Ryshab's April 2026 Portfolio Update

[ryshab]

My Performance (Benchmark: S&P 500)

• 2021: -36% (+27%)

• 2022: -76% (-19%)

• 2023: +80% (+24%)

• 2024: +104% (+23%)

• 2025: +85% (+18%)

• Apr 2026: +6% (+6%)

CAGR

• 1 Year CAGR: +78% (+31%)

• 3 Year CAGR: +76% (+22%)

• 5 Year CAGR: +2% (+13%)

Current portfolio holdings:

• AI Networking (28%)

  • CRDO 24%

  • ALAB 4%

• AI Memory (23%)

  • SNDK 12%

  • MU 11%

• AI Software (15%)

  • RDDT 11%

  • APP 4%

• AI Drones (12%)

  • ONDS 7%

  • KRKNF 5%

• Payments (10%)

  • DAVE

• AI Compute (8%)

  • AVGO 4%

  • NVDA 4%

• Crypto (4%)

  • FBTC

Portfolio is 100% long and has 12 positions in 7 themes.

Changes this month:

• Sold

  • SEZL - much weaker structurally than DAVE. Hence, I bet on DAVE.

• Bought

  • APP, KRKNF, NVDA, AVGO

My Methodology - current top quality scores:
Note: Ondas omitted as it will be sold soon

My Methodology Score to Valuation Matrix:
Note: All names on this list are quality. And the percent undervalued is directional in nature and not to be taken as a predictive valuation

**
Why I own what I own:**
Note: Sharing my opinion, not advice

AI Networking (28%) - CRDO 24%, ALAB 4%

• I am fully aware of how big Credo has become in my portfolio. It’s all organic so not much I did. I would like to keep this at a max around 25% and bring it down to 20% occasionally. Credo usually has earnings quite late in the cycle, so I expect the stock to move based on other peers reporting and a more like sell the news event when it finally reports. So for now holding and trimming as necessary. I am pretty confident these networking businesses both copper and photonics are going to blow it out. The question is all about the guide. Can they keep guiding 20% higher. I think that will be needed to keep the pace.

AI Memory (23%) - MU 12%, SNDK 11%

• DRAM is 90% up in last 14 months and HBM is 300% up. On the other side NAND is 35% up in last 8 months. When you combine the exploding demand and non-stop pricing power, this is what you get. As I was saying, this can totally get into a bubble situation. MU went from 20% margins to 74% and SanDisk went from 27% to 78% margins. Who knows how long this will last. But if this lasts another 6 months, these stocks can double/triple from here. In my mind, I would rather be 30% late in getting out than getting out early.

AI Software (15%) - RDDT 11%, APP 4%

• I think the overall software sector has bottomed and that should work as tailwind now, at least not going to be a headwind going forward. This allows the best software names, the ones that still are projected to have high growth, good profitability and trending higher and still staying ahead of analyst estimates and raising guides to start to move now. The two names I have in this space are Reddit and Applovin. Applovin is a smaller position due to valuation. No question about it’s quality. Reddit is the dark horse. Every beat and raise it should move up significantly as it is still undervalued in my opinion.

AI Drones (12%) - ONDS 7%, KRKNF 5%

• I am going to sell out of Ondas. I realized a lot of Ondas’s growth metric is derived my it’s analyst beat in last 12 months which is 350%+. So I capped the percent that you can get a bump from in analyst beat to 100% and that made Ondas fall from a high quality score to now 30. I still think if they execute they will do very well but it doesn’t fit my risk profile and methodology anymore. Hence the exit next week.

• Kraken is in OTC and is a tiny tiny company The key here will be patience. Can I wait for months when everything else is pumping but Kraken is executing to build up towards another contract. The moves will be fast and gaps everywhere as the report quarterly and gets new contracts. So we will see if I can hold on to it if this executes.

Payments (10%) - DAVE

• Dave is such an interesting story. Right from the monster beat in May 2025 it was on my radar. I stayed patient and finally got an entry in Aug of last year. From then till a month ago, it did nothing. It was a real test of patience. The sector was out of favor. The underlying metrics of the business continued to improve yet not price appreciation. But finally in this latest market rally, Dave participated. It’s back to it’s 52 week highs and I have a feeling it’s going to continue this time. Fundamentally, I have nothing against this business. I just need them to keep up the growth - which is borderline above 30% mark.

AI Compute (8%) - AVGO 4%, NVDA 4%

• Very high scores in my methodology and the two big giants driving everything else. My theory is they will at least double the S&P 500 in the long term. So that is not a bad place to park my capital. And if things get really bad and the market provides a great opportunity, then I use this capital to go after the faster horses in the race. At least that’s my thinking for now.

Crypto (4%) - FBTC

• I am betting as risk assets starts to move up, Bitcoin should participate and at least double in this cycle. So I am in.

Wrapping Up

What a month! From -32% to +6% in one month, that’s pretty crazy. And a LOT OF LUCK! The rally that started in April had AI Networking and Memory sectors lead the charge. I was luckily positioned for it to take advantage. Portfolio after a 7 month trek is back to ATH. Very thankful for that. By far the best performance month I have had since I started this style of investing. I do feel we are just a month into this bull run and if this is anything like the past few runs, we should have a good 6 months+ window to appreciate our portfolios. Both the last year’s downturn and this year’s drawdown were from policy related issues, that can and has changed on a dime. Though I feel the snap back part of the rally and the easy money is over but a sustained grind higher is very possible and a few of these AI sectors has a good chance to get into bubble territory, thinking 50 to 100 P/S levels. All the fundamentals are in place for a bubble to happen. My main goal from here is to not chase and stay as long as I can in the best names until the valuation voice in my heads gets unbearable. Let’s see if any of this turns out to be true. For now, I am a buyer at any significant pullback.

Thank you for reading. Always a privilege to post here. Cheers!

My previous portfolio reviews:

2026: Feb | Mar

2025: Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec

2024: May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec

[Graydrake]

Great report!

Meaningful, visually identifiable patterns always contribute to better decisions than the same data held solely in one’s mind. To this end can you define the x axis in your scatter chart.

Thanks,

Gray

[MONYMAN3]

Along the lines of Kraken, there is a small battery company that I have followed for a while. They are a battery company that has concentrated their sale efforts toward drones. This has proved to be an area of interest to investors lately. I had thought their TAM might be too small to be investable until I heard an early VC investor mention how far behind IRAN, China and Ukraine the US is in this area. She mentioned that US manufactured drones number less than 25,000 last year, while the aforementioned countries manufactured them in the millions. As a matter of fact, Ukraine is assisting us in the area of cheaper drone technology. The DOD gave AMPX a 14.8M contract in March 2026. And recently they procured 35M PO from a top drone manufacturer. Their batteries use a silicon anode battery technology which offer up to double the specific energy and energy density of traditional graphite batteries, allowing for longer missions. What drew my attention was their last earnings report where sales increased 137%. They recently partnered with 3 South Korean contract manufacturers to ramp production .Net loss of $44.0 million reflects one time impairment charges of $22.5 million as Q4 gross margin improved to 24% driving first positive quarterly non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 million. Delivered gross margin of 24%, with gross profit improving 80% sequentially and 365% YoY. Ended the year with cash and cash equivalents of $91.9 million. They expect 2026 sales to be up 70% yoy. YTD stock performance is up about 165%, last 3 months 67% and the last month up 34%. They are scheduled to report 5/7/26 post market. I will be watching with interest.

[ryshab]

To this end can you define the x axis in your scatter chart.

Thanks @Graydrake ! The x axis is my the output of my valuation formula that I use for evaluating businesses on the same scale. So it is showing how much by % is the business undervalued currently. To add more color, I use EV/GP/NTM Growth as the core metric. Then I will divide the quality score/100 by the above metric to derive at valuation. The reason I use quality score and not 1 is because not all businesses deserves to get to 1 valuation. Similar to PEG ratio, this rather than tracking to 1, tracks to the businesses quality score. SO the end formula looks like this at a high level:
(QS/100) / (EV/GP/NTM Growth).

Along the lines of Kraken, there is a small battery company that I have followed for a while. They are a battery company that has concentrated their sale efforts toward drones.

Thanks @MONYMAN3 for bringing this to our attention. Very interesting company and not bad dilution either. I will definitely look into it. Do you know what is their potential long term gross margin possibility? I asked chatGPT and it said could be around 30-35%, which is not too far from what they did last quarter.

[MONYMAN3]

From today’s conference call: As we close out the decade, we are targeting making the most of over $600 million of contracted capacity by enabling our customers’ most mission-critical duty cycles and positioning us to deliver over 30% gross margins. By maintaining our resourceful culture and low-cost structure, we can then translate that into at least 20% EBITDA margins. So mid 30% gm seem to be about right.

[Graydrake]

Thank you for the response!

I like the concept of QS, but do not understand the last line in your reply to me - (QS/100)/EV/GP/NTM GROWTH). Could you complete this equation QS = ?.

Your scatter chart is similar, and more informative, than the one in Jamin Ball’s weekly Clouded Judgement missive.

You are aware of my hypergrowth Database which numerically weights the value of a package of ticker metrics in an attempt to replicate Saul’s decision making process. My current version captures the combined value of growth and risk categories, but I am continuously seeking to establish a more meaningful weighting of the combination. The Database would be further refined with the addition of a QS column.

Gray

[priestinacloset]

I know you held TARS for a while, curious if you follow it and what you think.about Q1?

Xdemvy grew 86% to 145M vs 2025 Q1 despite ophthalmology scripts taking a hit.

They said they will stop reporting discounts.

Reiterated guidance for this year and think it will be a 2B drug by 2028.

Their EPS was .16 loss vs .3 consensus.

Stock didn’t budge despite this news.

[Graydrake]

I have been long TARS for some months, as it continues to underperform reality.

Their drug Xdemvy is the only global drug for the treatment of Demodex Blepharitis and there is a projected TAM of $3 to 5 billion. Articles in Seeking Alpha continue to draw in doctors, who confirm they have no options to successfully treat DB except Xdemvy.

I blame the executive team for the lull in TAM pricing for not being more effective in defining the global market for Xdemvy.

Gray

[ryshab]

@Graydrake

I like the concept of QS, but do not understand the last line in your reply to me - (QS/100)/EV/GP/NTM GROWTH). Could you complete this equation QS = ?.

Thanks Gray. The quality score is my quantitative proxy for the quality of business.

Formula is as follows:
(NTM Growth% + FCF Margin% - Dilution %) * ((Gross Margin% +100%)/2)

I am skipping the nuances that are built into the formula, otherwise, this post will get too long. What I am trying to do with this formula is get the businesses that is firing on all engines separate themselves from a varied list of issues many hyper growth stocks have. Such as highly negative fcf, high dilution, low gross margins. I have recently started to track the trend of the quality score so between every quarterly report, is the score trending up or down? Trending up suggests analysts are trying to catch up to the story. So a 40 score that is trending at 30% higher can be better than a stagnant 60 score. Still experimenting but I see a lot of value in keeping track of trends across quality score, growth, analyst upgrade percent, gm and fcf. When you start combining the trends, some real insights starts showing up that is not visible from a standard score. The whole goal of this exercise is to move left on the S-curve stocks. If this trend analysis can get me, 1 to 2 qtrs ahead, then I move from owning the business that has gone through 60% actualization of curve to maybe 30%.

@priestinacloset

I know you held TARS for a while, curious if you follow it and what you think.about Q1?

Thanks @priestinacloset for the question. I thought the results were quite good. Every stock has it’s own characteristics. Tarsus tends to hibernate long periods of time and then shoot up in one quarter. The current hibernation period is very similar to the first half of 2025. And then last year starting from the Aug results, it doubled. I expect something similar. The range of it’s price to sales is between 5 and 10. And now it is right at the lower band. The beats look fine, the analyst upgrade rate has slowed but it’s still in an uptrend. Peak sales of their Xdemvy product line is still far away so the p/s range should hold. The key with Tarsus is to move from the single asset specialty pharma commercialization story to platform with multiple products and pipeline. That’s what the management team is working towards and hence we don’t see the jump in fcf yet. But the margins are 94%, so they can turn the profitability level at any point they want.

I think it has a potential to double in the next 12 months if it executes. The whole sector has been out of favor and with the advent of AI stocks, I moved away from pharma because the ROI is currently skewed towards the AI narrative.

TARS is still on my radar and so is KRYS, HNGE, HALO, DCTH, ETON, ADMA, ZVRA, FENC, TVTX and TGTX.

[Graydrake]

Ryshab

As always, thanks for your response.

I too use a ticker rating, called Metric Targets Achieved, which includes a combination of growth metrics, offset by risk metrics, which for many/most hypergrowth companies drag down the overall score, some significantly. My ranking becomes the order which defines the sequence of a more detailed investigation for the next purchase - and consideration for every exit. I am working on a revision to this concept to separate these categories, which would mean growth became the only driver of the sequence of review for buys and risk categories became a secondary and separate decision for when to abandon the buy/hold decision.

On TARS, as my earlier post suggests, I believe TARS will have a significant run as the result of it sole medication for Demodex blepharitis. I really do no understand why TARS is still under the radar. The global TAM will expand significantly with the expected near-term approval in Europe. This only risk I foresee is the approval of a competitive medication, which my research has not identified.

Gray

[MONYMAN3]

Just an anecdote. I am pretty sure I suffer from Demodex blepharitis. Every morning my eyelids have a crust on them and lids can be stuck together. I have had this condition for years. I wet a face cloth with warm water and wipe my eyelids. Voila! I’m good for the day. It’s just a minor nuisance to me.