MarketWatch headline: How low can the stock market go? 4 bear scenarios investors should keep in mind
Last Updated: Sept. 8, 2022 at 10:06 p.m. ET
Sub-headline: 4 bear scenarios investors should keep in mind
by Isabel Wang
Last Updated: Sept. 8, 2022 at 10:06 p.m. ET
https://archive.ph/1mmRa
Both the MSCI EAFE Index MFSU22, +2.47%, which measures the equity market performance of developed markets outside of the U.S. and Canada, and the Emerging Market equity index, traded below their early 2020 levels, Colas noted.
“If ‘rest of world’ stocks have already given up their pandemic gains, why should U.S. large caps be any different,” Colas said.
The worst 20-year compounded annual growth rate for the S&P 500 since the Great Depression was the period from 1999 to 2018, at 5.6% annually, according to Colas. If that is also a “fair” return assumption for the last five years, then note that S&P 500 closed at 2,465 on Sept. 7, 2017. Applying the same return would see the S&P 500 at 3,236.