Market Trend Indicators for 2023

Investing Strategies Foolish Workshop
1
More detail: Market Trend Indicators (Intermediate-Term)
Price Data: adjusted(Inc Splits, Exc Div): When a company issues a dividend its price usually drops.
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PPO’s: Difference between two SMA’s or EMA’s of a security’s price expressed as a percentage.
IJR: Daily PO’s(5/25, 10/50, 15/75)
MDY: Daily PO’s(10/50, 15/75, 20/100)
RSP: Daily PO’s(20/100, 25/125, 30/150)
ITOT: Daily PO’s(30/150, 35/175, 40/200)
Criteria(SMA): PO’s: SELLIF: PO(slow) & PO(inter) < 0, BuyIF: PO(inter) & PO(fast) > 0
.SPx: Daily MACD(40,200,8) Signal Line
Criteria(SPx): MACD SELLIF: (EMA40d-EMA200d) < 0, BuyIF: (EMA8d) > 0
Allocation: Rev Nov-2019: ( IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20% )
SPY: Rev Aug-2020 Weekly MACD(9,27,3) Signal Line (Tuned with 15y history)
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MAC(10m): MAC(TP,SMA) where Typical Price(TP) is Average (high,low,close) and SMA(TP,210d)
Criteria: Rev Aug-2020: SELLlF: Negative 2 weeks(10d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
Allocation: Rev Nov-2019: ( IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20% )
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Other MAC: Intermediate-Term Moving Average Crossover (MAC) Trend Indicators
Criteria: Equal-Weighted Allocation with minimum Whipsaw (3 of 5 Pre-Set time horizons by FATP)
MAC(TP,SMA): Typical Price (TP) and Simple Moving Average SMA(TP,XXd) Crossovers
(50d,200d): Rev Mar-2022: SELLlF: Negative 1 week(5d), BuyIF: Positive 1 Day
(TP,210d): Rev Aug-2020: SELLlF: Negative 2 week(10d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
(TP,50d): Rev Aug-2020: SELLlF: Negative 2 week(10d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
Allocation: Rev Jun-2021: (50d)=33%, (4w,9w,18w)=0%, (210d)=33%, (50d,200d)=33%, (21w,50w)=0%
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DBE: Dying Bullish Euphoria DBE(99d,5m)
Criteria(99d): Rev Sept-2019: Intraday High prices for 99d
Criteria(5m): Rev Jan-2021 SELLlF: No New High prices for 5m ( High/Low Channel - HC99d uptick )
Allocation: Rev Nov-2019 IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20%
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More detail: TMF Foolish Workshop
https://boards.fool.com/Message.aspx?mid=35013503
https://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2021-34717304.aspx?sort=whole
https://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2020-34398729.aspx?sort=threaded
https://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2019-34123771.aspx?sort=threaded
http://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2018-32943095.aspx?sort=threaded
http://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2017-32543430.aspx?sort=threaded
http://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2016-32063703.aspx?sort=threaded
http://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2015-31564016.aspx?sort=threaded
http://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-mi-screens-31215761.aspx?sort=threaded

GD_

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3
31-Jan-2023 PO’s PO’s MAC(10m) MAC(10m) DBE(99d,5m) DBE(99d,5m) Other_MAC Other_MAC Buy&Hold
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Status Summary Status LastD_Chg Status LastD_Chg Status LastD_Chg Last_MAC LastD_Chg Last_Chg(TTM)
SP600 (IJR) Daily Bullish 17-Jan-23 Bullish 18-Jan-23 BEARish 11-Apr-22 Bullish 18-Jan-23 06-Apr-22
SP400 (MDY) Daily Bullish 11-Nov-22 Bullish 12-Jan-23 Bullish 26-Jan-23 Bullish 12-Jan-23 12-Apr-22
SP500EW (RSP) Daily Bullish 23-Nov-22 Bullish 12-Jan-23 Bullish 26-Jan-23 Bullish 12-Jan-23 11-May-22
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily BEARish 24-Feb-22 Bullish 27-Jan-23 BEARish 06-Jun-22 Bullish 27-Jan-23 28-Apr-22
SP500 (.SPx) Daily BEARish 29-Apr-22 Bullish 27-Jan-23 BEARish 06-Jun-22 Bullish 27-Jan-23 11-May-22
Cash_Alloc(Eq-Wt) = 2 40% 0 0% 3 60% 2 13.3%
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Price Derivatives PPO(Inter) PPO(Slo) (TP,SMA) SMA(TP,210) %Off_Hi(99) Since_NewHi Last_MAC Last_MAC Last_Price
SP600 (IJR) Daily 2.6% 3.3% 4.7% 97.70 -0.1% 310 (TP,210d) 4.7% 102.72
SP400 (MDY) Daily 4.1% 4.5% 6.6% 446.98 NEW 3 (TP,50d) 4.2% 477.77
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 3.0% 2.7% 4.9% 142.87 NEW 3 (TP,210d) 4.9% 150.18
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily -0.2% -0.8% 1.6% 88.27 -0.9% 271 (TP,210d) 1.6% 89.89
SP500 (.SPx) Daily -1.2% -1.6% 1.4% 3979.02 -0.6% 271 (TP,210d) 1.4% 4040.53
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10Yr Draw Downs (TTM<0) MaxDD AvgDD MaxDD AvgDD MaxDD AvgDD MaxDD AvgDD AvgDD
SP600 (IJR) Daily -23% -8.5% -26% -8.7% -40% -9.2% -31% -9.7% -9.9%
SP400 (MDY) Daily -26% -8.6% -18% -6.5% -38% -6.5% -27% -8.4% -8.0%
SP500EW (RSP) Daily -25% -7.4% -22% -7.4% -32% -4.8% -24% -7.9% -6.9%
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily -26% -9.2% -22% -8.3% -22% -5.9% -23% -7.9% -8.4%
SP500 (.SPx) Daily -17% -7.0% -19% -8.6% -20% -4.8% -24% -8.1% -7.4%
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10Yr CAGR (Ex. Div.) Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Buy&Hold
SP600 (IJR) Daily 6.1% 3.1% 5.2% 4.0% 7.4% 1.8% 4.8% 4.4% 9.4%
SP400 (MDY) Daily 4.5% 4.4% 5.6% 3.3% 7.7% 1.3% 5.2% 3.7% 9.1%
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 6.6% 3.4% 6.4% 3.6% 8.7% 1.3% 7.3% 2.7% 10.2%
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 5.7% 4.2% 6.8% 3.1% 9.8% 0.3% 6.4% 3.5% 10.1%
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 6.6% 3.5% 6.5% 3.6% 9.8% 0.6% 6.1% 4.1% 10.4%
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10Yr $ROI (Ex. Div.) Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Buy&Hold
SP600 (IJR) Daily 8,087 3,581 6,586 4,811 10,494 1,986 5,975 5,415 14,565
SP400 (MDY) Daily 5,530 5,393 7,231 3,874 10,907 1,434 6,586 4,444 13,906
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 8,913 3,948 8,598 4,184 13,130 1,405 10,307 3,058 16,380
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 7,366 5,081 9,238 3,614 15,530 259 8,658 4,062 16,190
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 9,017 4,147 8,885 4,246 15,445 573 8,131 4,875 16,904
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Avg Signals (10yr) /Year %Bearish/Yr /Year %Bearish/Yr /Year %Bearish/Yr /Year %Bearish/Yr Chg(TTM)/Yr
SP600 (IJR) Daily 5.4 28% 1.8 28% 0.7 22% 2.7 27% 1.5
SP400 (MDY) Daily 3.6 24% 1.6 22% 1.0 14% 2.5 23% 2.3
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 1.8 21% 1.4 18% 1.0 14% 1.9 20% 1.5
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 0.9 20% 1.0 18% 0.7 13% 1.9 19% 1.1
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 1.1 18% 1.2 17% 0.7 12% 2.0 18% 1.0
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28-Feb-2023 PO’s PO’s MAC(10m) MAC(10m) DBE(99d,5m) DBE(99d,5m) Other_MAC Other_MAC Buy&Hold
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Status Summary Status LastD_Chg Status LastD_Chg Status LastD_Chg Last_MAC LastD_Chg Last_Chg(TTM)
SP600 (IJR) Daily Bullish 17-Jan-23 Bullish 18-Jan-23 Bullish 31-Jan-23 Bullish 18-Jan-23 06-Apr-22
SP400 (MDY) Daily Bullish 11-Nov-22 Bullish 12-Jan-23 Bullish 26-Jan-23 Bullish 12-Jan-23 01-Feb-23
SP500EW (RSP) Daily Bullish 23-Nov-22 Bullish 12-Jan-23 Bullish 26-Jan-23 Bullish 12-Jan-23 11-May-22
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily Bullish 02-Feb-23 Bullish 27-Jan-23 Bullish 01-Feb-23 Bullish 06-Feb-23 28-Apr-22
SP500 (.SPx) Daily Bullish 16-Feb-23 Bullish 27-Jan-23 Bullish 01-Feb-23 Bullish 03-Feb-23 11-May-22
Cash_Alloc(Eq-Wt) = 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0.0%
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Price Derivatives PPO(Inter) PPO(Slo) (TP,SMA) SMA(TP,210) %Off_Hi(99) Since_NewHi Last_MAC Last_MAC Last_Price
SP600 (IJR) Daily 3.2% 3.8% 5.2% 97.62 -4.3% 17 (TP,210d) 5.2% 102.39
SP400 (MDY) Daily 3.8% 6.4% 6.4% 447.35 -3.7% 18 (TP,50d) 2.1% 474.75
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 5.9% 4.9% 3.2% 142.42 -4.4% 18 (TP,210d) 3.2% 146.60
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 2.9% 2.0% 1.4% 87.59 -4.0% 18 (50d,200d) 1.0% 88.58
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 3947.86 -4.0% 18 (50d,200d) 1.0% 3970.15
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10Yr Draw Downs (TTM<0) MaxDD AvgDD MaxDD AvgDD MaxDD AvgDD MaxDD AvgDD AvgDD
SP600 (IJR) Daily -23% -8.7% -26% -8.7% -40% -9.2% -31% -9.8% -9.8%
SP400 (MDY) Daily -26% -8.7% -18% -6.5% -38% -6.5% -27% -8.4% -7.9%
SP500EW (RSP) Daily -25% -7.3% -22% -7.4% -32% -4.8% -24% -8.0% -6.8%
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily -26% -9.1% -22% -8.2% -22% -6.0% -23% -8.0% -8.4%
SP500 (.SPx) Daily -17% -7.2% -19% -8.5% -20% -4.9% -24% -8.2% -7.4%
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10Yr CAGR (Ex. Div.) Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Buy&Hold
SP600 (IJR) Daily 6.2% 3.1% 5.3% 4.0% 7.4% 1.9% 4.9% 4.4% 9.5%
SP400 (MDY) Daily 4.5% 4.4% 5.6% 3.3% 7.7% 1.3% 5.2% 3.7% 9.1%
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 6.4% 3.4% 6.2% 3.6% 8.5% 1.3% 7.1% 2.7% 10.0%
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 5.2% 4.6% 6.6% 3.1% 9.5% 0.4% 6.2% 3.5% 10.0%
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 6.3% 3.7% 6.5% 3.6% 9.5% 0.7% 5.9% 4.1% 10.3%
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10Yr $ROI (Ex. Div.) Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Buy&Hold
SP600 (IJR) Daily 8,196 3,581 6,686 4,811 10,494 2,058 6,071 5,415 14,713
SP400 (MDY) Daily 5,574 5,393 7,279 3,874 10,966 1,434 6,633 4,444 13,973
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 8,564 3,948 8,255 4,184 12,704 1,405 9,932 3,058 15,893
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 6,544 5,633 8,997 3,614 14,769 442 8,313 4,161 15,863
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 8,424 4,393 8,613 4,246 14,673 747 7,705 5,009 16,517
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Avg Signals (10yr) /Year %Bearish/Yr /Year %Bearish/Yr /Year %Bearish/Yr /Year %Bearish/Yr Chg(TTM)/Yr
SP600 (IJR) Daily 5.4 28% 1.8 28% 0.8 22% 2.7 27% 1.5
SP400 (MDY) Daily 3.6 24% 1.6 22% 1.0 14% 2.5 23% 2.4
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 1.8 21% 1.4 18% 1.0 14% 1.9 20% 1.5
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 1.0 20% 1.0 18% 0.8 13% 1.9 19% 1.1
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 1.2 18% 1.2 17% 0.8 12% 2.0 18% 1.0
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GD_

4 Likes
5

The Volatility has been higher over the last 3-5 years and review of “Market Trend Indicators” were overdue. Changes of PPO’s to new APO’s improved 10yr Draw Down and Returns.
The latest Values will be posted tommorow the last day of the month.

More detail: Market Trend Indicators (Intermediate-Term)
Price Data: adjusted(Inc Splits, Exc Div): When a Fund issues a dividend then it’s price usually drops.
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APO: Rev Mar-2023 Absolute Price Oscillator - Difference between two EMA’s of a security’s price.
Criteria: Rev Mar-2023 PO’s: SELLIF: PO(20,100) & PO(25,125) < 0, BuyIF: PO(25,125) & PO(30,150) > 0
Allocation: Rev Nov-2019: ( IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20% )
SPY: Rev Aug-2020 Weekly MACD(9,27,3) Signal Line (Tuned with 15y history)
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MAC(10m): MAC(TP,SMA) where Typical Price(TP) is Average (high,low,close) and SMA(TP,210d)
Criteria: Rev Mar-2023: SELLlF: Negative 1 week(5d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
Allocation: Rev Nov-2019: ( IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20% )
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Other MAC: Intermediate-Term Moving Average Crossover (MAC) Trend Indicators
Criteria: Equal-Weighted Allocation with minimum Whipsaw (3 of 5 Pre-Set time horizons by FATP)
MAC(TP,SMA): Typical Price (TP) and Simple Moving Average SMA(TP,XXd) Crossovers
(50d,200d): Rev Mar-2022: SELLlF: Negative 1 week(5d), BuyIF: Positive 1 Day
(TP,200d): Rev Mar-2023: SELLlF: Negative 1 week(5d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
(TP,50d): Rev Aug-2020: SELLlF: Negative 2 week(10d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
Allocation: Rev Jun-2021: (50d)=33%, (4w,9w,18w)=0%, (210d)=33%, (50d,200d)=33%, (21w,50w)=0%
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DBE: Dying Bullish Euphoria DBE(99d,5m)
Criteria(99d): Rev Sept-2019: Intraday High prices for 99d
Criteria(5m): Rev Jan-2021 SELLlF: No New High prices for 5m ( High/Low Channel - HC99d uptick )
Allocation: Rev Nov-2019 IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20%
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GD_

1 Like
6

3/30/2023 The Volatility has been higher over the last 3-5 years and review of “Market Trend Indicators” were overdue. Changes of PPO’s to new APO’s improved 10yr Draw Down and Returns.

Friday, March 31, 2023 PO’s(6m) PO’s(6m) MAC(10m) MAC(10m) DBE(99d,5m) DBE(99d,5m) Other_MAC Other_MAC Buy&Hold
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Status Summary Status LastD_Chg Status LastD_Chg Status LastD_Chg Last_MAC LastD_Chg Last_Chg(TTM)
SP600 (IJR) Daily BEARish 20-Mar-23 BEARish 16-Mar-23 Bullish 31-Jan-23 BEARish 21-Mar-23 06-Apr-22
SP400 (MDY) Daily BEARish 22-Mar-23 BEARish 28-Mar-23 Bullish 26-Jan-23 BEARish 22-Mar-23 06-Mar-23
SP500EW (RSP) Daily BEARish 17-Mar-23 BEARish 16-Mar-23 Bullish 26-Jan-23 BEARish 20-Mar-23 11-May-22
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily BEARish 22-Mar-23 BEARish 16-Mar-23 Bullish 01-Feb-23 Bullish 31-Mar-23 28-Apr-22
SP500 (.SPx) Daily Bullish 30-Mar-23 Bullish 24-Mar-23 Bullish 01-Feb-23 Bullish 24-Mar-23 11-May-22
Cash_Alloc(Eq-Wt) = 4 80% 4 80% 0 0% 8 53.3%
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Price Derivatives APO(30,150) APO(20,100) (TP,SMA) SMA(TP,210) %Off_Hi(99) Since_NewHi Last_MAC Last_MAC Last_Price
SP600 (IJR) Daily -1.51 -2.39 -1.2% 97.44 -10.6% 39 (TP,50d) -4.0% 96.70
SP400 (MDY) Daily -1.97 -6.95 1.9% 447.92 -8.2% 39 (TP,50d) -2.4% 458.41
SP500EW (RSP) Daily -1.28 -2.34 1.5% 142.06 -7.1% 39 (TP,50d) -1.6% 144.62
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily -0.06 0.06 3.2% 87.38 -3.2% 39 (TP,200d) 3.3% 90.55
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 7.79 16.23 3.9% 3938.60 -2.0% 39 (TP,200d) 4.0% 4109.31
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10Yr Draw Downs (TTM<0) MaxDD AvgDD MaxDD AvgDD MaxDD AvgDD MaxDD AvgDD AvgDD
SP600 (IJR) Daily -22% -8.1% -21% -8.2% -40% -9.0% -30% -9.7% -9.8%
SP400 (MDY) Daily -18% -6.5% -17% -5.7% -38% -6.4% -27% -8.2% -7.9%
SP500EW (RSP) Daily -18% -5.2% -21% -5.7% -32% -4.9% -24% -7.8% -6.9%
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily -12% -4.6% -14% -5.6% -22% -6.1% -20% -7.3% -8.5%
SP500 (.SPx) Daily -12% -4.3% -17% -6.9% -20% -4.9% -24% -7.9% -7.5%
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10Yr CAGR (Ex. Div.) Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Buy&Hold
SP600 (IJR) Daily 5.6% 2.5% 3.9% 4.2% 6.3% 1.9% 3.5% 4.6% 8.3%
SP400 (MDY) Daily 6.1% 1.9% 5.1% 2.9% 6.7% 1.3% 4.3% 3.7% 8.1%
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 7.0% 2.1% 6.4% 2.7% 7.8% 1.3% 6.5% 2.6% 9.2%
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 6.7% 2.8% 7.0% 2.6% 9.2% 0.4% 6.0% 3.5% 9.7%
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 7.4% 2.5% 6.7% 3.2% 9.3% 0.7% 5.7% 4.1% 10.1%
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
10Yr $ROI (Ex. Div.) Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Bullish BEARish Buy&Hold
SP600 (IJR) Daily 7,217 2,843 4,651 5,092 8,337 2,058 4,081 5,729 12,111
SP400 (MDY) Daily 8,027 2,098 6,422 3,281 9,074 1,434 5,254 4,360 11,810
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 9,677 2,298 8,542 3,051 11,218 1,405 8,691 2,963 14,199
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 9,118 3,197 9,589 2,879 14,162 442 7,976 4,092 15,229
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 10,390 2,808 9,032 3,722 14,301 747 7,475 5,012 16,117
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Avg Signals (10yr) /Year %Bearish/Yr /Year %Bearish/Yr /Year %Bearish/Yr /Year %Bearish/Yr Chg(TTM)/Yr
SP600 (IJR) Daily 2.3 30% 2.9 32% 0.8 22% 2.7 28% 1.5
SP400 (MDY) Daily 1.9 25% 1.9 24% 1.0 14% 2.5 24% 2.5
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 1.7 21% 1.9 21% 1.0 14% 2.1 21% 1.5
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 1.3 21% 1.3 21% 0.8 13% 2.0 20% 1.1
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 1.6 20% 1.8 19% 0.8 12% 2.6 19% 0.9
----- - ----- ----- - ----- ----- - ----- ----- - ----- ----- - -----
Annual Time Horizon (10yr) Buy(D/Y) Sell(D/Y) Buy(D/Y) Sell(D/Y) Buy(D/Y) Sell(D/Y) Buy(D/Y) Sell(D/Y) MktD(TTM<0)
SP600 (IJR) Daily 176 76 172 80 196 56 181 71 76
SP400 (MDY) Daily 190 62 191 62 216 37 193 59 72
SP500EW (RSP) Daily 199 53 200 52 217 35 199 53 58
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily 199 53 200 52 220 32 201 51 49
SP500 (.SPx) Daily 202 50 204 48 221 31 206 46 47
Overall Avg (MktD) = 193 59 193 59 214 38 196 56 60
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