Hi Saul. Great Board. Thnx for all you do.
How much weight do you give to market performance over say a 3 month or 6 month period or 1 year period? I know your general plan (from following you and from the knowledge base) is to hold a stock until the story changes, and you certainly do that very well. I remember when ZS was just going sideways in the $30-$40 area for a few months, and most people were saying how over priced it was, but you just patiently sat in it for a few months. You didn’t care that it wasn’t doing much. Further on ZS, in this current 20% decline ($89 to $71), you are viewing this an opportunity to add a little bit. You still love the story, you had a little discussion with Bert on it, and you aren’t giving too much weight to the bearish downgrade last week. On the other side, I know you mentioned MDB hasn’t performed as well as you thought over the last few months so you decreased it a bit (though it is still a huge position), even though the story hasn’t changed. MDB has had about a 27% decline from its highs ($184 to $133). So, I’m just trying to get a sense if it is more of a feel for each stock, or you really do pay attention to how a stock as performed over a few month period and that might affect your decisions a little bit?
Thnx
Dave
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Hi Dave, first a correction:
You still love the story, you had a little discussion with Bert on it, and you aren’t giving too much weight to the bearish downgrade last week.
I didn’t have a little discussion with Bert. I subscribe to his newsletter and read what he wrote.
I know you mentioned MDB hasn’t performed as well as you thought over the last few months so you decreased it a bit (though it is still a huge position), even though the story hasn’t changed. MDB has had about a 27% decline from its highs ($184 to $133).
Here’s what I wrote about Mongo for August of my four month summary:
Then Mongo, I finally started to lose patience with Mongo. I had held it for 21 weeks at that point, and it was up 7% in the 21 weeks while the rest of my portfolio was hitting it out of the ballpark. I trimmed a little, just dropping my position size from 11.6% to 10.2%. I’m well aware that losing patience is not a valid reason for trimming, but I’m human too, and when I wanted to increase my Trade Desk position, that’s one of the places I looked.
I think that explains it as well as I can. Dropping my position from 11.6% to 10.2% wasn’t the end of the world. t
So, I’m just trying to get a sense if it is more of a feel for each stock, or you really do pay attention to how a stock as performed over a few month period and that might affect your decisions a little bit?
It’s more a feel for each company rather than each stock. I can’t really explain it rationally. It’s just what I feel. Also, some prefer to sell their winners to raise cash. I don’t, unless the position has gotten too large.
Saul
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Saul,
“I didn’t have a little discussion with Bert. I subscribe to his newsletter and read what he wrote.” Is this Bert Hochfeld from Ticker Target you are referring to?
-thanks
I believe Saul would tell you, yes, that Bert.
BTW, for me, at least, Bert is valued for his analysis of companies. His ideas on allocation differ in some significant ways from the main thrust of this board, as it currently stands. Which is not to say they are better or worse, just different. For example, Bert might be more inclined to think a stock overvalued, and should therefore be sold, while others on this board may still strongly advocate holding it (I think of Okta, earlier this year, and both his public and privately shared ideas on that company.) He also likes to allocate some funds to beaten down stocks, which he feels are ripe for a recovery.
Which is not to say his ideas are better or worse in that regard, (or perhaps are in a different time frame,) just different.
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