My end of the month positions

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Saul, would you mind sharing your portfolio weighting at the end of this past June (end of Q2 2014) like you did last month? Inquiring minds would like to know…

Hi Charlie, Here are my positions as of the close on July 1st

Two VERY big positions. These are between 11.0 and 11.6% which is larger than I usually want to let positions get. However they’ve grown to this size and I haven’t seen a reason to trim them yet.

SYNA
UBNT

Two very big positions. These are also high conviction stocks, and are between 9.0 and 9.3% positions.

CELG
BOFI

Two big positions. These are between 6.9 and 7.1% positions. Note that the six positions up to here make up 55% of my total, so I am somewhat concentrated.

SZYM
Z

Then six “average” size positions running from 6.2 to 3.6%. I like them all. They just haven’t had a chance to grow into bigger positions yet.

HZNP
AMBA
JCOM
PFIE
AIOCF
AFOP

Then six small positions running from 3.0 down to 1.8%. These are small for various reasons. CSGP because of very high PE, CALL because I’m not sure they will pull it off, SKX because it’s new, and I’m not sure about a shoe chain, PSIX because it’s high PE and because I sold some for cash to buy other things, WAB because while it’s not at an absolutely high PE, it’s at a high PE for WAB, and also because I sold some for cash to buy other things, and AMAVF because it’s a new repurchase and it’s a Swedish company which complicates buying it.

CSGP
CALL
SKX
PSIX
WAB
AMAVF

Finally, two tiny companies, at about 0.5%. These are KRED and another that I’ll probably write more about at the beginning of next week. These are penny stocks, and are just for playing around. They are really tiny positions as you can see.

Seven weeks ago, at the bottom of that horrible growth-stock sell-off (which now is just a distant memory), when someone on the board was panicking, saying that he was down so much that he was afraid he’d never get it back, I answered that I was down 13%, but it had never even occurred to me that I’d end up down for the year. It was true. I wasn’t exaggerating. It actually had never even occurred to me. These were good stocks with great prospects, and I knew I wasn’t going to be down for the year. I’m now up 5.7% (which is up 21.5% from where I was when I said that, less than two months ago). The take-away is don’t panic at irrational sell-offs. If it’s one stock, then you have to make sure there’s not something wrong with that particular company. When it’s all your stocks and the pundits are all saying the big crash is coming, relax. It’s just something that happens now and then.

Saul

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Saul,

Just for a reference point. If you had cash to deploy now, would you be adding to any of the top 6? By my eye, several have had big runs, except BOFI and SZYM (although this one is up recently).

CELG, Z, SYNA are way up. Would you add to those? Or are they cash source candidates?

UBNT is about back where it started, it was way down and now back up again.

I am wondering what you see when you look, if you wanted positions in these names would you add to any right now? you can assume they aren’t your largest for this question I suppose.

Thanks

Gator

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Saul, Just for a reference point. If you had cash to deploy now, would you be adding to any of the top 6? By my eye, several have had big runs, except BOFI and SZYM (although this one is up recently). CELG, Z, SYNA are way up. Would you add to those? Or are they cash source candidates? UBNT is about back where it started, it was way down and now back up again. I am wondering what you see when you look, if you wanted positions in these names would you add to any right now? you can assume they aren’t your largest for this question I suppose.

Gator, that’s an intriguing question because it makes me look at the positions from a different position. What if I didn’t have a position in these stocks? Would I take one now? Well, when Synaptics shot up the way it did, I sold a small amount, but then the next day, after reflection, I bought it back about 75 cents higher. I think the two acquisitions they made, took an already good company and remade it. They are just starting out! I would definitely take a position now. As for UBNT, I have confidence in the CEO and the business model. Both of these companies are rapidly growing and, in contrast to the usual MF RB stock, they are selling at under or about 25 times earnings. Then the next two. BOFI was at $106, now it’s at $76. roughly 20 times earnings, only good news. Sure I’d buy it. CELG, not growing as fast as the others, earnings about 20% per year and a PE in the high twenties, which you might say is a little high for it, but they have an incredible pipeline of products and great strategic alliances with little companies. Very consistent growth of trailing earnings. I’d buy it too. SZYM, no question. If I didn’t have a position I’d take one. Z, I’d be more careful. It never sold off, so this latest run-up isn’t regaining lost ground but is way up. I guess, I might take a third of a position, to get my hand in the game, and then see what happens. I’m not selling any of these for cash or any other reason at the present time.

Hope this helps.

Saul

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Indeed.
The market certainly feels hot right now, so I am not really buying much. I could look at some exchanges though
Thanks for looking.

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I’m now up 5.7% (which is up 21.5% from where I was when I said that, less than two months ago). The take-away is don’t panic at irrational sell-offs. If it’s one stock, then you have to make sure there’s not something wrong with that particular company. When it’s all your stocks and the pundits are all saying the big crash is coming, relax. It’s just something that happens now and then.

Wise words, Saul, and hopefully these events are ones we can take advantage of when Mr. Market gives us a bargain!

Pete

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Gator, Here are a few unsolicited Words of Wisdom…

After asking me whether I would buy any of my top six positions now, and learning that I would, you wrote The market certainly feels hot right now, so I am not really buying much. I could look at some exchanges though. My words of advice would be that you’d be much better off staying nearly 100% in the market and just deciding WHICH stocks you want to invest in, instead of complicating it with deciding WHEN you want to buy, and trying to time the market. For example, you don’t want to buy now because the market looks good, but I suspect you didn’t want to buy seven weeks ago at the bottom either, because then everyone was saying the market is going lower. And if these stocks go up 10% from here you certainly won’t want to buy, but if they go down 10% from here, you’ll wait for 20%, and then if they start back up you’ll wait for them to get back to down 10% again, which may never happen.

Just think, if you stay fully invested you can forget about all those crazy-making decisions, and just concentrate on which stocks you want to own for the long term.

JMHO

Saul

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“Just think, if you stay fully invested you can forget about all those crazy-making decisions, and just concentrate on which stocks you want to own for the long term.” Saul

Wiser words are seldom spoken.

Thanks, Saul, and truly a wonderful balloon filled, champagne toasting, 6 month congratulations!

Jim

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Saul;

…if these stocks go up 10% from here you certainly won’t want to buy, but if they go down 10% from here, you’ll wait for 20%, and then if they start back up you’ll wait for them to get back to down 10% again,
…

Ha. Sounds like you are talking to me. I am aware of this problem of mine and have been working to correct it. Thanks for the reinforcement.

-M

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Gator, that’s an intriguing question because it makes me look at the positions from a different position. What if I didn’t have a position in these stocks? Would I take one now?

Reminds me of a comment my father once said about investing. “If you wouldn’t buy the investment today, it’s time to sell.”

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Saul,

re: Words of Wisdom…

Ah Woulda Coulda Shoulda rings a bell for we technical traders as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_analysis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

Quillnpenn -

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