My portfolio continues to be driven by my large positions in The Trade Desk and MongoDB. At least so far this year, that has gone relatively well. However, neither of these companies have released Q1 earnings yet, so things could change over the coming weeks once they report.
So I’ll keep it short this month, until we get more from TTD and MDB
Here is where I am as of the end of April
Year to date performance:
+11.3% YTD Jan
+16.2% YTD Feb
+23.5% YTD Mar
+29.1% YTD Apr
and my allocations at 4/30/23
45.7% The Trade Desk TTD
41.9% MongoDB MDB
3.9% Cloudflare NET
3.7% Datadog DDOG
3.5% Snowflake SNOW
1.3% Magnite MGNI
After not making any trades at all in March, I made quite a few this month, although it didn’t change my overall portfolio allocation a whole lot. I had a major purchase and funded it largely by selling some of my oversized TTD and MDB, as well as some of my DDOG, SNOW, and MGNI. Although I sold a lot more of the first two, I actually sold a higher percentage of the others, which, along with increased stock prices in April, led to Trade Desk and MongoDB becoming an even bigger percentage of my total portfolio.
Unfortunately, my highest confidence smaller holding was Cloudflare, which I didn’t liquidate at all for the purchase, (in retrospect I wish I had) so NET became larger than it has been in the past (albeit still relatively small compared to the big ones) and it took a bit of a hit at the end of April, partially offsetting the gains in the other stocks.
But I can’t complain and definitely feel fortunate to be up close to 30% so far this year, four months in.
I am finally getting a chance to look at some other companies and update my research and might be gettig closer to starting to reallocate a bit more in coming months.
In the meantime, May will be an active month for releases from most of my holdings. Here’s a look at the trend with the most recent guides for Q1 penciled in:
The Trade Desk (TTD)
Looking at the YoY growth rates by quarter over the last few years:
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 33% -13% 32% 48%
2021 37% 101% 39% 24%
2022 43% 35% 31% 24%
2023 15%(q1 guide)
And sequential growth (note that Q1 is typically going to be negative sequential growth given the seasonally strong holiday quarter in Q4)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 -26% -13% 55% 48%
2021 -31% 27% 8% 31%
2022 -20% 20% 5% 24%
2023 -26%(q1 guide)
MongoDB (MDB)
MDB YoY growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 46% 39% 38% 38%
2021 39% 44% 50% 56%
2022 57% 53% 47% 36%
2023 22%(q1 guide)
And MDB sequential growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 6% 6% 9% 13%
2021 6% 9% 14% 17%
2022 7% 6% 10% 8%
2023 -4%(q1 guide)
Datadog (DDOG)
DDOG YoY growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 87% 68% 61% 56%
2021 51% 67% 75% 84%
2022 83% 74% 61% 44%
2023 29%(q1 guide)
And DDOG sequential growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 15% 7% 10% 15%
2021 12% 18% 16% 21%
2022 11% 12% 7% 8%
2023 0%(q1 guide)
Snowflake (SNOW)
SNOW YoY growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 149% 121% 119% 117%
2021 110% 104% 110% 101%
2022 85% 83% 67% 53%
2023 45%(q1 product rev guide)
Snowflake only provides guidance for product revenue, but product revenue accounts for most of their total revenue, so I think it’s safe to pencil their +45% product revenue guide for Q1 into the above chart as an estimate of total revenue growth.
And SNOW sequential growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 24% 22% 20% 19%
2021 20% 19% 23% 15%
2022 10% 18% 12% 6%
2023 4%(q1 est. guide)
This earnings season has been so unpredictable so far. Cloudflare was probably the company I was most confident would have at least a so-so release, and that didn’t pan out so well.
Maybe the best thing to do is to not hold any company through their earnings release right now? Perhaps, but that’s not how I typically operate so I probably won’t change much until after we hear from my bigger holdings.
Let’s hope most of the worst news is behind us and we start to see markets overall move more positively. It has to turn at some point and I don’t plan to be out when it does.
Thanks as always for the great discussion this month, despite a challenging environment
-mekong