China and Canada have already announced plans to retaliate against the newly imposed tariffs; both have said they will tariff agricultural products (which will hit Midwest farmers hardest) along with a slew of other things. Mexico was the question mark, but now they too have announced that there will be retaliatory tariffs coming soon.
Meanwhile the DOW is only off 650 a half hour into today’s trading session. I just freed up a bunch of cash, so I’ll be watching for some specific issues - but it’s hard to pull the trigger when I think the market may have a lot farther to fall. (We’re almost in correction territory on the Naz at the moment, but that’s a “just barely” and I anticipate a lot more than that.
Trigger finger: itchy.
Patience: not a lot.
Fear: rising.
Wendy’s perennial prediction of a recession looks like it may happen now. We’ve been due for a so-called correction for a while now and and with these tariff policies enacted, a lot more than just a correction is possible or even likely.
These big, beautiful tariffs may be the straw (or bales of hay) that breaks the puny camel’s back.
Oh, and we’ve cut completely the flow of arms and funds to Ukraine. Fit of pique, don’cha know.
Normally that would be taken in stride, but it can’t be good for arms makers who were feeding the back end of the conveyor belt of bullets and other stuff to be shipped abroad, adding to the day…
…which will be an interesting day, given that there’s a Presidential speech to Congress tonight, and he puts so much value on “the stock market” and so little on “alliances”.
Well, here’s hoping the rout continues. Sorry if it hurts, but as the intercst man says: “‘til it hurts.’”
How can anyone invest intelligently when the whole world is subject to the whims of a petulant four year old. “We” might see a tariff ‘deal’ announced this afternoon or tomorrow or next year. My six year old grandson is here because he has a teacher workday while his parents are at work. Maybe a game of putt putt will aid me in my thinking.
I guess Mexico will have too look at retaliating against Honda/Japan.
As far as avocado and limes, know your source. It is another way for the drug cartels to launder money. I have a lime tree that produces more than I need. IIRC, TX and FLA can increase avocado production in they think it profitable enough.
Canada, read enough articles that think the Canadian economy could go into a recession over the tariff wars. If so, the looney drops in value, the tariff will result in a wash.
At the personal level, the gross majority of stuff that will be effected that I buy, I buy only once every 5-10 years. So not too worried.
I have caught them before. I got Facebook at 17 as it was cratering after its IPO. I got Dollar Store (thanks to Mungo’s recommendation) about 3-4 years ago. (I’m looking at it again, it has fallen so much.) There are others, and yes, there is often a reason a stock is falling, but likewise there’s often not, or it’s something that’s easily addressable and gets fixed.
Happens all the time. If nobody did, all those stocks that have “come back” would have continued to zero, and mostly that doesn’t happen.
I’m making moves in the IRA (which is static money, not being added to, so dollar cost averaging is not an option). I am de-risking. I have now what amounts to a balanced fund. 40% is in cash, Treasuries, bonds. The rest in equities, BUT
Limited exposure to tech (no QQQ for example, and a good chunk in SPXT)
Exposure to Europe (VGK, VXUS)
Domestic equity exposure in less volatile names (VFMV, QUAL)
That depends. How much more do you need and how easily could you replace what you need if you lose too much? We have backed away from the MORE, MORE, MORE game of investing and set up a secure cushion. DH did just take on another highly paid consulting project, less than 9 months after he agreed never again, and I am keeping my mouth shut on that because the way things are it may not be a bad ace up our sleeves, if we need money to put back in the market down the road.
William Blake commented brilliantly and prophetically on this subject:
I. Man’s perceptions are not bounded
by organs of perception;
he perceives more than sense
(tho’ ever so acute) can discover.
II. Reason, or the ratio of all we have already known,
is not the same that it shall be when we know more.
III. [missing]
IV. The bounded is loathed by its possessor.
The same dull round even of a universe would soon become a mill with complicated wheels.
V. If the many become the same as the few
when possess’d, More! More! is the cry of a mistaken soul.
Less than All cannot satisfy Man.
VI. If any could desire what he is incapable of possessing, despair must be his eternal lot.
VII. The desire of Man being Infinite, the possession is Infinite & himself Infinite.
Application. He who sees the Infinite in all things
sees God. He who sees the Ratio only sees himself only.
Therefore God becomes as we are, that we may be as he is.
We are pretty low maintenance people, easily content with the things we have and happily living well below our means. I often think that the ability to reach and maintain a state of contentment really is key in financial independence.
China has been clear about its targets. Mostly farm produce including soybeans and pork but also including corn, beef, poultry, and most food categories. Will be hard on US farmers and good for producers in South America.
I have not seen details of what Mexico and Canada plan to do. Yes, we expect counter moves.
Hi Goofy! It’s been a while. Just wanted to remind you of the time you sold out your entire portfolio c 2016 (because of Clinton’s loss) and the market proceeded to go straight up from there. How much did you leave on the table there, before you got back in – how much higher would your net worth be if you had just stayed fully invested?
I don’t mean to say that it’s a fool’s errand to catch falling knives, only that your successes must be weighed against the failures (including opportunity cost, and forgone gains from not being fully invested). So to only point out the successes may give other people a false sense that it’s easy to do, or you are especially good at it. To the extent that anyone is reading your posts with an eye for following in your footsteps, this is critical information IMO.
No doubt. (It wasn’t “the entire portfolio, I have some Berkshire I’ve had since the 90’s and a few other things, but yes, I got out and left a lot on the table. OTOH, I also got out in 1999 and again in 2008, so batting .666 is good enough for me.)
I have been pretty lucky in the market, and have also had some dismal failures. I have detailed them across the years, a lot of that i in the old Fool which is now inaccessible. I lost on @home and Lucent, for instance. Lost everything, but it was only a $25k investment each. (They both expanded to six figures each, so I have to ask: how much did I lose? $250k? Or $50k?) [My bites are much larger these days, that was then, this is now.]
On the other other hand, getting Facebook at $17 when it IPOed at $38 a few weeks prior and went straight down, I made the $250k back and more before getting out. (Left a lot there too, but oh well.) I’m probably one of the few people who has lost money on Apple and Google, though the amounts are trivial. I made a fortune on AOL and Cisco, and the amounts are not.
I’ve never encouraged anyone to “copy me” because I have no system, I just do what I do when I feel like doing it. Whole years go by without a single move, and then suddenly I’m interested again and do a bunch of stuff.
The 1999 exit was precipitated by my feeling the market was “toppy” (I used that word a few times in that period) and that Mrs. Goofy and I were quitting and going across the country in an RV and would be out of touch for long stretches. I exited in 2008 just before things fell apart; my wife thought I was a genius. I did the same in 2016 and struck out, bigly,. Oh well.
I do believe you can “market time” and rail when people say “it’s impossible”. It’s hard, not impossible, and it’s not perfect. (What is?) We are well over half in cash at the moment, and if the market falls I’ll be back in, meanwhile I have laddered CDs paying between 4.something% and 5.something%.
I just shorted Tesla a couple weeks ago. Don’t do it because I did it, do it if you think the company isn’t going to live up to the hype in any reasonable time frame, if you think they do not have “a lock” on FSD, AI, charging infrastructure, and the rest of the “story” that’s been fabricated. Do it if you think their core business is going to fall because of the antics of the CEO and/or competition from others.
You see? Not advocating anything. Just passing along thoughts, like anybody else hereabouts. I’m not writing a book. I don’t need to be famous. Just a guy on a couch, passing the time.
