I noticed that a post I made on Medicare drug price negotiation got pulled due to “tender sensibilites”. For those with an interest in the issue, there’s good news coming out of Oregon’s 5th Congressional District – google it.
intercst
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It is currently possible to have negotiated prices. They just do not want to actually do it because it would be in court for a VERY long time.
It is currently possible to have negotiated prices. They just do not want to actually do it because it would be in court for a VERY long time.
So what? The sooner we start the litigation, the sooner it will be over.
intercst
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Price negotiation schedule was announced today. The list of 10 drugs to be negotiated is due Sept 2023 and negotiated prices Sept 2024. Looks like Medicare use of negotiated prices arrives in 2025.
Too soon to know how drug investments will be impacted. But impact seems several years away.
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Which drugs?
Medicare Drug Price Negotiations
Medicare has announced their plan. Drugs to be negotiated will be named in September and prices announced Sep 2024.
What drugs are likely to have prices negotiated and who makes them? Investors would like to know.
Generics: probably not. Their prices are already competitive and usually low.
Leading edge branded drugs. Probably not. They have no incentive to negotiate.
Most likely block buster drugs where competitors have offered a competitive product to treat the same condition.
Google found a list of top selling drugs: https://www.fiercepharma.com/special-reports/top-20-drugs-worldwide-sales-2021
From that I come up with the following list (from notes below). No telling which of these are most likely to be used by Medicare patients. And you wonder what impact negotiated prices will have on company earnings. Will competitors match prices? Or ignore them?
You can name some block buster categories that might qualify.
Statins. There seem to be lots of them. Many generics.
Erectile dysfunction drugs. Viagra plus newer ones.
Antibiotics
Vaccines (make the Fierecepharma list)
You wonder if negotiating strategies can succeed. For a discount price would Medicare move the drug to a preferred lower copay category. Or could company negotiate a bundle deal? Multiple discounts for multiple drugs.
Will be interesting to see how this all works out.
Most likely to be negotiated
Darzalex Johnson & Johnson
Eliquis Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer.
Humira AbbVie
Imbruvica AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson.
Keytruda Merck
Opdivo Bristol Myers Squibb, Ono Pharmaceutical.
Revlimid Bristol Myers Squibb
Stelara Johnson & Johnson
Xarelto Bayer, Johnson & Johnson
Top selling drugs 2021
*–indicates multidrugs listed to treat illness
Diseases
Asthma
Dupixent. Sanofi, Regeneron
*Atrial Fibrillation
Eliquis Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer.
Xarelto Bayer, Johnson & Johnson
Breast Cancer
Ibrace Pfizer
COPD
Dupixent. Sanofi, Regeneron
*Covid
Comirnaty Pfizer, BioNTec
Spikevax Moderna
Regen-COV/Ronapreve. Regeneron, Roche
Veklury Gilead Sciences
*Crohn’s Disease
Humira AbbVie
Stelara Johnson & Johnson
Cystic fibrosis
Trikafta/Kaftrio Vertex
*Deep vein thrombosis
Eliquis Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer.
Xarelto Bayer, Johnson & Johnson
Diabetes, type 2
Trulicity EliLilly.
Diabetic retinopathy
Eylea Regeneron.
Gastric cancer
Keytruda Merck
HIV
Biktarvy Gilead Sciences
Human papillomavirus
Gardasil 9 Merck
Leukemia
Imbruvica AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson.
*Lung Cancer
Keytruda Merck
Opdivo Bristol Myers Squibb, Ono Pharmaceutical.
*Lymphoma, Hodgkins
Keytruda Merck
Revlimid Bristol Myers Squibb
Imbruvica AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson.
Macular degeneration
Eylea Regeneron.
*Melanoma
Keytruda Merck
Opdivo Bristol Myers Squibb, Ono Pharmaceutical.
Mesothelioma
Opdivo Bristol Myers Squibb, Ono Pharmaceutical.
*Multiple myeloma
Revlimid Bristol Myers Squibb
Darzalex Johnson & Johnson
*Plaque psoriasis
Humira AbbVie
Stelara Johnson & Johnson
*Pulmonary embolism
Eliquis Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer.
Xarelto Bayer, Johnson & Johnson
Rheumatoid arthritis
Humira AbbVie
Ulcerative Colitis
Stelara Johnson & Johnson
Comirnaty Pfizer, BioNTec, Covid-19
Humira AbbVie Rheumatoid arthritis, Chrohn’s disease, plaque psoriasis. Biosimilars coming from europe.
Spikevax Moderna Covid-19
Keytruda Merck melanoma, lung cancer, Hodgkin, gastric cancer. Best selling cancer drug. Bristol Myers Squibb Revlimid second ranking cancer drug. Used with Herceptin from Roche for gastric cancer. With Lenvima from Eisai for kidney cancer. Breast cancer. Soon bladder cancer.
Eliquis Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer. Atrial fibrillation, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism. Gaining market share from warfarin. Johnson & Johnson has second best warfarin replacement.
Revlimid Bristol Myers Squibb Multiple myeloma, lymphoma Sandoz has generic coming. German generic Stada Arzneimittel has copycat coming. Teva launched generic. Five more generics coming. Acquired with Celgene in 2019.
Imbruvica AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson. Lymphoma, leukemia Acquired with Pharmacyclics in 2015. Others from AbbVie include Rinvoq and Skyrizi to replace competition from biosimilars to Humira. Patent infringement delayed Imbruvica generics. Brukinsa from BeiGene competition in leukemia. Competitors include Calquence from AstraZeneca.
Stelara Johnson & Johnson. Plaque psoriasis, Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis. J&Js largest product. 10% of reveunes. Patent expires Sep 2023. Amgen has biosimilar on the way. Trial showed Humira better in Crohn’s disease.
Eylea Regeneron. Macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, macular edema. Beovu from Novartis possible competitor bu had bad side effects. Vabysmo from Roche likely to be strong competitor.
Biktarvy Gilead Sciences HIV. Beating GlaxoSmithKline products. Truvada and Atripla for HIV lost market share after losing exclusivity.
Opdivo Bristol Myers Squibb, Ono Pharmaceutical. Melanoma. Lung cancer. Mesolthelioma, renal cell carcinoma, colorectal cancer, esophageal cancer, gastric cancer, Possible Covid interaction.
Xarelto Bayer, Johnson & Johnson. Atrial fibrillation, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, coronary artery disease. Competitive pressures from China. Generics could be cominb but patent goes to 2039. Many lawsuits.
Regen-COV/Ronapreve. Regeneron, Roche. Covid-19. Use restricted to omicron spread.
Trulicity EliLilly. Type 2 diabetes. Mounjaro newly approved. FDA thinks Trulicity add misleading.
Darzalex Johnson & Johnson. Multiple myeloma. J&J’s second largest product. Competitive in trials: Sarclisa from Sanofi, Revlimid from BMS, Velcade from Takeda, and dexamethasone. Due 2n half 2022. Sanofi & Blackstone working on subcutaneous Sarclisa. Revlimid patents expiring. Cheap copycats?
Trikafta/Kaftrio Vertex cystic fibrosis. Top seller.
Gardasil 9. Merck. Human papillomavirus. Strong global demand. Supply doubled 2017 to 2020. Risk of HPV infection reduced by 90%.
Dupixent. Sanofi, Regeneron. Asthma. COPD.
Veklury Gilead Sciences Covid 19.
Ibrance Pfizer. Breast cancer. Losing share to Verzenio from Lilly and Kisqali from Novartis.
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