Who is right? Mish or what is being reported in the news.
- No decline in employment due to recession
- The BLS employment levels as of December 2022 are accurate
- The BLS CNIP projections are accurate
- The percentage of people working will be relatively constant
Based on those assumptions, I project a mere rise in total employment for the year of about 300,000.
Looking further ahead the total employment gain from 2022 to 2030 is a mere 4.1 million in 8 years.
Participation rates have generally been declining except for age group 60-64 and 65+ (the latter declining since 2019).
- The number of people age 65+ is rising rapidly
- The number of people age 55-64 is in decline
Finally, by 2030, the CBO projects the 16+ population will grow by 14 million while I project employment based off demographic trends will only rise by 4.1 million.
Importantly, of the 14 million population increase, 13 million of it will be in age group 65+.
Think about that for a second including strains on Medicare and Social Security.
In addition the average number of hours worked is declining.
*Demographics explain the alleged “noise” in falling full time employment while job growth allegedly growing by leaps and bounds. *
Job growth, if real (which I doubt), consists of people taking second part time jobs to make ends meet.