It feels great to turn the page on my portfolio to the new year.
After a bumpy first few days of the year, I’m already in double digit positive territory (compared to a negative -29% in January 2022 a year ago)
Year to Date performance:
+11.3% YTD Jan
and allocation at January 31st:
MDB 38.6%
TTD 37.7%
DDOG 8.0%
SNOW 6.9%
MGNI 5.8%
NET 3.0%
In early January, I sold the last of my Crowdstrike shares and put the proceeds mostly into DDOG and SNOW, with just a little bit into my already large TTD position.
Later in the month, I was preparing for a large purchase and had to sell a few things, selling down some of my MongoDB and Snowflake shares.
The Companies:
MongoDB (MDB) - Earnings Date…early March
MDB YoY growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 46% 39% 38% 38%
2021 39% 44% 50% 56%
2022 57% 53% 47% 26%(q4 guide)
And MDB sequential growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 6% 6% 9% 13%
2021 6% 9% 14% 17%
2022 7% 6% 10% 1%(q4 guide)
Mongo is a January year end, so they won’t report for a while, in early March
The Trade Desk (TTD) - Earnings Date…February 15th
Looking at the YoY growth rates by quarter over the last few years:
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 33% -13% 32% 48%
2021 37% 101% 39% 24%
2022 43% 35% 31% 24%(q4 guide)
And sequential growth (note that Q1 is typically going to be negative sequential growth given the seasonally strong holiday quarter in Q4)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 -26% -13% 55% 48%
2021 -31% 27% 8% 31%
2022 -20% 20% 5% 24%(q4 guide)
Datadog (DDOG) - Earnings date…February 16th
DDOG YoY growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 87% 68% 61% 56%
2021 51% 67% 75% 84%
2022 83% 74% 61% 38%(q4 guide)
And DDOG sequential growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 15% 7% 10% 15%
2021 12% 18% 16% 21%
2022 11% 12% 7% 3%(q4 guide)
Snowflake (SNOW) - Earnings date…March 1st
SNOW YoY growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 149% 121% 119% 117%
2021 110% 104% 110% 101%
2022 85% 83% 67% 50%(q4 product rev guide)
Snowflake only provided guidance for product revenue, but product revenue accounts for 94% of total revenue, and both product revenue and total revenue grew at +67% last quarter so I think it’s safe to pencil their +50% product revenue guide for Q4 into the above chart as an estimate of total revenue growth.
And SNOW sequential growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 24% 22% 20% 19%
2021 20% 19% 23% 15%
2022 10% 18% 12% 3%(q4 est. guide)
Cloudflare (NET) - Earnings date…February 9th
NET YoY growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 48% 48% 54% 50%
2021 51% 53% 51% 54%
2022 54% 54% 47% 42%(q4 guide)
And NET sequential growth
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2020 9% 9% 14% 10%
2021 10% 10% 13% 12%
2022 10% 11% 8% 8%(q4 guide)
While none of the companies I own have released earnings yet, it has been exciting following the big tech companies’ reports this week. It’s going to be fun seeing what we hear from our companies over the next few weeks, and as important as the Q4 results, will be the initial 2023 guidance.
I always say this is my favorite time of year, as an investor because, after the longer than normal lag between earnings from Q3 to Q4 (companies get longer to prepare year end results so Q4 comes out later), there is a very quick turnaround from Q4 to Q1, as they go back to the normal short reporting timeframe, so there are practically nonstop earnings from now through May.
Good luck to all. I look forward to the great coverage and discussions here as earnings season rolls along!
-mekong