes to move above Friday highs to become aggressive again. If the indexes go above the 21dma and then reverse down, I think he will get negative (SQQQ) fast. He bought SQQQ Thursday and sold them Friday as I recall him saying.
As noted above, the indexes are right on the lower line of his regression channel, and he expects they could bounce and quickly move to the middle trend line.
8/4/25 - Update
The indexes gapped up, kept going and finished at highs. Expectations are that stocks and indexes that finish at highs will continue the move the next day.
Naz and S&P finished above the 21dma with the low of the Naz (gap up) staying above the 21dma, a nice sign of strength.
In tonight’s video, we were reminded that 0n days like Friday, Justin likes to look for stocks that are closing at the upper end of their range when the market is way down, these will lead to great opportunities to buy if the market comes back like it did today.
When scanning through stocks today, I did notice that a lot of the winners had finished well, or even positive Friday. Remember that next time.
PLTR reported after hours and was up 5%. Tuesday, AMD and ALAB report as they try to keep surfing the AI tsunami.
8/5/25: Cowabunga, dude!
Surf was up tonight off the AI shore…ANET up 13%, ALAB up 15%, but AMD had a little wipeout, down 6%
S&P down 0.5% and sitting on 21dma. Naz down 0.66% and a little above 21dma. Small caps (IWM and IWO) were up about 0.5%. Is this a sign of rate cut certainty?
Naz has 2 distribution days and S&P 5, but not clustered and not severe. Recommended exposure 60-80%
8/6/25 - Coin Flips
Earnings seem to be coin flips these days, either 15% up or 15% down.
Markets have recovered well from the Friday swoon. Naz lows above 21dma for third day. Alli points out that we are above the 50% retracement of Thursday’s peak to Friday’s low. That is a good thing to watch.
Recommended exposure back to 80-100% after this show of resilience. Distribution days Naz 2, S&P 5.
Futures up a bit, but that can change with morning news. VST and CEG report before the bell.
8/11/25 - minor pause.
This mornings (8/12), inflation came in lower than expected. Combined with another 90 day tariff delay for China and market futures are up nicely.
8/12/25 - New Highs, including high expectations for rate cuts.
Raw notes…
The Nasdaq composite gapped up at the open but quickly gave back gains during the first 30 minutes of trading. But the index shifted into serious rally mode after that and never looked back, ending up 1.4% in lower volume. The Nasdaq made another all-time closing high, and winners beat losers on the Nasdaq exchange by just over 2.5-to-1.
but even with the Nasdaq’s solid gain Tuesday, the index is only 6.3% above its 50-day line. The Nasdaq was more than 8% above its 50-day line in early July, just ahead of a sharp pullback.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 1.1% in Tuesday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index also climbed 1.1%. The Nasdaq composite popped 1.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 soared 3%, hitting its best level in nearly six months
The Dow Jones and especially Russell 2000 regained their 21-day moving averages. So did the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), up 1.3%
The improved market breadth was also reflected in leadership, with financials, airlines and casinos among the areas showing strength.
8/15/25 - Waiting for Fed?
Economic data on deck next week includes housing starts and building permits data on Tuesday, and S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI readings on Thursday. But the key moment will be when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives his speech at the central bank’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Friday. Powell has used that event to signal key policy changes in prior years.
The Nasdaq composite fell 0.4% Friday but still notched a weekly gain of 0.8%. The tech-heavy index has risen in four out of the past five weeks and is more than 5% above its 50-day moving average. It also holds a gain of 12% for the year so far.
The S&P 500 reversed lower to end the day down 0.3%. But the benchmark index managed a weekly lift of 0.9% and is now up in six of the past eight weeks. It is holding near all-time high levels and is clear of its short-term and major moving averages. Its gain for 2025 now sits at 9.7%
Market Index lows of the day still above the 21dma = still bullish
A number of recent stalling days may be indicating we are running out of gas (near the highs)
Study these (Naz) historical charts over time. Go to the date, step though one day at a time and figure out how you would have been trading it. These are dates where lows had been above 21dma for an extended time and then went below 21dma, like we had recently. 9/26/80, 12/13/82, 2/8/93/,8/12/97, 6/19/78, 4/25/91, 1/12/99, and 8/1/23
Seeing some rotation into XBI and XHB/ITB.
Webby’s definition of a setup day (see JETS),
So today it was firming up there in the Northern hemisphere. And this is what I call a set up day. When you have a little tight spread closing near your highs, near an area of resistance, just something I’ve coined a long time ago as a set up day.
Meaning it’s setting up to break out the next day. Doesn’t mean it will, but this is where you do a token buy or a normal buy here. And then if it breaks out, then you can add. so that’s where I’m looking. again, ⁓ goes with that theme of stocks that have been sitting out for a while and the things are changing. And I think that was a CPI or something that came out that pushed this higher plus the, you know, the Spirit Airlines
SPOTify looks like money coming back into it. Webby as started buying. A swing trader will have a stop loss below 50dma, a position trader might give it more leeway, down to low of Thursday.
AS setting up a tight flat base (Flag?) for earnings on Tuesday.
Weekly candle on SPY looks great, but an Naz, shows stalling
8/21/25 - Put on your seat belts boys, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
After a big down day Tuesday, the markets staged a very nice upside reversal on Wednesday. A number of leading stocks found support or reversed up from key support levels, like the 21dma. Today the markets were negative by about 0.3%, with the Russell up a bit.
Markets a new eagerly awaiting Powell (10m). Super-dovish words will push the market up and hawkish, stay-the-course words should ding it. Then we start waiting for NVDA earnings next week. So much uncertainty.
Two black swan events that won’t happen: Powell resigns or Powell say 50bps cut in September, either scenario would shoot the market up.
There are 5 distribution days on the Naz and 6 on the S&P, today’s lighter volume prevented the count from going higher. Recommended exposure is 60-80%
