$RADX - An actually intriguing biotech smallcap

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
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Super tiny ( less than $50m market cap) and early stages (everything P1). And theyre trying to get by with tiny trials since they dont have the cash.

BUT. radiopharma is kind of hot, and they have really intriguing targets - HER2, PDL1, and pancreatic CA. and best I can tell post night shift, lantheus has a 12% stake in the company, so I feel like they would be readily taken out with any positive data.

alternatively, you can ride the GRAIL wave or run arbitrage with MERUS for an ~15% annualized return.

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Hey Fuma!

Always appreciate new ideas. Can you please expand a bit on the above statement, when you have time? Thx!

Dreamer

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And the quick research, with AI help, that i have done looks good so far.

in for a toe dip.

Key 2026 Milestones fully funded:

• RAD101 Phase 2b topline (H1 2026)

• RAD202 Cohort 2 data (YE 2025 → follow-up 2026)

• RAD204 dose escalation complete

• RV-01 & RAD402 Phase 1 dosing underway

• RAD301 Phase 2 start

All fall within the 18-month cash bridge.

Preclinical/Upcoming:

• RV-01 (Betabart, Lu-177 mAb): B7H3+ solid tumors (e.g., sarcoma); IND cleared Jul 2025; Phase 1 dosing Q4 2025 (Australia).

• RAD402 (Tb-161 therapeutic): Prostate cancer (PSMA); Phase 1 start YE2025.

• Supply Chain: Deals with ITM (Lu-177) and Cyclotek (Tb-161) secure isotopes for scale-up.

Differentiation: Assets are “first/best-in-class” for niches (e.g., brain-penetrant RAD101). Partnerships (e.g., Lantheus) add credibility; no major IP cliffs near-term.

Risks & Catalysts

Upside Catalysts (H2 2025–H1 2026):

• RAD202 Cohort 2 data (YE2025): Positive efficacy could +50–100% stock pop.

• RAD101 topline (H1 2026): Proof-of-concept in brain mets = partnership bait.

• Phase 1 starts (RV-01, RAD402): Validates mAb platform.

• Sector tailwinds: Radiopharma M&A (e.g., AstraZeneca’s $2.4B Fusion acquisition).

Lantheus now owns 14.5% of RADX (post-A$7.6M investment, Oct 2025)

→ Clear alignment: RADX’s RAD101 (brain mets imaging) and RAD204 (PDL1 therapy) complement Lantheus’ portfolio.

Investment Takeaway (Absolute Mode)

• Lantheus isn’t a VC — they don’t back losers.

• Their $5M+ stake in RADX is a vote of confidence in:

•  RAD101 → potential **brain metastasis diagnostic** (no current standard)

•  RAD204 → **PDL1-targeted therapy** (synergy with immunotherapy)

• Upside catalyst: If RAD101 Phase 2b hits (H1 2026), Lantheus could lead a partnership or buyout.

Bottom Line:

Lantheus is the gold standard in commercial radiopharma.

Their backing turns RADX from “speculative microcap” → strategically de-risked.

Hold/Buy RADX — Lantheus just raised the floor.

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GRAIL is a company that does multi cancer early detection via blood testing. They compete with Guardant and Exact Sciences in this space, but have been first to market in by way of going direct to consumer, and were spun off from ILMN bc the EU felt it to be an unfair advantage for ILMN to have GRAIL as a business segment (or something). Was valued at $8b at that time. GRAIL ultimately tanked on the open market, going down to a maybe 600million market cap at one point in the last year or two, now at 3ish billion. Its seemingly almost a meme stock looking at its 1yr chart.

As for $MRUS, they were bought out by Genmab for $97. Maybe a week or two ago they were trading at $94…. even at today’s price (95ish), Ive had shares tendered for Dec 11, making it a 15-18% annualized gain, and getting some cash back just in time for a santa claus rally.

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The 8B valuation was insane and certainly cost ILMN far more. As far as I know, Grail doesn’t have any approved tests like GH or EXAS though consumers can order a screening for around 1k a pop. But I would be careful around this one.

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Fuma!!!

nice gain today! Any color to add?

https://investorhub.radiopharmtheranostics.com/announcements/7311773

AI summary:

This de-risks RAD101 significantly, validating its potential as a first-in-class diagnostic in a US$2B+ underserved market (brain metastases affect ~200K patients annually). Full topline expected H1 2026; FDA Fast Track status remains active.

Strong Buy – Revised Target: US$25 (from prior $10).

At ~US$18–19 current levels (post-surge), still undervalued:

• Implied mcap ~US$150–200M vs. comparable diagnostics (e.g., Telix imaging assets valued >US$1B).

• Lantheus’ 14.5% stake + partnership optionality adds floor.

• Next catalysts (RAD202/204 data H1 2026) could drive further re-rating.

High-conviction hold through 2026; 50–100% upside remains on path to commercialization/partnership. Speculative — allocate small.

Dreamer

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nice catch! didnt see this!

I agree that this de-risks RAD101. Since its just a diagnostic, all you really need to see is “did the tracer get to the right spot.” Seems like it generally did.

I think overall, the thesis is still intact - this is a small company that demonstrated step 1. The drug gets to the right spot. Next, can they convince prescribers to use it? and finally, can they scale/do they have the means?

I’d be cautious with TAM estimations, as the company itself says it’s roughly a $500m annual opportunity.

upcoming catalysts:

-results of the rest of this study (we just saw 12, total enrollment = 30) in 1H26

-P3 study to start in Q4 26. estimating launch in back half 2027.

-likely dilution as they only have enough cash to get to launch (early 2027).

Its radiotherapeutics pipeline is going to be awhile….

-as for 204 (PDL1) - first 2 doses didnt shrink tumors >30%. dose escalation due mid26

–as for 202 (HER2) - data release in mid 26 for first dosing

hard to not see a market cap north of $500m in 3-4 years unless P3 flops. probably gets bought out.

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I sold half my moon shot allocation at $11. The gains are more than my whole initial cost, so playing w house money on the remaining half.

They are doing a webinar today at 5pm cst. Will see if that provides another boost.

Either way, tentative plan is hold for $23-24 on remaining shares. Will see how long i hold out.

Thx for recommending this stock!

Dreamer

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Stock dipped below $7 before the webinar even started.

traders doing trader stuff.

glad i sold half at $11!

Will see how things go rest of week.

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Dreamer

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will add $LEGN to the watch list here (though I hold irl). its a $3.3b biotech that has the hottest CART therapy out there - growing sales more than 50% annually - which are already $1.9b.

Its moving further up in treatment lines for multiple myeloma, and is already embedded into guidelines. LEGN splits sales with JNJ. LEGN is cash flow positive now and expected to be profitable by the end of the year. Right now, some FUD going on surrounding recent studies with other promising treatments; but right now carvykti is in the lead BY FAR and has JNJ muscling it. would be curious what others think; seems like a reasonable turn around play. FWIW, i wouldnt bank on anything from their pipeline moving the needle- the same drugs have been in P1 for the last 3+ years, i feel like theyre there strictly for show at this point….

https://investors.legendbiotech.com/static-files/7e441cf8-9f20-43de-ae9c-1bccf2b34e68

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If no pipeline is material, and at $3.3b mkt cap now, what do you see as the stock price / mkt cap end game?

Buyout candidate or just a profit machine next few years?

Any idea on patent?

Side note: i guess radx just announced their study was filled and results expected in June.

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Profit machine. It’s a CART therapy moving into earlier treatment lines. They claim 5b plus opportunity, and honestly might be underselling it. It’s a record breaking CART- best selling ever, fast growing ever … And still growing. Literally their rate limiting step has been their ability to make it fast enough, and they built out their production facilities to try to scale.

<10% market saturation (meaning less than 10% of eligible pts in the US receive it).

Plus $950 mill in cash

There’s some slight competition out there, it is realistically is best in class now with name recognition and has a mountain of data behind it.

What’s $4 billion in sales (well, $2 billion which goes to legend) that will be profitable & printing cash, with a billion in cash worth? It’s gotta be closer to $8 billion, no? This might just become the face of Chinese biotech and the standard other companies out in the far east aspire to be.

https://investors.legendbiotech.com/static-files/c14353bd-ab7f-4c57-a95b-d62ee971c3b5

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Welp, looks like LEGN has something in the pipeline… up 40% today.

https://investors.legendbiotech.com/news-releases/news-release-details/legend-biotech-announces-late-breaking-oral-presentation-eha

Totally appropriate response if results hold up. N of 6 patients. But an off the shelf CART with manageable CRS? :hot_face::hot_face::hot_face::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::hot_face::hot_face::hot_face::sparkler::fireworks::sparkler::fireworks::sparkler::fireworks::sparkler:

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Fuma,
Kindly weigh in:

https://investorhub.radiopharmtheranostics.com/announcements/7644330

https://investorhub.radiopharmtheranostics.com/announcements/7644384

Trading halt now

https://investorhub.radiopharmtheranostics.com/announcements/7644435

Dreamer

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Intriguing, but early

Rad101 data you already knew.

Rad204 is just two patients. However. .. checkpoint inhibitors are known entities- there are several on the market… what’s not known is if making a radioactive version of them extends survival.

Now I’m not 100% certain of logistics, but if rad204 is limited by who can give radioactive meds (ie- can your local hospital or local oncology infusion center actually provide this) then it might only be restricted to larger facilities. If there isn’t limits on administration- meaning anyone that gives keytruda can more or less also give this - then that makes 204 quite a bit more valuable.

But if you’re merck staring at a keytruda patent cliff, (or someone with the 7th checkpoint inhibitor on the market trying to find a differentiator) RADX might be worth alot. RADX can’t ramp R&D like a big pharma, and if Novartis wanted to ram a PDL1 radio ligand through the pipeline, they could probably catch up to RADX fairly quickly.

Do they want early proof of concept at 5 billion on a known target? Or late proof of concept with better data at 15 billion? RADX is a buyout target, and probably for the betterment of humanity- this is something that should get to market fast if it works, and big pharma has the R&D pockets to make it happen asap

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I’m assuming / hoping it was paused because the price is (hopefully) going to skyrocket and they’re going to raise a bunch of cash for R&D.

Hope that’s the case, and if so, congrats. If we meet up in person, I’ll take a small black coffee :rofl:

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Per the earlier PR link, company asked for the halt due to “material” something something.

Expected to resume thurs night which is friday in australia.

Looks like they did a small raise:
https://www.themercury.com.au/business/stockhead/health-check-radiopharm-goes-to-the-well-for-16-million-after-clinical-trial-double-delight/news-story/5555eec9819a2b9c8949ca0349e79fde?nk=bd97937178a4b912fa78ba7b01f7c4f1-1784740630

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Halted until Monday now.

AI take on the PR:

What it implies

The company is saying the delay is administrative:

  • Finalizing subscriptions.
  • Finalizing settlement documents.
  • Specifically involving international investors.

That suggests the raise is already substantially spoken for.

If they were still trying to find investors, I would have expected different language.

Why “international investors” matters

Radiopharm is:

  • ASX-listed.
  • Nasdaq-listed.

The most likely international investors are institutions outside Australia.

Potentially:

  • U.S. biotech funds.
  • Healthcare specialist funds.
  • European life science investors.
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Placed dilution at $3.18 when stock was $4-4.50.

Straight out of esperion playbook!

I hate biotech.
Buying the $2.45 premarket in hopes of eventual move back up, at which point will probably sell most to break even and move on.

Another bad mgmt for retail.