Thank you! I have a Koyfin subscription where I have the following screener which catches most of the stocks I discover. I look for mostly U.S. based companies that are between 10 mil. and 2B market cap, with gross profit margins between 30 and 95%, a revenue CAGR of 30% in the last 12 months and analyst estimated revision up of 15% over past 1 year. Then I use a predefined dashboard in tradingView to quickly visually look at last 5 years of key metrics and see if they are improving. I have coded a indicator in TradingView that tells me on any stock what my valuation is. It’s not perfect by any means, but I can tell if this is in the ball park of “interesting”. I also use the Koyfin charting tool to see a few of the beats and analyst estimates trends over time. This puts me at the starting line to research what the hell these tiny companies are solving for.
For HIMS, I have done some incremental add but a significant part of the position has just earned it’s size by growing.
Couple of things I like about this stock currently are:
- The management knows the estimates game. It has a beat all the way back to 2021. And the estimates have been revised up by 18% which they come out every quarter and do.
- The momentum is with the business. Significantly higher average volume traded in the last 3 months with the stock moving up. Google Trends search exploding. Apple app store download rank improved to 5th last week.
- Their investor presentation shows the progression of continued new products that they have released to keep the growth intact.
- The significant gaining of market share from other tele-health companies as some have pointed out already
- Currently, in US the obesity rate sits at 42% and it has grown 26% since 2008. It’s like a horrible secular trend which is advantageous for companies that are in the weight loss business. And all the competitors have had huge revenue boosts when they introduced this in their portfolio. And GLP-1 medication is not included in the current estimates.
- And even if they have a couple of mis-steps, the valuation maybe low enough to put a floor after an initial sell off.
All theory, let’s see how it goes.