MapG
January 1, 2023, 5:44pm
1
More detail:
Market Trend Indicators (Intermediate-Term)
Price Data:
adjusted(Inc Splits, Exc Div): When a company issues a dividend its price usually drops.
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PPO’s:
Difference between two SMA’s or EMA’s of a security’s price expressed as a percentage.
IJR:
Daily PO’s(5/25, 10/50, 15/75)
MDY:
Daily PO’s(10/50, 15/75, 20/100)
RSP:
Daily PO’s(20/100, 25/125, 30/150)
ITOT:
Daily PO’s(30/150, 35/175, 40/200)
Criteria(SMA):
PO’s: SELLIF: PO(slow) & PO(inter) < 0, BuyIF: PO(inter) & PO(fast) > 0
.SPx:
Daily MACD(40,200,8) Signal Line
Criteria(SPx):
MACD SELLIF: (EMA40d-EMA200d) < 0, BuyIF: (EMA8d) > 0
Allocation:
Rev Nov-2019: ( IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20% )
SPY:
Rev Aug-2020 Weekly MACD(9,27,3) Signal Line (Tuned with 15y history)
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MAC(10m):
MAC(TP,SMA) where Typical Price(TP) is Average (high,low,close) and SMA(TP,210d)
Criteria:
Rev Aug-2020: SELLlF: Negative 2 weeks(10d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
Allocation:
Rev Nov-2019: ( IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20% )
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Other MAC:
Intermediate-Term Moving Average Crossover (MAC) Trend Indicators
Criteria:
Equal-Weighted Allocation with minimum Whipsaw (3 of 5 Pre-Set time horizons by FATP)
MAC(TP,SMA):
Typical Price (TP) and Simple Moving Average SMA(TP,XXd) Crossovers
(50d,200d):
Rev Mar-2022: SELLlF: Negative 1 week(5d), BuyIF: Positive 1 Day
(TP,210d):
Rev Aug-2020: SELLlF: Negative 2 week(10d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
(TP,50d):
Rev Aug-2020: SELLlF: Negative 2 week(10d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
Allocation:
Rev Jun-2021: (50d)=33%, (4w,9w,18w)=0%, (210d)=33%, (50d,200d)=33%, (21w,50w)=0%
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DBE:
Dying Bullish Euphoria DBE(99d,5m)
Criteria(99d):
Rev Sept-2019: Intraday High prices for 99d
Criteria(5m):
Rev Jan-2021 SELLlF: No New High prices for 5m ( High/Low Channel - HC99d uptick )
Allocation:
Rev Nov-2019 IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20%
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More detail: TMF Foolish Workshop
https://boards.fool.com/Message.aspx?mid=35013503
https://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2021-34717304.aspx?sort=whole
https://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2020-34398729.aspx?sort=threaded
https://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2019-34123771.aspx?sort=threaded
http://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2018-32943095.aspx?sort=threaded
http://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2017-32543430.aspx?sort=threaded
http://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2016-32063703.aspx?sort=threaded
http://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-2015-31564016.aspx?sort=threaded
http://boards.fool.com/market-trend-indicators-for-mi-screens-31215761.aspx?sort=threaded
GD_
2 Likes
Technology is a new trend! I personally fond of ReduX tech project. ReduX can help fight energy shortages and climate change.
MapG
March 30, 2023, 2:49pm
5
The Volatility has been higher over the last 3-5 years and review of “Market Trend Indicators” were overdue. Changes of PPO’s to new APO’s improved 10yr Draw Down and Returns.
The latest Values will be posted tommorow the last day of the month.
More detail:
Market Trend Indicators (Intermediate-Term)
Price Data:
adjusted(Inc Splits, Exc Div): When a Fund issues a dividend then it’s price usually drops.
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APO:
Rev Mar-2023 Absolute Price Oscillator - Difference between two EMA’s of a security’s price.
Criteria:
Rev Mar-2023 PO’s: SELLIF: PO(20,125) & PO(25,125) < 0, BuyIF: PO(25,125) & PO(30,125) > 0
Allocation:
Rev Nov-2019: ( IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20% )
SPY:
Rev Aug-2020 Weekly MACD(9,27,3) Signal Line (Tuned with 15y history)
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MAC(10m):
MAC(TP,SMA) where Typical Price(TP) is Average (high,low,close) and SMA(TP,210d)
Criteria:
Rev Mar-2023: SELLlF: Negative 1 week(5d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
Allocation:
Rev Nov-2019: ( IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20% )
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Other MAC:
Intermediate-Term Moving Average Crossover (MAC) Trend Indicators
Criteria:
Equal-Weighted Allocation with minimum Whipsaw (3 of 5 Pre-Set time horizons by FATP)
MAC(TP,SMA):
Typical Price (TP) and Simple Moving Average SMA(TP,XXd) Crossovers
(50d,200d):
Rev Mar-2022: SELLlF: Negative 1 week(5d), BuyIF: Positive 1 Day
(TP,200d):
Rev Mar-2023: SELLlF: Negative 1 week(5d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
(TP,50d):
Rev Aug-2020: SELLlF: Negative 2 week(10d), BuyIF: Positive 1 week(5d)
Allocation:
Rev Jun-2021: (50d)=33%, (4w,9w,18w)=0%, (210d)=33%, (50d,200d)=33%, (21w,50w)=0%
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DBE:
Dying Bullish Euphoria DBE(99d,5m)
Criteria(99d):
Rev Sept-2019: Intraday High prices for 99d
Criteria(5m):
Rev Jan-2021 SELLlF: No New High prices for 5m ( High/Low Channel - HC99d uptick )
Allocation:
Rev Nov-2019 IJR=20%, MDY=20%, RSP=20%, ITOT=20%, .SPx=20%
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GD_
1 Like
MapG
March 31, 2023, 9:04pm
6
3/30/2023 The Volatility has been higher over the last 3-5 years and review of “Market Trend Indicators” were overdue. Changes of PPO’s to new APO’s improved 10yr Draw Down and Returns.
Friday, March 31, 2023
PO’s(6m)
PO’s(6m)
MAC(10m)
MAC(10m)
DBE(99d,5m)
DBE(99d,5m)
Other_MAC
Other_MAC
Buy&Hold
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Status Summary
Status
LastD_Chg
Status
LastD_Chg
Status
LastD_Chg
Last_MAC
LastD_Chg
Last_Chg(TTM)
SP600 (IJR) Daily
BEARish
20-Mar-23
BEARish
16-Mar-23
Bullish
31-Jan-23
BEARish
21-Mar-23
06-Apr-22
SP400 (MDY) Daily
BEARish
22-Mar-23
BEARish
28-Mar-23
Bullish
26-Jan-23
BEARish
22-Mar-23
06-Mar-23
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
BEARish
17-Mar-23
BEARish
16-Mar-23
Bullish
26-Jan-23
BEARish
20-Mar-23
11-May-22
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
BEARish
22-Mar-23
BEARish
16-Mar-23
Bullish
01-Feb-23
Bullish
31-Mar-23
28-Apr-22
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
Bullish
30-Mar-23
Bullish
24-Mar-23
Bullish
01-Feb-23
Bullish
24-Mar-23
11-May-22
Cash_Alloc(Eq-Wt) =
4
80%
4
80%
0
0%
8
53.3%
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Price Derivatives
APO(30,125)
APO(20,125)
(TP,SMA)
SMA(TP,210)
%Off_Hi(99)
Since_NewHi
Last_MAC
Last_MAC
Last_Price
SP600 (IJR) Daily
-1.51
-2.39
-1.2%
97.44
-10.6%
39
(TP,50d)
-4.0%
96.70
SP400 (MDY) Daily
-1.97
-6.95
1.9%
447.92
-8.2%
39
(TP,50d)
-2.4%
458.41
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
-1.28
-2.34
1.5%
142.06
-7.1%
39
(TP,50d)
-1.6%
144.62
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
-0.06
0.06
3.2%
87.38
-3.2%
39
(TP,200d)
3.3%
90.55
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
7.79
16.23
3.9%
3938.60
-2.0%
39
(TP,200d)
4.0%
4109.31
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10Yr Draw Downs (TTM<0)
MaxDD
AvgDD
MaxDD
AvgDD
MaxDD
AvgDD
MaxDD
AvgDD
AvgDD
SP600 (IJR) Daily
-22%
-8.1%
-21%
-8.2%
-40%
-9.0%
-30%
-9.7%
-9.8%
SP400 (MDY) Daily
-18%
-6.5%
-17%
-5.7%
-38%
-6.4%
-27%
-8.2%
-7.9%
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
-18%
-5.2%
-21%
-5.7%
-32%
-4.9%
-24%
-7.8%
-6.9%
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
-12%
-4.6%
-14%
-5.6%
-22%
-6.1%
-20%
-7.3%
-8.5%
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
-12%
-4.3%
-17%
-6.9%
-20%
-4.9%
-24%
-7.9%
-7.5%
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10Yr CAGR (Ex. Div.)
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Buy&Hold
SP600 (IJR) Daily
5.6%
2.5%
3.9%
4.2%
6.3%
1.9%
3.5%
4.6%
8.3%
SP400 (MDY) Daily
6.1%
1.9%
5.1%
2.9%
6.7%
1.3%
4.3%
3.7%
8.1%
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
7.0%
2.1%
6.4%
2.7%
7.8%
1.3%
6.5%
2.6%
9.2%
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
6.7%
2.8%
7.0%
2.6%
9.2%
0.4%
6.0%
3.5%
9.7%
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
7.4%
2.5%
6.7%
3.2%
9.3%
0.7%
5.7%
4.1%
10.1%
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10Yr $ROI (Ex. Div.)
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Buy&Hold
SP600 (IJR) Daily
7,217
2,843
4,651
5,092
8,337
2,058
4,081
5,729
12,111
SP400 (MDY) Daily
8,027
2,098
6,422
3,281
9,074
1,434
5,254
4,360
11,810
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
9,677
2,298
8,542
3,051
11,218
1,405
8,691
2,963
14,199
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
9,118
3,197
9,589
2,879
14,162
442
7,976
4,092
15,229
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
10,390
2,808
9,032
3,722
14,301
747
7,475
5,012
16,117
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Avg Signals (10yr)
/Year
%Bearish/Yr
/Year
%Bearish/Yr
/Year
%Bearish/Yr
/Year
%Bearish/Yr
Chg(TTM)/Yr
SP600 (IJR) Daily
2.3
30%
2.9
32%
0.8
22%
2.7
28%
1.5
SP400 (MDY) Daily
1.9
25%
1.9
24%
1.0
14%
2.5
24%
2.5
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
1.7
21%
1.9
21%
1.0
14%
2.1
21%
1.5
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
1.3
21%
1.3
21%
0.8
13%
2.0
20%
1.1
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
1.6
20%
1.8
19%
0.8
12%
2.6
19%
0.9
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Annual Time Horizon (10yr)
Buy(D/Y)
Sell(D/Y)
Buy(D/Y)
Sell(D/Y)
Buy(D/Y)
Sell(D/Y)
Buy(D/Y)
Sell(D/Y)
MktD(TTM<0)
SP600 (IJR) Daily
176
76
172
80
196
56
181
71
76
SP400 (MDY) Daily
190
62
191
62
216
37
193
59
72
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
199
53
200
52
217
35
199
53
58
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
199
53
200
52
220
32
201
51
49
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
202
50
204
48
221
31
206
46
47
Overall Avg (MktD) =
193
59
193
59
214
38
196
56
60
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2 Likes
MapG
May 8, 2023, 9:53pm
8
again
Rev May-2023 PO’s: SELLIF: PO(24,120) & PO(30,120) < 0, BuyIF: PO(30,120) & PO(40,120) > 0
Friday, May 5, 2023
PO’s(6m)
PO’s(6m)
MAC(10m)
MAC(10m)
DBE(99d,5m)
DBE(99d,5m)
Other_MAC
Other_MAC
Buy&Hold
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Status Summary
Status
LastD_Chg
Status
LastD_Chg
Status
LastD_Chg
Last_MAC
LastD_Chg
Last_Chg(TTM)
SP600 (IJR) Daily
BEARish
21-Mar-23
BEARish
16-Mar-23
Bullish
31-Jan-23
BEARish
02-May-23
06-Apr-22
SP400 (MDY) Daily
BEARish
24-Mar-23
Bullish
04-Apr-23
Bullish
26-Jan-23
Bullish
04-Apr-23
06-Mar-23
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
BEARish
21-Mar-23
Bullish
05-Apr-23
Bullish
26-Jan-23
Bullish
05-Apr-23
11-May-22
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
Bullish
30-Mar-23
Bullish
04-Apr-23
Bullish
01-Feb-23
Bullish
06-Apr-23
28-Apr-22
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
Bullish
30-Jan-23
Bullish
24-Mar-23
Bullish
01-Feb-23
Bullish
04-Apr-23
11-May-22
Cash_Alloc(Eq-Wt) =
3
60%
1
20%
0
0%
5
33.3%
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Price Derivatives
APO(40,120)
APO(24,120)
(TP,SMA)
SMA(TP,210)
%Off_Hi(99)
Since_NewHi
Last_MAC
(TP,SMA)
Last_Price
SP600 (IJR) Daily
-2.02
-3.04
-4.3%
97.33
-12.1%
63
(50d,200d)
-1.6%
93.34
SP400 (MDY) Daily
-2.41
-4.49
-0.4%
450.49
-8.2%
64
(TP,200d)
-0.7%
449.50
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
-0.39
-0.68
0.1%
142.64
-6.3%
64
(TP,200d)
-0.1%
143.03
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
0.90
1.21
3.1%
87.87
-1.8%
64
(TP,50d)
1.6%
90.80
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
57.39
78.73
4.0%
3964.62
-0.2%
64
(TP,50d)
2.0%
4136.25
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10Yr Draw Downs (TTM<0)
MaxDD
AvgDD
MaxDD
AvgDD
MaxDD
AvgDD
MaxDD
AvgDD
AvgDD
SP600 (IJR) Daily
-22%
-8.7%
-21%
-8.3%
-40%
-9.2%
-30%
-9.9%
-9.8%
SP400 (MDY) Daily
-14%
-5.2%
-17%
-5.8%
-38%
-6.4%
-27%
-8.5%
-7.8%
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
-18%
-5.2%
-21%
-5.9%
-32%
-5.0%
-24%
-8.1%
-6.8%
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
-11%
-4.4%
-14%
-5.6%
-22%
-6.2%
-20%
-7.4%
-8.4%
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
-13%
-4.3%
-17%
-6.9%
-20%
-5.0%
-24%
-7.9%
-7.4%
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10Yr CAGR (Ex. Div.)
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Buy&Hold
SP600 (IJR) Daily
5.7%
2.2%
4.0%
3.9%
6.0%
1.9%
3.5%
4.4%
8.0%
SP400 (MDY) Daily
6.6%
1.3%
5.0%
2.8%
6.5%
1.3%
4.2%
3.6%
7.9%
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
6.8%
2.0%
6.2%
2.6%
7.5%
1.3%
6.2%
2.6%
9.0%
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
7.1%
2.3%
6.8%
2.6%
9.1%
0.4%
5.9%
3.5%
9.6%
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
7.5%
2.2%
6.4%
3.2%
9.1%
0.7%
5.6%
4.2%
9.9%
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10Yr $ROI (Ex. Div.)
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Bullish
BEARish
Buy&Hold
SP600 (IJR) Daily
7,575
2,396
4,836
4,602
7,965
2,058
4,068
5,453
11,662
SP400 (MDY) Daily
8,923
1,387
6,321
3,164
8,789
1,434
5,161
4,238
11,484
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
9,453
2,192
8,228
2,942
10,685
1,405
8,330
2,888
13,591
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
9,981
2,532
9,337
2,897
13,884
442
7,790
4,075
14,939
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
10,894
2,387
8,860
3,722
14,081
747
7,298
5,032
15,880
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Avg Signals (10yr)
/Year
%Bearish/Yr
/Year
%Bearish/Yr
/Year
%Bearish/Yr
/Year
%Bearish/Yr
Chg(TTM)/Yr
SP600 (IJR) Daily
2.3
31%
2.9
33%
0.8
22%
2.8
29%
1.5
SP400 (MDY) Daily
1.7
25%
2.0
24%
1.0
14%
2.6
24%
2.5
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
1.5
22%
2.0
21%
1.0
14%
2.1
21%
1.5
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
1.4
21%
1.4
21%
0.8
13%
2.1
20%
1.1
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
1.0
19%
1.8
19%
0.8
12%
2.6
19%
0.9
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-
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-
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Annual Time Horizon (10yr)
Buy(D/Y)
Sell(D/Y)
Buy(D/Y)
Sell(D/Y)
Buy(D/Y)
Sell(D/Y)
Buy(D/Y)
Sell(D/Y)
MktD(TTM<0)
SP600 (IJR) Daily
175
77
169
83
196
56
179
73
79
SP400 (MDY) Daily
189
63
190
62
216
37
192
60
74
SP500EW (RSP) Daily
196
56
200
52
217
35
198
54
60
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily
199
53
200
52
220
32
201
51
51
SP500 (.SPx) Daily
203
49
204
48
221
31
206
46
49
Overall Avg (MktD) =
192
60
193
59
214
38
195
57
63
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3 Likes