Ryshab's September 2025 Portfolio Update

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

My Performance recap (Benchmark: S&P 500)

  • 1 Year CAGR: +138%

  • 3 Year CAGR: +69%

  • 5 Year CAGR: loading…

  • 2021: -36% (+27%)

  • 2022: -76% (-19%)

  • 2023: +80% (+24%)

  • 2024: +104% (+23%)

  • 2025 YTD: +86% (+15%)

Current portfolio holdings:

  • ALAB 12%

  • TARS 10%

  • RDDT 10%

  • DAVE 10%

  • CRDO 10%

  • ETON 9%

  • HIT 9%

  • CRMD 9%

  • MDGL 6%

  • AVDL 5%

  • HALO 5%

  • DCTH 4%

  • Cash 1% (Cash 4% but Options -3%)

Portfolio is currently 99% long and has 12 positions.

Changes this month

  • Sold:

    • NVDA

      • Trying to raise some cash in my portfolio. I choose Nvidia because of two reasons. One, the trend of analyst beats have really slowed down. I don’t think it’s out of realm of possibility, that Nvidia might come out and miss a quarter in the next 2-3 earnings calls. That would set the industry tumbling but will be affect Nvidia more long term. And second point is it is lower beta than my other holdings. . I still believe it does a comfortable 20-30% over the next few years but since I am still chasing alpha, this is too big of a business to be in my portfolio

    • MNDY

      • This was an assignment via option play. My goal was to recover my capital and get out of this position. It’s a mid 40’s score in my methodology and everything I own is higher quality than this currently. Hence, the exit. It did turn a small profit for me before my exit

My holdings - historical view:

image
image2258×2102 428 KB

My methodology current scores:
(All green bars I own)

image
image2874×1518 285 KB

Note: This was a month where none of my holdings reported. So not really much to add in terms of fundamentals. Hence, my update will be brief on the businesses front.

Individual position commentary:

  • ALAB - 12%

    • ALAB pulled back decently this past month. This stock went from 50 to 250. So not really surprising that it’s taking a break. It’s one of my highest conviction plays and I am happy to add to my position in sub-200 range

  • TARS - 10%

    • The breakout I was expecting from this business purely based on steller KPIs over the last few quarters, finally started to play out. 10% position I feel is enough exposure as I expect this to double in performance. So if portfolio goes no where over next year, TARS can easily be 20% of my portfolio. Hence, I am going to stay put and let this unfold

  • RDDT - 10%

    • Reddit had a very nice pullback mainly due to concerns about ChatGPT usage of data. I think their business model and growth is durable and plan to add around this area. I also think Reddit can extract more value per customer to keep the cash flow engine going. Until a significant dent happens in earnings or guidance, I would most likely stay the course

  • DAVE - 10%

    • DAVE after it’s massive run over the last year has had three months of good consolidation as it digests the gains. Last time it took five months to get going after a big more up. It’s also being affected by the sympathy play from Sezzle. For me, the story hasn’t changed. The numbers DAVE has are far superior than Sezzle or Affirm and others

  • CRDO -10%

    • Just like Astera Labs, Credo almost had a 6x run this year. This thing can still fall by 40% or double from here, I have no idea. The tailwind is there, the company is executing and the markets are overall favorable. So I continue to stay the course

  • ETON - 9%

    • ETON had a good September price action and have been consolidating a bit in early October going. Pretty normal market movement so far. I expect this to more only after earnings in a meaningful way. Earnings are almost a month and a half away

  • HIT - 9%

    • Health in Tech announced a partnership with ATON to develop a blockchain solution to digitally store healthcare insurance claims. I feel this aligns well with HIT as a platform. The risk profile and brand attractiveness of a platform that uses blockchain to secure it’s transactions seems appealing for customer acquisition. Let’s see how this plays out

  • CRMD - 9%

    • September undid all the good momentum CorMedix had from August. It made progress in enrollment for efficacy of REZZAYO. I feel this might take a quarter of two to move as long as they produce good results

  • MDGL - 6%

    • Madrigal continues to do well as an investment. It’s very early in their commercialization journey. As long as they hit their numbers and gets towards profitability, I feel this will do well for my portfolio

  • AVDL - 5%

    • Avadel had a court verdict to pay almost 4% sales royalty to Jazz. The good news is the overhang of the case is over. And I don’t feel like 4% is too big a dent when the business is almost at 90% margins. The market has given back a few of the gains after this hit the news but I think once everyone digests the info, we should be fine

  • HALO - 5%

    • Halozyme announced they are going to buy Electrofi in a 900 mil. deal. They reiterated the guidance after the deal announcement. As you would expect, markets did not like the acquisition news. I think since HALO did a big guidance upgrade in Aug already, they are playing safe. Let’s see how the next quarter results go and if they have more info in the business to update the guide. However, HALO is not a big beta stock. Due to that, this may be the next one to leave my portfolio

  • DCTH - 4%

    • Delcatch was pretty flat for the month of September. I reduced my position in this business due to purely performance reasons. I am trying to reward businesses that are performing for me more than businesses that should perform for me.

Wrapping Up

September was a pretty roller coaster month for my portfolio but ended with a +7% return. Overall one of the slower months for my portfolio. With Nasdaq having a 5% month and ARKK pulling up a 15% month, my 7% returns were pretty ordinary. Seems like one of those months that slipped away. It’s important my portfolio outruns these months because when the tide will turn I will get chopped pretty heavily too. High beta cuts both ways. October is alway a bit dicey until mid month, so let’s see how things go.

An absolute privilege to post here. Thank you for reading. Cheers!

My previous portfolio reviews:

2025: Jan 2025 | Feb 2025 | March 2025 | April 2025 | May 2025 | June 2025 | July 2025 | August 2025

2024: May 2024 | June 2024 | July 2024 | Aug 2024 | Sept 2024 Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | Dec 2024

61 Likes
2

This has been a great set of write ups and discussion this month. Thanks to all who’ve participated.

I wanted to make sure this statement was pointed out to any newer readers as it’s an inherent feature/bug of high-growth portfolios. It’s why holding companies accountable to business performance is so important to this style, and why I appreciate there’s been so much company commentary in these recaps (especially @SlowAndFast’s format).

The market issues many of these firms a premium due to recent business performance. One of the biggest lessons I’ve learned from Saul is being willing to walk away from a company when that performance falters for cloudy reasons. We’ll gain a lot of clarity on the recent excellent discussions on infrastructure, storage, batteries, neo-clouds, etc heading into next month’s recaps as we start to get our next wave of earnings reports.

24 Likes
3

For a given stock, has anyone tried this calculation:
stock beta (correlation with broader market)
stock alpha (individual stock over/under performance)
stock return in your portfolio

stock return in your portfolio = beta + alpha +/- (effect of your market timing due to timing of buys/sells)

?

This would tell you how much of your performance is attributable to stock picking (alpha) versus correlation with the broader market (beta) versus market timing.

7 Likes