Mekong22 Apr 2023 portfolio update

My portfolio continues to be driven by my large positions in The Trade Desk and MongoDB. At least so far this year, that has gone relatively well. However, neither of these companies have released Q1 earnings yet, so things could change over the coming weeks once they report.

So I’ll keep it short this month, until we get more from TTD and MDB

Here is where I am as of the end of April

Year to date performance:

+11.3% YTD Jan
+16.2% YTD Feb
+23.5% YTD Mar
+29.1% YTD Apr

and my allocations at 4/30/23

45.7%  The Trade Desk  TTD
41.9%  MongoDB  MDB 
 3.9%  Cloudflare  NET
 3.7%  Datadog  DDOG 
 3.5%  Snowflake  SNOW 
 1.3%  Magnite  MGNI

After not making any trades at all in March, I made quite a few this month, although it didn’t change my overall portfolio allocation a whole lot. I had a major purchase and funded it largely by selling some of my oversized TTD and MDB, as well as some of my DDOG, SNOW, and MGNI. Although I sold a lot more of the first two, I actually sold a higher percentage of the others, which, along with increased stock prices in April, led to Trade Desk and MongoDB becoming an even bigger percentage of my total portfolio.

Unfortunately, my highest confidence smaller holding was Cloudflare, which I didn’t liquidate at all for the purchase, (in retrospect I wish I had) so NET became larger than it has been in the past (albeit still relatively small compared to the big ones) and it took a bit of a hit at the end of April, partially offsetting the gains in the other stocks.

But I can’t complain and definitely feel fortunate to be up close to 30% so far this year, four months in.

I am finally getting a chance to look at some other companies and update my research and might be gettig closer to starting to reallocate a bit more in coming months.

In the meantime, May will be an active month for releases from most of my holdings. Here’s a look at the trend with the most recent guides for Q1 penciled in:

The Trade Desk (TTD)

Looking at the YoY growth rates by quarter over the last few years:

       Q1    Q2   Q3   Q4
2020   33%  -13%  32%  48%
2021   37%  101%  39%  24%
2022   43%   35%  31%  24%
2023   15%(q1 guide)

And sequential growth (note that Q1 is typically going to be negative sequential growth given the seasonally strong holiday quarter in Q4)

       Q1    Q2   Q3   Q4
2020  -26%  -13%  55%  48%
2021  -31%   27%   8%  31%
2022  -20%   20%   5%  24%
2023  -26%(q1 guide)

MongoDB (MDB)

MDB YoY growth

       Q1    Q2   Q3   Q4
2020   46%   39%  38%  38%
2021   39%   44%  50%  56%
2022   57%   53%  47%  36%
2023   22%(q1 guide)

And MDB sequential growth

      Q1   Q2  Q3   Q4
2020  6%   6%   9%  13%
2021  6%   9%  14%  17%
2022  7%   6%  10%   8%
2023 -4%(q1 guide)

Datadog (DDOG)

DDOG YoY growth

      Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4
2020  87%  68%  61%  56%
2021  51%  67%  75%  84%
2022  83%  74%  61%  44%
2023  29%(q1 guide)

And DDOG sequential growth

       Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4
2020   15%   7%  10%  15%
2021   12%  18%  16%  21%
2022   11%  12%   7%   8%
2023    0%(q1 guide)

Snowflake (SNOW)

SNOW YoY growth

       Q1    Q2    Q3    Q4
2020  149%  121%  119%  117%
2021  110%  104%  110%  101%
2022   85%   83%   67%   53%
2023   45%(q1 product rev guide)

Snowflake only provides guidance for product revenue, but product revenue accounts for most of their total revenue, so I think it’s safe to pencil their +45% product revenue guide for Q1 into the above chart as an estimate of total revenue growth.

And SNOW sequential growth

      Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4
2020  24%  22%  20%  19%
2021  20%  19%  23%  15%
2022  10%  18%  12%   6%
2023   4%(q1 est. guide)

This earnings season has been so unpredictable so far. Cloudflare was probably the company I was most confident would have at least a so-so release, and that didn’t pan out so well.

Maybe the best thing to do is to not hold any company through their earnings release right now? Perhaps, but that’s not how I typically operate so I probably won’t change much until after we hear from my bigger holdings.

Let’s hope most of the worst news is behind us and we start to see markets overall move more positively. It has to turn at some point and I don’t plan to be out when it does.

Thanks as always for the great discussion this month, despite a challenging environment