Mish-What Job Growth? US Demographics Impact on US Job Growth

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Who is right? Mish or what is being reported in the news.

- No decline in employment due to recession
- The BLS employment levels as of December 2022 are accurate
- The BLS CNIP projections are accurate
- The percentage of people working will be relatively constant

Based on those assumptions, I project a mere rise in total employment for the year of about 300,000.

Looking further ahead the total employment gain from 2022 to 2030 is a mere 4.1 million in 8 years.
Participation rates have generally been declining except for age group 60-64 and 65+ (the latter declining since 2019).

- The number of people age 65+ is rising rapidly
- The number of people age 55-64 is in decline

Finally, by 2030, the CBO projects the 16+ population will grow by 14 million while I project employment based off demographic trends will only rise by 4.1 million.

Importantly, of the 14 million population increase, 13 million of it will be in age group 65+.

Think about that for a second including strains on Medicare and Social Security.

In addition the average number of hours worked is declining.

*Demographics explain the alleged “noise” in falling full time employment while job growth allegedly growing by leaps and bounds. *

Job growth, if real (which I doubt), consists of people taking second part time jobs to make ends meet.

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I think Mish does not know. It does not matter that he forecasted it based on the current proportions. If the economy gets wealthier it could be more people employed or the employment rate could rise.

Neither Mish or the CBO are able to see what happens to the US industrial base at this time.

I make certain claims of the US industrial base expanding. And it will. But at what rate?

When I point out an industrial policy turns a larger debt percentage to GDP into a smaller percentage that is true. I do not time it out though.

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