My Portfolio at the End of June 2022


This month I’ve tried out some new ways of looking at our progress, and I hope that you find them useful.

As usual, I am figuring from the last weekend of the month. Monday thru Thursday will follow over into July. You can think of this as a four week summary if you prefer.

I don’t remember any other decline as bad as this one, except for 2008. This has been very painful for me, and I’m sure for you too. All my main companies reported good to excellent results, but it didn’t do them any good, they went down with everything else.

However the last six weeks seemed to have leveled out, and my portfolio closes hit the same low FIVE times, within a range of 2.1% from highest to lowest, which I consider within the margin of error with the eight different stocks making up my portfolio each wandering around independently over a period of five weeks! For the curious, those lows were:

**May 11	-64.8% 	or 35.2% of what I started with**
**May 18 	-65.2%	or 34.8% of what I started with**
**May 24 	-65.7%	or 34.3% of what I started with**
**Jun 13 	-66.5%	or 33.5% of what I started with**
**Jun 16	-66.9% 	or 33.1% of what I started with** 

And it bounced each time. To me that meant that there was strong support at that level, and that a lot of buying came in and stopped the decline. I thus just don’t see “another 20% drop” below those lows, that some pessimists kept predicting. I simply don’t believe it’s going to happen.

What is more significant is that the value of my portfolio rose 30% in the last five trading days!!! That’s why you don’t sell out at the bottom! Where are all the trolls this month who were telling us that our SaaS stocks would drop to zero?

[My portfolio closed Friday at 42.9% of what I started with. The low, five trading days before, was 33.1% of what I started with. Now, 42.9 divided by 33.1 = 1.296, or up 29.6% to be exact. For help in visualizing it, think if you started with $331 it grew to $429 and figure it out for yourself.]

That was the last five trading days, but if we look at the last four weeks since my last monthly summary, while the S&P dropped 6%, my “risky” portfolio rose 6%. That’s not what we’ve gotten used to seeing during this sell-off :grinning:. In fact, each of the five indexes I follow was down, and they dropped an average of about 5 percentage points.

Sure, I could be wrong! I know literally nothing about technical analysis. It could be a false bottom. So don’t follow what I am doing. Make your own decisions.

I have learned long ago that sticking with great companies wins out in the end, and beats market timing (looking at a long term chart of the S&P you will see that the horrendous declines of the past look like tiny dips on an ever-rising graph), but living through this decline was awful.

I can’t be sure that it has ended, but I know that our companies have secure recurring revenue, and that they are growing very rapidly, at rates almost never before seen for companies at their scale, and considering these facts really makes our companies seem way oversold to me. But that’s just my opinion.


Here’s a table of the monthly year-to-date progress of my portfolio for 2022.

**End of Jan 		-28.9%**
**End of Feb		-26.6%**
**End of Mar		-29.0%**
**End of Apr		-43.6%**
**End of May		-59.7%**
**Low in Mid June	        -66.9%**
**End of Jun		-57.1%**

My portfolio is still down almost 60% since the beginning of the year. That’s just awful! If you are wondering how I can be so calm about it, look at the next section (Cumulative Results).

For those wondering about the long term results of investing this way.

**2017 – up         84.2%**
**2018 – up         71.4%**
**2019 – up         28.4%**
**2020 – up        233.3%**
**2021 – up         39.6%**
**2022 – down       57.1%    first six months**

Cumulative – up 709.2%

Okay, in spite of the worst sell off you could imagine in our stocks, as bad as 2008 when the economy was really failing, banks were going bankrupt, unemployment hit 10%, etc… my portfolio now has 809% of what I started with five years and five months ago. In the same time the S&P 500 has risen 74.1%. That’s up 74% compared to up 709%! Figure out for yourself which method gets you the best results?


Here are the results year to date:

The S&P 500 (Large Cap)
Closed down 17.9% YTD. (It started the year at 4766 and is now at 3912).

The Russell 2000 (Small and Mid Cap)
Closed down 21.3% YTD. (It started the year at 2245 and is now at 1766).

The IJS ETF (The S&P 600 of Small Cap Value stocks)
Closed down 13.2% YTD. (It started the year at 104.5 and is now at 90.7)

The Dow (Very Large Cap)
Closed down 13.3% YTD. (It started the year at 36338 and is now at 31501).

The Nasdaq (Tech)
Closed down 25.8% (It started the year at 15645 and is now at 11608

These five indexes averaged down 18.3% ytd.

I don’t know of any earnings releases in July


April was an awful month in the market, and I made some changes in my portfolio as well. I took back a 2.3% position in Crowdstrike, feeling it had a huge tailwind with all the worries about hacking. I also took a 7.2% position in MongoDB, feeling that Atlas was finally coming into its own and revenue growth would continue to rise. I took a 1% position in Upstart, but couldn’t manage to hold on to it, feeling I had no way to predict what the numbers would be, which was so completely different from my other positions. It may do just wonderfully, and I hope it does for all the board members who are still in it, but after a couple of weeks I sold it back to add to Mongo. I trimmed more of Monday than anything else to buy the Mongo, with probably Snowflake in 2nd place, but these are still 9.4% and 10.8% positions. I probably trimmed the Monday for cash because most of my other companies are dominant in their fields but Monday, although growing very fast, has lots of would-be peers.

May. I still have the positions in Crowd and Mongo that I took in April, and the size of my Crowd position has grown quite a bit. I sold out of my Monday a week before earnings, but now have taken back a small piece, which is too small (less than 2%) to really call it a “position.” In other words, I still have eight of the nine positions I had at the end of April, and if you want to call my small piece of Monday a position too, I still have all nine.

June. This month I sold out of Zscaler and built up what had been my three smallest positions. I added quite a bit to Crowdstrike, less, but still significant amounts into Mongo, and Monday. I also added small amounts to Cloudflare and Sentinel. I sold out of Zscaler because: I was concerned about its very long sales cycle, and because it seemed to be getting more competition from Palo Alto and Cloudflare, and also because, while companies like Datadog, Crowd, Cloudflare and Sentinel seem to be innovating like mad, Zscaler seemed happy to stay the successful “rut” that it was in. Add in that billings growth came in considerably below expectations for the last two quarters, and I decided to exit. It may do very well but I just had better places for my money. I’m happy with the changes I’ve made.

Please remember that I could change my mind about any one or more of my positions tomorrow, depending on new information or other factors, and I may not do another update until the end of next month. Make your own decisions. Don’t just follow mine. I make mistakes at times! Guaranteed!


Here’s how my current positions have done so far in 2022. I’ve arranged them in order of percentage gain. As always, I’ve used the start of the year price for stocks I’ve been in all year, and my initial buy price for stocks I’ve added during the year. I tend to keep buying as the price rises, so my average price is almost always higher than my starting price.

Please remember that these starting prices are from the beginning of 2022, and NOT from when I originally bought them if I bought them in earlier years. (For instance, I bought Cloudflare in July of 2020 at $34.97, but it’s listed below as starting at $131.50, because that was its price at the start of this year)

**Monday from 107.81 to 122.36		up	     13.5%  New in May**
**Crowd from 231.39 to 184.99		down         20.1%   New in Apr** 
**Mongo from 387.16 to 303.09		down 	     21.7%   New in Apr**
**DataDog from 178.11 to 107.48    	down	     39.7%** 
**Bill from 226.25 to 130.48		down	     42.3%   New in Feb**
**Sentinel from 50.49 to 26.49		down	     47.5%**
**Snowflake from 338.75 to 151.53	        down	     55.3%**
**Cloudflare from 131.50 to 51.84	        down	     60.6%**


How much our stocks were down ytd (the list above) is a really ugly picture, but let’s look at how much each is up from its sell-off low, from its low since this decline started. It’s pretty WOW!!!

**BILL, from $89.9 to $130.5		up      45.2%	!!!**
**CRWD, from $130.0 to $184.99	        up      42.3% 	!!!** 
**S, from $18.64 to $26.49		up      42.1%	!!!**
**MDB, from $213.4 to $303.1		up      42.0%	!!!**
**MNDY, from $87.05 to $122.36	        up      40.6%	!!!**
**SNOW from $110.3 to $151.53	        up      37.4%	!!**
**NET, from $38.96 to $51.84		up      33.1%	!!**
**DDOG, from $81.1 to $107.5		up      32.6%	!!**

That is a pretty awesome list. Just look at it! Most of my companies are up between 40% and 45% since their lows!!! Weren’t the trolls telling us that they were going to keep falling pretty much forever?

Granted, they have only gone back up a small part of what they have fallen, and they still have a long way to go, but with all the talk of “It’s going down! It’s going down!” it’s easy to lose sight of “Wait a minute, it’s quit going down. It has turned around and started up.”

Maybe our powerful SaaS companies are silently slipping back into favor. After all, the averages were still descending 5% or so this month while our companies are way off their lows, and were up 6% for the month. That’s not what we are used to seeing during this sell-off. Perhaps it’s starting to sink in that if there is a recession, the business of a SaaS company won’t get killed to the same extent as the business of a traditional company. In fact it probably still be growing, even if not quite as fast.

But who knows? I could be totally wrong and everything could turn around on Monday. I’m sure the Market Bear will make further attempts to push our stocks down. We’ll just have to see what happens.


Having sold Zscaler and built up Monday into a respectable small position, I now have eight positions total, which is a comfortable number for me. Here they are in order of position size, and bunched by size groups.


**Datadog			18.8%**

**Snowflake		16.6%**
**Bill			16.0%**
**Sentinel		15.2%**
**Crowdstrike		14.6%**
**Cloudflare		13.5%**

**Mongo			 8.1%**

**Monday			 5.1%**


Please note that when I discuss company results, I almost always use the adjusted values that the companies give.

Last month I tried a different format, a summary of how I think about each company. I received a lot of positive feedback about the new format and no negative feedback, so I’ll stick with it.

I sometimes mention what I might do about each position, but DON’T just follow me. Make your own decisions. I may change my mind tomorrow and probably not mention it for a month. And besides, I don’t understand anything about the tech.

Agreements or disagreements with what I think about the companies, are of course welcome on the board if you include some reasons and it’s not just a one-liner.

Growing like mad.
Made great acquisitions which have been jet propelling it.
80% gross margins.
Not profitable but just below break-even and spending more to get more customers
FCF positive $23 million, FCF margin was 14%
Down 63% from its high of approx $350, but up 45% from its sell-off low of $89.90
NRR was 125% at Jun 2021 fiscal year
Strong guidance and very enthusiastic
Alliances with (a subsidiary of the American Institute of CPAs), and with Bank of America, and with 85% of top 100 CPA firms, seems a considerable moat.
It seems like an excellent company, and I was thinking of just holding as is, but it’s not pure SaaS, and may be hit more in a recession, so I brought my 17.3% position down a little bit to 16.0% .

Solid company growing revenue in the high 40’s to mid 50’s range very consistently for 13 quarters (or something like that).
gross margins of 79%
Not really profitable or desiring to be but right above break-even. Idealistic about saving the cloud.
FCF quite negative last quarter but they say it was largely because of a one time tax payment
Down 77% from its high of approx $222, but up 33% from its sell-off low of $38.96
Higher capex than others because it has to build and service all its world-wide endpoints, etc
Very innovative and putting out new products like mad, certainly faster than any other company I know.
Made a big acquisition for email security.
Moving rapidly into security and competing with Zscaler and PaloAlto in Zero Trust.
This is from their announcement a week ago: Cloudflare One provides a comprehensive Zero Trust SASE solution that is built natively into Cloudflare’s global network, spanning more than 270 cities in over 100 countries. This deeply integrated approach ensures a simple deployment in just a few clicks, lightning fast performance wherever users are, and robust security across endpoints, networks, and email.
They announced that they also equipped their partners to deliver the Zero Trust solution.
Also moving rapidly into data storage, processing, and distribution. I can’t resist including a little quote from Software Stack Investing (which I certainly advise subscribing to):
While Cloudflare has already been a leader in building out compute capabilities across their edge network of data centers, the progress in data services has been a welcome surprise. A year ago, I wouldn’t have considered Cloudflare to be a data company. Yet, if we fast forward 5 years, it could become one of the larger providers of data services. Granted, it won’t replace large, centralized database solutions that run heavy analytics and ML workloads, but there is a growing demand with similar potential for facilitating the transmission, in-flight processing, and distribution, of data across the globe. Use cases in IoT data processing, real-time user collaboration, and data transmission across clouds, would benefit from Cloudflare’s global network of data centers, distributed compute and localized storage. Even the hyperscalers cannot deliver compute and data storage in a serverless, multi-tenant fashion from 270+ data centers in parallel. It puts compute and data storage within 50ms transit to 95% of the world’s population…They are already landing deals for these capabilities with customers like Meta and Atlassian.
Net Retention Rate (NRR) 127% and rising.
Very enthusiastic, and doing what it does very, very, well
So its mixed picture is definitely improving: growing revenue slower than others but very steadily, very innovative, high valuation, higher capex than others, no desire to be profitable any time soon, negative FCF, Net Retention Rate steadily rising, rapidly and strongly moving into new fields with new products, especially Zero Trust security, and data services, etc, etc.
I’ve added this month and it’s now an 13.5% position in spite of being down a little this month after a big dive while most of my stocks were up.

I thought that they reported an excellent quarter
Growing subscription revenue at 64% and probably slowing but dominant in its field and quite profitable.
Total subscription customers were up 57% yoy
Subscription gross margin was 79%
Down only 38.5% from its high of approx $301, but that’s partly because it didn’t go up like the others in 2021. It is, however, up 42% from its sell-off low of $130.
Op cash flow margin was 44% of revenue
Free cash flow margin was 32% of revenue
Net profit margin was 15%
They are thus very profitable, and increasingly so.
Got Impact Level 4 Authorization from the US Defense Information Systems Agancy and received German Federal Office for Information Security Approval. In June it announced General Availability of Falcon Identity Threat Protection for U.S. Public Sector Organizations requiring FedRAMP Moderate or IL-4 authorization
A strategic partnership with Mandiant to benefit joint customers, and expanded the partnership with Cloudflare with technology integrations.
They also announced Crowd Asset Graph, Humio for Falcon, Graph Visualization, new Partners, and a host of minor products and updates.
While I’ve tried to keep this short, I can’t resist a quote (slightly edited) from Morningstar just after earnings. Here it is Revenue grew by 61%, with subscription revenue up by 64%. ARR increased by 61% compared with the prior year, which we believe provides investors with solid insight into strong demand. Subscription customer count expanded by 57% year over year to 17,945, and we believe the company is still in the early stages of gaining mass adoption as organizations migrate away from legacy endpoint providers. Showing the power of the platform approach, customers who have purchased at least four modules made up 71% of its base, and those with at least six modules made up 35%, at the end of the quarter.
It’s grown to a 14.6% position from 9.7% last month. .

Grew at 84% and 83% the last two quarters
Gross margins 80%
Very profitable: trailing EPS is 66 cents, with 24 cents last quarter.
Adj Operating margin was 23%!
Op Cash Flow Margin was 40%!
FCF Margin was 33% and 36%! last two quarters
Dominant in its field.
Down 46% from its Nov high of approx $200, but up 32.5% from its sell-off low of $81.10
NRR over 130
Moving into security in a big way and succesfully.
Analysts called results stupendus, terrific. CEO very enthused.
In June they announced monitoring and security for Kubernetes
They also announced Observability Pipelines.
They also launched Audit Trail
An 18.8% position and I have no plans to reduce it.

Another mixed picture.
Down about 73% from high of approx $450, but that was a one-day spike. Really more like down 69%, which is still a lot. However it is up 40.6% from its sell-off low of $87.05
Enormous revenue growth rate of 91% was up from 85% growth a year ago, but actually down from 95% yoy growth in the previous quarter.
Sequential revenue growth of 14% was excellent for the first quarter, which seems to be seasonally low for all our companies.
Their London/European office, which just opened in November, has now moved to a much larger office to accommodate rapidly increasing business.
They are spending to get every customer they can, and they thus still have negative operating income and net income.
Net Retention Rate is fine at 135% for companies with over 10 seats, and 150% for companies with spend of over $50k. (Monday often lands with just one or two teams in a customer and expands from there).
Growing number of customers over $50k very rapidly (by 200% yoy)!
Op cash flow and FCF both turned positive last quarter.
In June they launched a monetization solution for the Monday apps marketplace. The new marketplace monetization solution will give developers and partners the ability to integrate and manage app payments directly within the Work OS, and let all users manage multiple payments and subscriptions from their existing Monday account.
Expectations are low because they seem less mission critical than our other companies in a recession. However, like Datadog, the cost of their service seems trivially low compared to the benefits and cost savings of using it.
They have a lower valuation than our other companies, but they do have lots of competitors, and the other companies in the field have never succeeded in turning sales into profitability.
My position is just 5.1%, up from 1.9% at the end of May, and I’m slowly and cautiously adding to it.

Growing revenue at 55% and accelerating every quarter because of Atlas growing faster than the legacy part of business, and Atlas is now almost 60% of revenue
Gross margins were 74%
Had been “open source, “ which I considered a negative as an investor, but is less open source now that it had to patent/copyright to stop AWS from copying it, and now that Atlas is growing so fast, however I was appalled that they decided to make their new product open source (see below)
Almost profitable with Adj Net Inc -2% up from -12%
Op Cash Flow of $22 million
FCF of $17 million, up from a loss of $21 million a year ago. Only 6% FCF margin but on its way!
Dominant in their field.
In June they released Queryable Encryption to encrypt data during the time it’s being queryed. However, they are doing it open source which to me is idiocy. It means everyone who wants to, and is able, can copy it! That seems an insane way to run a business. To me, anyway!!!
Down 49% from its November high of approx $592, but up 42% from its sell-off low of $213.40.
I don’t have their NRR but Atlas NRR is probably very high (150 or so)
I had built my position to 11%, but I cut it back to 8.1% after seeing how they are still wedded to open source ideology.

Mixed picture:
ARR was “only” up 110%, “decelerating” if you want to feel bad about up 110%.
Revenue grew at “only” 109%… BUT
Gross margin was up 15 points to 68% from 53% a year ago, and was up 5 points from 63% sequentially
Op margins are very negative at -73% last quarter because they are spending like mad on growth (improved from -127%, but still).
Operating Cash Flow and FCF margins are terribly negative.
NRR was a record 131%, improved from 124% a year ago, and from 129% sequentially.
Cloud security is their new field and has grown to 20% of their business from practically nothing a year ago. Cloud security revenue was up 50% SEQUENTIALLY this quarter.
Endpoint security was their main business and they are adding one thing after another (like Cloud and Identity, etc), but Endpoint is still growing like mad too, as is everything else. This company is growing incredibly fast.
Stock is down 66.5% from its high of approx $79, but up 42% from its sell-off low of $18.64.
New alliances and acquisitions including an integration with Okta just announced this quarter.
Growing customers over $100k by roughly 110% yoy, and total customers by 55% (rate of growth is down from last quarter, but still growing at rates most companies can’t even dream of)
Great tailwind of worries about breaches with the Ukraine war
Made a huge increase in annual guidance, bringing it up to just under 100% again (with three more quarters to raise in), but it’s hard to evaluate as they will be including Attivo from now on. All in all you can say that they will be reporting annual revenue growth probably over 110%, which is enormous, but organic growth about high 90’s or about 100%, as a piece of revenue will be from the acquisition.
It was a 13.1% position and I thought about trimming it, but after reading the conference call I added a little instead. It’s now a 15.2% position, which may be too large.

Down 63% from its high of appox $408, but up 37% from its sell-off low of $110.30.
Another mixed picture:
Gross margin is 75%.
Dominant in its field but potential competitors arising.
Very rapid revenue growth. It was over 100%, but this quarter the growth rate was cut to 85% by allowing faster computing by customers without raising prices. (They warned us about this last quarter). Also some minor usage cut back by consumer facing companies.
Very high NRR (in the 170%’s), but that will be coming down too.
Share price and valuation are both way down from their heights. Heck, its share price is down to where Warren Buffet bought it at the IPO, and it has MUCH more revenue, RPO, FCF, etc, now than it did back then .
New partnerships with AWS, Dell, Stripe, etc
Setting up vertical silos for data sharing (healthcare, retail, finance, etc).
Moving into new international markets
Taking advantage of the need for security monitoring with CyberSecurity Workload, which serves as a platform for the data from companies who want to do their own security analysis, or to hire one of Snow’s partners to do it. Snow gets more data storage, and more data analysis, on their system, without the cost and headache of creating their own security analysis. The customer benefits from cheaper and easier.
New products for new fields. A new Cloud Native Application Protection Platform to allow developers to develop, deploy and monetize applications, all on Snowflake.
Introduced UniStore and Hybrid Tables to allow analyzing transactional SQL data on Snow.
They were ranked first in JP Morgan’s survey of where CIO’s planned to spend additional funds in 2022 (ahead of Microsoft, Google cloud, and Crowdstrike).
Buying back employee RSUs to prevent dilution, which is already under 1% per year.
Very enthusiastic.
Going to become a behemoth of a company, long term. It already IS becoming a behemoth :grinning:!
Usage based, so it will be hit more in a recesion than a SaaS company who gets the same subscription revenue come what may.
Overall, it’s more a positive picture. It’s a 16.4% position. I have no intention of trimming it at present.

Rate of revenue growth accelerated to 63% but has now levelled off at 63% and may start declining.
Billings, which the company had emphasized, has fallen off sharply the last two quarters.
Definitely profitable.
Trailing EPS is 57 cents per share.
Op cash flow was 30% last year. FCF was 21%.
FCF last 12 months was $184 million
Tailwind of every company’s need for security with all the breaches.
Said they are feeling no macro effects.
Competes with PaloAlto who is a tough competitor, and now Cloudflare.
Putting it all together: I was concerned about its very long sales cycle, and because it seemed to be getting more effective competition from Palo Alto and now Cloudflare (with a much, much, shorter sales cycle), and also because, while companies like Datadog, Crowd, Cloudflare and Sentinel seem to be innovating like mad, and they come out with great new products and improvements at a rapid pace, Zscaler rarely announced significant new products and seemed happy to stay in the successful rut that it was in. Add in that billings growth was substantially below reasonable expectations the past two quarters, and I decided to exit. It may do very well but I just had better places for my money.


We started our board in the beginning of 2014, more than eight years ago. Until just a few months ago we had NEVER, EVER, had a post with more recs than the high 300’s. Yet earlier this year I had a ordinary post, just a post about what I had done about a stock, that had over 660 recs. That is crazy!

Our success has flooded us with new posters and readers (that’s you, most likely), so you can see why we have to limit our posts to meaningful ones to avoid flooding the board and destroying it. I may at times seem arbitrary in deleting posts but that’s why it’s done and why it’s necessary.

Thanks for your cooperation

Let me remind you first, that I have NO IDEA what our stocks will do next month. I’m terrible on predictions. But I know that the businesses of our companies will do just fine for the most part.

I feel that my portfolio is made up of a bunch of great companies. But that’s just my opinion, and I can’t say often enough that I’m not a techie and I don’t really understand what most of them actually do at all ! I just know what great results look like. I figure that if their customers clearly like them and keep buying their products in hugely increasing amounts, they must have something going for them and, as I’ve often said, I follow the money, the results. And I listen to smart people about the prospects of these companies.

When I take a regular position in a stock, it’s always with the idea of holding it indefinitely, or as long as circumstances seem appropriate, and never with a price goal or with the idea of trying to make a few points and selling. I do, of course, eventually exit. Sometimes it’s after months, and sometimes after years, but I’m talking about what my intention is when I buy.

I do sometimes take a tiny position in a company to put it on my radar and get me to learn more about it. I’m not trying to trade it and make money on it, I’m just trying to decide if I want to keep it long term. If I do try out a stock in a small position and later decide that it’s not what I want, I sell it without hesitation, and I really don’t care whether I gain a dollar or lose one. I just sell out to put the money somewhere better. If I decide to keep it, I add to my position and build it into a regular position.

You should never try to just follow what I’m doing without making up your own mind about a stock. First of all, you may have a completely different financial picture than I have. Different age, different income, different assets, different debts, different expenses, different financial and family responsibilities, etc.

Besides, in these monthly summaries I’m giving you a static picture of where I am currently, but I may change my mind about a position during the month. In fact, I not infrequently do, and I make changes in the position. I usually don’t announce these changes until the end of the month, and if I’m busy or have some personal emergency I might not announce them even then. And besides, I sometimes make mistakes, even big ones! Don’t just follow me blindly! I’m an old guy and won’t be around forever. The key is to learn how to do this for yourself.

Since I began in 1989, my entire portfolio has grown enormously. If you are new to the board and want to find out how I did it, and how you can try to do it yourself, I’d suggest you read the Knowledgebase, which is a compilation of my “words of wisdom”, and definitely worth reading (a couple of times) if you haven’t yet.

A link to the Knowledgebase is at the top of the Announcements panel that is on the right side of every page on this board.

For some additions to the Knowledgebase, bringing it up to date, I’d advise reading several other posts linked to on the panel, especially:

How I Pick a Company to Invest In,
Why My Investing Criteria Have Changed,
Why It Really is Different.
Illogical Investing Fallacies

I hope this has been helpful.



Hey Saul, you might want to check some of these numbers:

Monday from 107.81 to 122.36 up 13.5% New in May
Crowd from 231.39 to 184.99 down 20.1% New in Apr
Mongo from 387.16 to 303.09 down 21.7% New in Apr
DataDog from 178.11 to 107.48 down 39.7%
Bill from 226.25 to 130.48 down 42.3% New in Feb
Sentinel from 50.49 to 26.49 down 47.5%
Snowflake from 338.75 to 151.53 down 55.3%
Cloudflare from 131.50 to 51.84 down 60.6%

MNDY is down almost 60% YTD from around 300 beginning of the year. MDB was at 529 on Dec 31st and is down around 38% YTD.


Hey Saul, you might want to check some of these numbers:

Monday from 107.81 to 122.36 up 13.5% New in May
Mongo from 387.16 to 303.09 down 21.7% New in Apr

MNDY is down almost 60% YTD from around 300 beginning of the year. MDB was at 529 on Dec 31st and is down around 38% YTD.

Hi invain,
Sorry about your confusion about that. You didn’t bother to read the explanation at the beginning of the section, where I point out that that’s what Monday has done since I started this position in May. Here’s the explanation again:

Here’s how my current positions have done so far in 2022. I’ve arranged them in order of percentage gain. As always, I’ve used the start of the year price for stocks I’ve been in all year, and my initial buy price for stocks I’ve added during the year.

In my evaluations of the individual stocks, I point out, for instance, that Monday is down 73% from its high, and Mongo is down 49% from its high.



Here’s how my current positions have done so far in 2022. I’ve arranged them in order of percentage gain. As always, I’ve used the start of the year price for stocks I’ve been in all year, and my initial buy price for stocks I’ve added during the year.

By the way, the reason I started doing this was that in the past, say the stock started the year at $100 and was at $130 when I bought it in mid-year, and was now at $140, I didn’t want to post the starting price for the year as if I was claiming all that rise from $100, but I posted the price I bought it at, $130, and only claimed my experience with it.



“In June they (MDB) released Queryable Encryption to encrypt data during the time it’s being queryed. However, they are doing it open source which to me is idiocy.”

Perhaps this is a strategy to gain new customers and dependency. Hopefully they will eventually move this away from open source such as they did with Atlas.

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“I had built my position to 11%, but I cut it back to 8.1% after seeing how they are still wedded to open source ideology.”

I’d actually do the opposite. Look, the core product of MongoDB, the database, itself is open-source, anybody can use it for absolutely free (but then they have to scale, manage it themselves). There is a very good chance that features in an open-source product will also be open-source, especially when they are related to cryptography such as Queryable Encryption. It’s in MongoDB’s interest to open-source the cryptography/algorithm of this feature to get wider crowd and industry experts in open-source community help strengthen it as new threats/bugs are discovered. I have confidence in MDB and Dev to continue to be able to monetize their excellent open-source offering via SaaS.

In today’s world, open-source has tangible benefits even for the for-profit company that creates said open-source software; some of these benefits are explained in this recent Forbes article:…