$RADX - An actually intriguing biotech smallcap

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
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Super tiny ( less than $50m market cap) and early stages (everything P1). And theyre trying to get by with tiny trials since they dont have the cash.

BUT. radiopharma is kind of hot, and they have really intriguing targets - HER2, PDL1, and pancreatic CA. and best I can tell post night shift, lantheus has a 12% stake in the company, so I feel like they would be readily taken out with any positive data.

alternatively, you can ride the GRAIL wave or run arbitrage with MERUS for an ~15% annualized return.

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Hey Fuma!

Always appreciate new ideas. Can you please expand a bit on the above statement, when you have time? Thx!

Dreamer

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And the quick research, with AI help, that i have done looks good so far.

in for a toe dip.

Key 2026 Milestones fully funded:

• RAD101 Phase 2b topline (H1 2026)

• RAD202 Cohort 2 data (YE 2025 → follow-up 2026)

• RAD204 dose escalation complete

• RV-01 & RAD402 Phase 1 dosing underway

• RAD301 Phase 2 start

All fall within the 18-month cash bridge.

Preclinical/Upcoming:

• RV-01 (Betabart, Lu-177 mAb): B7H3+ solid tumors (e.g., sarcoma); IND cleared Jul 2025; Phase 1 dosing Q4 2025 (Australia).

• RAD402 (Tb-161 therapeutic): Prostate cancer (PSMA); Phase 1 start YE2025.

• Supply Chain: Deals with ITM (Lu-177) and Cyclotek (Tb-161) secure isotopes for scale-up.

Differentiation: Assets are “first/best-in-class” for niches (e.g., brain-penetrant RAD101). Partnerships (e.g., Lantheus) add credibility; no major IP cliffs near-term.

Risks & Catalysts

Upside Catalysts (H2 2025–H1 2026):

• RAD202 Cohort 2 data (YE2025): Positive efficacy could +50–100% stock pop.

• RAD101 topline (H1 2026): Proof-of-concept in brain mets = partnership bait.

• Phase 1 starts (RV-01, RAD402): Validates mAb platform.

• Sector tailwinds: Radiopharma M&A (e.g., AstraZeneca’s $2.4B Fusion acquisition).

Lantheus now owns 14.5% of RADX (post-A$7.6M investment, Oct 2025)

→ Clear alignment: RADX’s RAD101 (brain mets imaging) and RAD204 (PDL1 therapy) complement Lantheus’ portfolio.

Investment Takeaway (Absolute Mode)

• Lantheus isn’t a VC — they don’t back losers.

• Their $5M+ stake in RADX is a vote of confidence in:

•  RAD101 → potential **brain metastasis diagnostic** (no current standard)

•  RAD204 → **PDL1-targeted therapy** (synergy with immunotherapy)

• Upside catalyst: If RAD101 Phase 2b hits (H1 2026), Lantheus could lead a partnership or buyout.

Bottom Line:

Lantheus is the gold standard in commercial radiopharma.

Their backing turns RADX from “speculative microcap” → strategically de-risked.

Hold/Buy RADX — Lantheus just raised the floor.

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GRAIL is a company that does multi cancer early detection via blood testing. They compete with Guardant and Exact Sciences in this space, but have been first to market in by way of going direct to consumer, and were spun off from ILMN bc the EU felt it to be an unfair advantage for ILMN to have GRAIL as a business segment (or something). Was valued at $8b at that time. GRAIL ultimately tanked on the open market, going down to a maybe 600million market cap at one point in the last year or two, now at 3ish billion. Its seemingly almost a meme stock looking at its 1yr chart.

As for $MRUS, they were bought out by Genmab for $97. Maybe a week or two ago they were trading at $94…. even at today’s price (95ish), Ive had shares tendered for Dec 11, making it a 15-18% annualized gain, and getting some cash back just in time for a santa claus rally.

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The 8B valuation was insane and certainly cost ILMN far more. As far as I know, Grail doesn’t have any approved tests like GH or EXAS though consumers can order a screening for around 1k a pop. But I would be careful around this one.

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Fuma!!!

nice gain today! Any color to add?

https://investorhub.radiopharmtheranostics.com/announcements/7311773

AI summary:

This de-risks RAD101 significantly, validating its potential as a first-in-class diagnostic in a US$2B+ underserved market (brain metastases affect ~200K patients annually). Full topline expected H1 2026; FDA Fast Track status remains active.

Strong Buy – Revised Target: US$25 (from prior $10).

At ~US$18–19 current levels (post-surge), still undervalued:

• Implied mcap ~US$150–200M vs. comparable diagnostics (e.g., Telix imaging assets valued >US$1B).

• Lantheus’ 14.5% stake + partnership optionality adds floor.

• Next catalysts (RAD202/204 data H1 2026) could drive further re-rating.

High-conviction hold through 2026; 50–100% upside remains on path to commercialization/partnership. Speculative — allocate small.

Dreamer

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nice catch! didnt see this!

I agree that this de-risks RAD101. Since its just a diagnostic, all you really need to see is “did the tracer get to the right spot.” Seems like it generally did.

I think overall, the thesis is still intact - this is a small company that demonstrated step 1. The drug gets to the right spot. Next, can they convince prescribers to use it? and finally, can they scale/do they have the means?

I’d be cautious with TAM estimations, as the company itself says it’s roughly a $500m annual opportunity.

upcoming catalysts:

-results of the rest of this study (we just saw 12, total enrollment = 30) in 1H26

-P3 study to start in Q4 26. estimating launch in back half 2027.

-likely dilution as they only have enough cash to get to launch (early 2027).

Its radiotherapeutics pipeline is going to be awhile….

-as for 204 (PDL1) - first 2 doses didnt shrink tumors >30%. dose escalation due mid26

–as for 202 (HER2) - data release in mid 26 for first dosing

hard to not see a market cap north of $500m in 3-4 years unless P3 flops. probably gets bought out.

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I sold half my moon shot allocation at $11. The gains are more than my whole initial cost, so playing w house money on the remaining half.

They are doing a webinar today at 5pm cst. Will see if that provides another boost.

Either way, tentative plan is hold for $23-24 on remaining shares. Will see how long i hold out.

Thx for recommending this stock!

Dreamer

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Stock dipped below $7 before the webinar even started.

traders doing trader stuff.

glad i sold half at $11!

Will see how things go rest of week.

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Dreamer

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