More AMBA earnings thoughts

I’ve had a little more time to digest the results.

The guidance was basically 81 cents. They hit 88 cents, but some of the extra was essentially “pulled forward” from Q3 because GoPro and Xiaomi had product launches one quarter sooner than normal.

So Q2 and Q3 basically looked like this:

Q2=88 cents; Q3=89 cents (guided which I think happens to be in line with previous analyst estimates)

instead of like this:

Q2=81 cents; Q3=97 cents

Management said that their forecasts for the business are unchanged and that their end user markets are all growing fast (except sports cameras which will be down slightly (I think they said this) yoy.

So I have to question this disappointment and have to wonder what would have happened if AMBA had reported 82 cents (slight beat) and guided 96 cents for next quarter. It would have been basically the same thing but the perception of a slight beat and a guidance 7 cents above analyst predictions might have move the stock in the other direction. Who know. Just some thoughts.



I thought I heard that “wearables” were 60% of their business (e.g. GoPro), so if that is slowing, then most of their business is slowing. You would think all the police cams would make up for other wearable declines, but maybe there is more competition or less growth than I expect in that area.

There is a reason GoPro has been tanking, and it is not all because it was over priced. If everyone sees slowing growth there, then it must be here also.