Mask & Vaccine Calculus

Fully-vaxxed, 64-yr-old infectious disease doctor explains how he evaluates the risk of not wearing a mask in various social settings.

Comment: How a vaxxed doctor judged his covid risk at a party…

Having made it this far without getting covid-19, I think it would be a dumb time for me to catch the virus. Case rates are falling fast enough that the risk will soon be sufficiently low for me to let down my guard. When? There’s no bright line separating safe from unsafe, but case rates of approximately 10 per 100,000 people per day and test positivity rates of less than 1 or 2 percent would make it quite unlikely that a person in line with me in the supermarket or sitting near me at a restaurant has covid. (No state has case rates quite that low, but Maryland is closest, at 12 cases per 100,000; its test-positivity rate is 2.9 percent.) When rates reach that level, I’ll begin eating indoors and will remove my mask in low-risk indoor settings. But I’ll still mask up in very crowded indoor spaces.