On the surface and in the near term it seems Mongo has every thing to loose. But on the longer term it may strangely actually help Mongo.
Let me explain, take the example of Oracle. Oracle’s revenue stream comes not just from selling it’s core database products but apps built on top of it. These apps are built by both Oracle and others.
In Mongo’s case example current example of apps would be Compass and Charts. I am sure there is a very long product map here possible. Over time I see that as the optionality in Mongo’s business
Amazon understands it is very hard to disrupt an entrenched database. A part of the problem is the ecosystem of tools that work with it. Typically the apps access the core products through the API.So they specifically point out that all tools that work with Mongo 3.6 with their DocumentDB. So I expect even Mongo’s apps should work with DocumentDB !
The giant portion of database market is still SQL with noSQL rapidly growing in significance. Amazon’s move has validated that Mongo is the clear leader in noSQL. Besides it may help spur further adoption of noSQL paradigm. That Mongo will lose some customers is a given. The market is big enough for multiple winners. We just need Mongo 200 million revenue to 1 to 2 billion. Even with Amazon’s move I believe Mongo will be bigger than 2 billion down the road - databases are simply everywhere. The market is just too big.
So in summary:
- Amazon’s move may help accelerate shift to noSQL benefiting Mongo.
- Even if Amazon Document DB is successful, Mongo can focus on monetizing it’s apps both on their core product and Amazon’s core product. Just as Microsoft has found it worthwhile to port office to other iOS and elsewhere.