Don’t expect rockets here, just some boring companies that might turnaround in 2026. Here’s a brief list that I’ll add color to later.
dexcom. Expect to continue to penetrate into non insulin dependent diabetics and prediabetics. Cheap valuation and prints cash. This is one where the bio hacker trend of incessant and unnecessary self monitoring might actually benefit an investor.
lantheus. Also dirt cheap and printing cash with low risk catalysts to spark future growth. Those upcoming radiodiagnostics aren’t going to be blockbusters, but should resume 10% plus growth for a few years. Tbh, I’m not sure who wins the Alzheimer’s sweepstakes- roches blood test or lnth with imaging. Though roche probably wins outpatient market and lnth wins r&d dollars.
Exact sciences for the arbitrage. Roughly a 6-7% annualized gain right now. Buying in our emergency fund that is mostly CDs this week.
been pounding the table on orthopediatrics for years. This might finally be the year. Also cheap and looks to turn a profit this year.
For slightly riskier plays that aren’t the around stories, there’s united therapeutics and transmedics.
The market cap is 434m with revenue of 234 mill with multiple growth drivers and multiple addressable markets over 500m-1b. Still maintain this is wildly undervalued and going to produce growth like Lemaitre or irmd in the next 10 years.
You’re not wrong, but you’re also using AI in lieu of doing due diligence causing you to miss the thesis. Side note- huge plus side of doing the dirty work- you can catch what the quants + AI wonks miss.
They’ve been losing money while consolidating the industry. There isn’t competition, pediatric trauma is growing and usually insured
I’m not using AI. I was quoting from Fin Viz who requotes from published reports. KIDS lost money. Companies that persistently lose money are risks I avoid, as does anyone who does proper due diligence. If/when/ever KIDS turns a profit, then will be the time to start buying.
Yeah, the old hockey proverb comes to mind. “Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it is right now.” But that “where” is just a guess right now and dead money if ventured. Not my style. If “the market” doesn’t confirm that my entry was correct within a day or two, I cut my loss and move on.
Some might call that “trading”. I call it not wasting time and capital that’s put to better use elsewhere among the infinite possibilities there are. Thus, sometimes I’m holding for days or minutes, sometimes for months or decades. It all depends on whether the investment thesis proves itself or not.
“To each their own, but if that’s you’re [sic] style, why are you on this website?”
Oh, and now we’re supposed to be following some sort of hidden code of conduct if we want to comment on a post? Get real. Anyone can comment on any post, and disagree with its claims. What matters is whether the claims and counter-claims have merit.
Some of your picks are interesting and have decent fundamentals and promising prospects (though you’re late to the trade on most of them). Some don’t have good prospects, such as KIDS.
And, Yes. I buy a lot of biotechs, because their moves tend to be quick. That’s why the title of your post attracted my attention.
Stop the double talk. If those who aren’t committed exclusively to a Buy-and-Hold trading scheme aren’t permitted to post on this forum, then that restriction needs to be made explicit. But nowhere did I see that warning sign.
Not to get to personal, but what do you mean by "I’ve beat [sic] the market? Tell me, if you would, exactly which market is that? The currency market? The futures market? The SINEX? the DAX? Which benchmarks any investor chooses are a personal matter, not a competitive combat with others that has any relevance.
Yes, you are/were late --or even very late-- to the trade. That’s TMF style. Wait until the breakout has been confined by multiple public sources and then chase after prices in the hopes that price momentum will continue, just the opposite of what a value investor does.
No doubt you’ve seen this chart before. From hanging out under various handles at TMF since its AOL days and from reading Tom and Dave’s books, I know that TMF typically makes its recommendations in the mania phase of the bubble, and this is something anyone can discover for themselves by charting TMF’s recommendations. Late to the trade nearly every time, and held onto the trade far too long, letting profits erode.
I totally agree on the need for civility. However, it was fuma who lashed out in anger, not me. And it was his grammatical mistake that I pointed out. (re-quoted below)He attempted to use a pluperfect tense, and failed.
Also, if you’re truly concerned to promote civility, why did you stir the post with your post instead of letting the matter die the death it deserves?
No, I don’t want wrangling, either. It serves no purpose. So, if both you and fuma will apologize for your remarks or have them deleted, I’ll do the same.
I still remember fuma102. Between 2017 and 2021, he was wrong about many biotech/medtech stocks and made poor assessments, e.g., ABMD, SWAV… the list is long and can certainly be traced back in his history. After that, it was quiet around him for years. I think he lost a lot of money or wanted to lay low for a while.
It was mostly working in healthcare through COVID kept me occupied…. then tbh it was fighting with duma and the politics over on NPI, and when the boards changed over they’ve more or less died off.
I was wrong about bluebird, butterfly, and 10x genomics. Though never really took a big position in butterfly just discussing their product. Abiomed was dead money for 5 years then got bought out; it was under 10% annualized returns prior to that. I still maintain impellas are fairly worthless and most of my discussions are usually looking at the science behind the products…
Shockwave I thought was a good investment, so not sure what you mean there. Blueprint, tesaro, and loxo were all profitable. Also, biotech took a massive dump circa 2021/22. Yep, lost some money just like the rest of us did in 2022, but aside from that the last decade has been kind to us.
Anyway. I own UTHR, TMDX, LNTH, KIDS and dexcom if you want to know what to run away from. Have any hot stock tips we could chat about?
My 1. Rule: don’t buy biotech stocks (before turn cash flow positive!). Holding just ARDX in this space because of two approved drugs, under valuation and cash flow positive) and TMDX.
