My (almost) end of month positions

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Here are my roughly end of the month positions in descending order:

SYNA
CELG
UBNT
BOFI
AMBA
MTZ

These six positions are the same six as last month. Because they are all almost the same size, ranging from 8.6% to 7.1%, they tend to change order, but they’re the same six. Since I currently have 26 positions, an average position would be 3.85%, so these six positions are all just about double positions. All except SYNA are MF SA or MF RB recommendations.

Next I have 10 positions ranging in size from 5.0% to 3.2% so you could think of them as centered around the average position range.

SZYM
WAB
HZNP
AFOP
Z
CSGP
SCTY
JCOM
CALL
PSIX

Only four of these ten are MF recommendations (WAB, Z, CSGP, SCTY). JCOM is a new position this month.

WAB, SZYM, HZNP and SCTY were also listed as average positions last month, and PSIX, AFOP, CALL, and CSGP were listed as just below average positions so there is considerable consistency.

P
MANH

Next we have two more new positions, Pandora (a Rule Breaker recommendation), which has dropped straight down since I bought it, in spite of increasing revenues over 50% each quarter. They forecast only raising revenue 39% next quarter so it sold off 15% more. Then there’s Manhattan Associates, a two times Hidden Gem recommendation and a Best Buy this month. These are 2.5% to 2.1% so you could call them half positions.

Now we have six small positions ranging from 1.5% to 0.9%. These include

NGVC
PFIE
INBK
LNKD
APPY
ELLI

PFIE and INBK are new. LNKD, I had had before and sold at $240 or so, and bought back at these lower prices. ELLI is reduced in size as I sold some to buy stocks that were way down or new purchases.

TSLA
KRED

These are tiny positions, at 0.65% and 0.38%. TSLA is smaller because I used it, like ELLI, for cash for purchases. KRED you already know.

INVN, LOCK, DPZ, and YHOO are no longer positions. None of them because I found something wrong with them, but just because I found things I thought I liked better.

JCOM, P, MANH, PFIE, INBK, LNKD, and KRED are new.

I hope you find my ramblings useful.

Saul

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Thank you for the reasoning behind your positions. I’m betting SYNA is a RB or SA new pick within the next 3 months.

Out of your smaller positions (P and below) do you have a favorite (whether it’s a valid reason or not)? I know I usually do, curious to hear your thoughts.

Nate

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Interesting to see INBK on your list of recent purchases. You must have put some thought into that since you recently said you were not interested in them. What changed your mind.

I’m also surprised to see that you moved out of INVN. They seem to be very highly thought of by MF.

Thanks for all of your postings. I enjoy seeing what you do and listening to your thoughts on stocks.

tdonb

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Out of your smaller positions (P and below) do you have a favorite (whether it’s a valid reason or not)?

Hi Nate,

A lot of the small positions are small for a reason:

ELLI and TSLA because I was selling some for cash to buy other things (If I was still working and had a source of outside income I probably wouldn’t have sold any of those two positions).

KRED, APPY and PFIE are really small companies.

INBK, as I just explained, has very low volume and very wide bid-asked spreads.

LNKD and NGVC are great companies but sell at quite high PE ratios. While I have some high PE stocks like Z and CSGP, I don’t want to overweight in them.

MANH, I’m just building a position, but it’s not a real fast grower and I probably won’t make it too much larger.

P got killed after earnings, down over 15%, in spite of what I thought were good results (for example: Revenue was up 54% year-over-year. Advertising revenue was up 45% year-over-year. Subscription and other revenue was up 94%. They also raised revenue and earnings guidance slightly.) They expect to have positive earnings starting next quarter.

That’s the rogue’s gallery.

Hope that helps,

Saul

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Hi Saul,

Thanks for posting your positions. I have a couple of questions about the rationale behind a few of your holdings.

  1. CALL is a new position and a turn around story. I can see why you might be interested in own the company. But I’m wondering why you chose to allocate such a large amount (3% to a new position). You must be very confident about the future success.

  2. Looks like SZYM is at about 5% in your portfolio yet it still seems like there are a lot of risks and they are not yet profitable. I understand why you own it but I wonder why you have such a large position given the risks that remain. If this position has grown into 5% for you then that would explain your current allocation.

  3. You sold out of INVN earlier this year, then you bought back in and now you sold again. I ask mainly because INVN is my largest holding. I respect your opinion a lot so I’m wondering what you’re seeing.

Thanks.

Chris

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