My resuls for the earnings season so far

My results for the earnings season so far.

First earnings just came in. I’ll add my results as they come in.

INFN ---- 18/11 = 63.6%

Average gain in earnings so far (year-over-year) = 63.6%. And, if you are comparing, the Mar quarter results, for my entire portfolio, were an average gain of 69.85%.

And here’s the 1YPEG information, with results at the time of reporting.

INFN ---- PE is 36.7, TTM earnings growth is 142%, so 1YPEG = 0.26

Average PE so far is 36.7
Average Earnings growth so far is 142%

For comparison, for the March quarter
Average PE was 28.0.
Average TTM earnings growth was 67.8%.

We’re just starting out.

Saul

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Hi Saul, I’m so glad that I took my starter position in INFN earlier in July. Great start for this new holding in my opinion. Probably need to fill this out to a full position.

All the best, Brian

It’s looking an interesting quarter.

Pretty much all of my stocks have printed expectation beating results on some if not all metrics and produced some massive spike ups in down markets. On the other hand that is set against the back drop of some big misses by the majors (Apple, IBM etc).

It will be a test of nerves to see whether our investments can swim against the current or get dragged backwards.

(In case it helps anyone else keep track in this results blizzard - results in for me so far include: INFN, LOGM, XRS, KKR, FTNT, INBK, CHKP, CY, SWKS & ALTR).

Several announcers as well as peers are now pushing all time highs - particularly in the cyber security and networking spaces.

Unfortunately I also have some stocks that continue to drop which is dragging down my portfolio. (These are usually are non Saul-compliant picks, so it doesn’t surprise me that Saul can’t figure out why all portfolios and averages aren’t up 30% for the year).

Ant

My results for the earnings season so far.

My second and third earnings just came in. Here are the totals up to now:

INFN ---- 18/11 = 63.6%
SWKS —134/83 = 61.4%
INBK ----50/22 =127.3%

Average gain in earnings so far (year-over-year) = 84.1%. And, if you are comparing, the Mar quarter results, for my entire portfolio, were an average gain of 69.85%.

And here’s the 1YPEG information, with results at the time of reporting.

INFN ---- PE was 36.7, TTM earnings growth is 142%, so 1YPEG = 0.26
SWKS ---- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 76.4%, so 1YPEG = 0.28
INBK ---- PE was 17.8, TTM earnings growth is 123%, so 1YPEG = 0.14

Average PE so far was 25.2
Average Earnings growth so far is 114%

That would give a 1YPEG for the portfolio so far of 25.2 divided by 114, which equals 0.22. I love it when some people refer to my portfolio as a risky portfolio. What are they thinking???

For comparison, for the March quarter
Average PE was 28.0.
Average TTM earnings growth was 67.8%.

We’re just starting out.

Saul

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I love it when some people refer to my portfolio as a risky portfolio. What are they thinking???

They are confusing volatility with risk. Your portfolio is volatile, more so than the overall market. (And since the overall market averages upwards, yours averages up even higher.)

Note that for people with a short time horizon, volatility is risky (they can’t withstand a large downward move, even if later upward moves far more than make up for it).

-Mark

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My results for the earnings season so far.

My fourth earnings report just came in. Here are the totals up to now:

INFN ---- 18/11 = 63.6%
SWKS —134/83 = 61.4%
INBK ----50/22 =127.3%
SNCR — 56/41 = 36.6%

Average gain in earnings so far (year-over-year) = 72.2%. And, if you are comparing, the Mar quarter results, for my entire portfolio, were an average gain of 69.85%.

And here’s the 1YPEG information, with results at the time of reporting.

INFN ---- PE was 36.7, TTM earnings growth is 142%, so 1YPEG was 0.26
SWKS ---- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 76.4%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
INBK ---- PE was 17.8, TTM earnings growth is 123%, so 1YPEG was 0.14
SNCR ---- PE was 21.7, TTM earnings growth is 31.6%, so 1YPEG was 0.68

Average PE so far is 24.3
Average Earnings growth so far is 93.4%

That would give a 1YPEG for the portfolio so far of 24.3 divided by 93.4, which equals 0.26.

For comparison, for the March quarter
Average PE was 28.0.
Average TTM earnings growth was 67.8%.

We have a bunch more to come, including SKX after the market.

I hope this is interesting for some people at least.

Saul

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And here’s the 1YPEG information, with results at the time of reporting.

INFN ---- PE was 36.7, TTM earnings growth is 142%, so 1YPEG was 0.26
SWKS ---- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 76.4%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
INBK ---- PE was 17.8, TTM earnings growth is 123%, so 1YPEG was 0.14

SNCR ---- PE was 21.7, TTM earnings growth is 31.6%, so 1YPEG was 0.68

Saul,
You better get rid of that dog SNCR while you can! TTM of only 32% and a 1YPET of .7?

-FrickNSarcasm

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Anyone have insight into SWKS decline?

Thanks,

andy

China.

Fear of decreased demand for smart phones after market crash there which is ongoing. Think of AAPL after our crash, their growth went away all of a sudden for a while, now it is back.

A large share of phones are manufactured in China, but many may be sold elsewhere. Chinese people buy them too though. So demand from them will likely be down as many could be financially crippled as the stock market was way up. Not sure how it will affect demand outside China, unless that market bleeds into others.

So we have to decide what we think about the market crash and it’s affect on demand and markets.

Gator

China

Here is an excerpt of something I posted over on the Pro boards a few days ago. I didn’t post it here because we’ve already had a lot of discussion about Skyworks and China (including the mentioned MarketWatch article), so I didn’t think it’d add too much. But since the topic has been raised again…

There’s even a MarketWatch article entitled “Top 10 S&P 500 companies most exposed to China” and the winner is … drum roll… Skyworks with 67% of sales!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/top-10-sp-companies-most-ex…

Well if you’re just looking at the financials with zero context, that’s true. The latest annual report shows, on page 138 under Geographic Information, that net revenue from China is $1,574.4 of 2,291.5 total.

But right underneath that table is this little paragraph:

The Company’s revenues by geography do not necessarily correlate to end market demand by region. For example, if the Company sells a product to a distributor in Taiwan, the sale is reflected within the Taiwan line item above; however, that distributor, in turn, may sell the product to an end customer in a different geography.

So in other words, any device that is made or assembled in China and then exported globally is going to show up as a China sale. So a portion of those sales are not impacted directly by the economy in China at all.

But what about phones sold in China itself? This is what CFO Palette said on the most recent conference call:

Certainly there’s been well-reported choppiness I would say in that market, but most of it has really been 2G and 3G ramp downs as 4G accelerates. And if you look at 4G, that’s the opportunity that we’re excited about. We have a tremendous content gain there. We talked about that already today. But in addition to the content gain, which could be $2, $3, $4 per phone, we’re also seeing units start to look a little bit better through China just in the last month of June. In the full quarter of June, we saw 60 million net adds on the 4G cycle, so we feel good about that continuing through 2015, hopefully hitting about a 250 million unit number. Now, some of that business is won through local brands that we mentioned and some of it we benefit with global tier 1s that sell into China. So that’s working out pretty well for us. A little bit of a slow start but we see it picking up in the second half.

This conference call was just last week, well after the turmoil began in the Chinese equity markets. And management is saying that, while there was some choppiness in the quarter just reported (which was a great quarter) things are going well now and they expect them to continue to improve through the second half of 2015. This lines up pretty well with what Cook said in the Apple conference call (bolding mine):

the stock market participation among Chinese household is fairly narrow. And the stock ownership is very concentrated in a few people who put what appears to be a smaller portion of their wealth in the market than we might. And so I think generally this has been, at least as we see it, maybe it’s not true for other businesses, that this worry is probably overstated. And so we’re not changing anything. We have the pedal to the metal on getting to 40 stores mid next year. As we had talked about before, we’re continuing to expand the indirect channel as well.

As you point out, and I think this is a major point that many people miss, the LTE penetration in China is only at 12%. And China doesn’t possess the level of fiber that some other countries do, and so in order to get the great video performance, et cetera, raising that penetration is really great. I think that really plays to an incredible smartphone future there.

That last paragraph is exactly what SWKS management is talking about: the upgrade cycle to 4G.

Could both companies be terribly wrong? Sure, and we mitigate that risk through sensible allocation. But if there is an impact, it seems likely to be very short-term in nature.

And finally, remember that mobile is just one segment for Skyworks (albeit its largest): it’s rapidly expanding into other verticals. Here’s another quote from CFO Palette (bolding mine):

I’m really thrilled with the development team’s performance in these vertical markets and our ability to put, in many cases, new associates on the street to support our customers’ architectures as we learn what it takes to win in the home, in the automobile, on the factory floor, in the hospital. That business just is doing great and it turns out that the technology footprint we’ve deployed in mobile is exactly what these markets require, and our team is just doing a terrific job I think. Not perfect, but a terrific job of lining those customers up, understanding their system level needs, and then executing.

So not only is SWKS expanding into these verticals, but it’s finding that its expertise and capability that has been so successful in mobile can be directly leveraged to propel it into many of these verticals.

All in all, I think the future looks pretty bright for Skyworks, both in the near term with mobile (perhaps with a little choppiness) and the long-term as it continues to gain traction in these additional verticals and IoT generally.

Just my opinion, of course!

Neil
Long SWKS

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This is what I’ve seen:
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2670695-skyworks-minus-3_9-perc…

QRVO guided lower than expected. Does anyone know the relationship between SWKS and QRVO? Are they direct competitors, or do they provide different parts to the same phones?

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Anyone have insight into SWKS decline?
They weren’t alone and if anything got off lightly. Cypress, Invensense and Synaptics all got hit even harder. It was a semicon wide affair.
Ant

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My results for the earnings season so far.

SKX reported last evening. Here are the totals up to now:

INFN ---- 18/11 = 63.6%
SWKS —134/83 = 61.4%
INBK ----50/22 =127.3%
SNCR — 56/41 = 36.6%
SXK -----155/68 = 127.9%

Average gain in earnings so far (year-over-year) = 83.3%. If you are comparing, the Mar quarter results for my entire portfolio were an average earnings gain of 69.8%.

And here’s the 1YPEG information, with results at the time of reporting.

INFN ---- PE was 36.7, TTM earnings growth is 142%, so 1YPEG was 0.26
SWKS ---- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 76.4%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
INBK ---- PE was 17.8, TTM earnings growth is 123%, so 1YPEG was 0.14
SNCR ---- PE was 21.7, TTM earnings growth is 31.6%, so 1YPEG was 0.68
SKX ----- PE was 29.5, TTM earnings growth is 107%, so 1YPEG was 0.28

Average PE so far is 25.4
Average Earnings growth so far is 96.1%

That would give a 1YPEG for the portfolio so far of 25.4 divided by 96.1, which equals 0.26.

For comparison, for the March quarter
Average PE was 28.0.
Average TTM earnings growth was 67.8%.

BOFI will report today.

Saul

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Hey Saul,
Just wondering where our numbers are different for SKX. I get a TTM growth of 94.29%. This is what I have for earnings from Skecher’s site:
2015 2014
1.55 0.68
1.10 0.61
0.43 0.28
1.00 0.53

Do you have different earnings numbers? I know sometimes it’s easy to come up with different numbers depending on GAAP vs Non-GAAP, just not sure where I’m off. Thanks.

Chad

Hey Saul, Just wondering where our numbers are different for SKX. I get a TTM growth of 94.29%.

Hey Chad, for the Oct quarter they wrote:

(Our EPS was negatively impacted by foreign currency exchange losses of 5 cents per share, as well as 8 cents per share attributable to warehousing costs related to completing the first phase of the automation upgrade of the our European Distribution Facility and transitioning from a third-party warehouse to a Company-owned facility in Chile. In total, these expenses reduced EPS by 13 cents during the quarter.) – I added the 13 cents back. (I usually take out foreign exchange gains or losses as they don’t reflect how the actual business is going.

As for the one-time warehouse costs, in the conference call they were asked extensively about it. While changing the warehouse in Chile to in-house, they had to keep both of the warehouses open for most of the quarter while changing over, and pay salaries in both. That was all finished just before the end of the quarter.

As for the automation of the plant in Belgium, they had to close part of the plant while they were doing it, and then run three shifts, in the other part, with lots of overtime, to keep up with demand and they had to outsource part of the shipping as I remember.

I thought that all of these are clearly costs that don’t reflect the ongoing business and I felt comfortable in eliminating all of them and accepting the company’s 13 cent estimate for the whole thing, which doesn’t seem excessive.

In the Jan quarter I similarly added back the 14 cents they referenced that quarter…

In the March quarter I DIDN"T add anything back although they stated Despite headwinds including the stronger U.S. dollar, the slowdown at the west coast ports and unseasonably cold weather in certain key markets and less efficient operations than originally anticipated at our European distribution center due to the transition to a new automated systems, we nevertheless achieved the new quarterly sales record and maintained an 11.5% operating margin and strong gross margins of 43.3%. I figured this was just normal business stuff.

Hope that helps. Remember, these are just the figures I use for MY OWN figuring. You don’t have to accept them or use them. I just use them to get an idea how their business itself is actually doing. Apparently it gave me a pretty good view. :wink:

Saul

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My results for the earnings season so far.

BOFI reported. Here are the totals up to now:

INFN ---- 18/11 = 63.6%
SWKS —134/83 = 61.4%
INBK ----50/22 =127.3%
SNCR — 56/41 = 36.6%
SXK -----155/68 = 127.9%
BOFI ---- 154/109 = 41.3%

Average gain in earnings so far (year-over-year) = 76.3%. If you are comparing, the Mar quarter results for my entire portfolio were an average earnings gain of 69.8%.

And here’s the 1YPEG information, with results at the time of reporting.

INFN ---- PE was 36.7, TTM earnings growth is 142%, so 1YPEG was 0.26
SWKS ---- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 76.4%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
INBK ---- PE was 17.8, TTM earnings growth is 123%, so 1YPEG was 0.14
SNCR ---- PE was 21.7, TTM earnings growth is 31.6%, so 1YPEG was 0.68
SKX ----- PE was 29.5, TTM earnings growth is 107%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
BOFI ----- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 41.3%, so 1YPEG was 0.51

Average PE so far is 24.7
Average Earnings growth so far is 87.0%

That would give a 1YPEG for the portfolio so far of 24.7 divided by 87.0, which equals 0.28.

For comparison, for the March quarter
Average PE was 28.0.
Average TTM earnings growth was 67.8%.

This has been a lot of fun so far !!!

Saul

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Saul,

Fun indeed. Fun is also seeing your portfolio up 4% in one day while the market is meandering sideways… and realizing a net YTD gain of 38%.

The addition of SKX is one for which we all owe you big time. Or maybe more accurately your wife!

Fletch’s consistently spot on analysis of BOFI is another.

These kind of days don’t happen very often. Let’s toast a remarkable year made possible by your steady guidance and courageous sharing of several decades of experience and wisdom.

Jim

8 Likes

My results for the earnings season so far.

ABMD and CRTO reported today. CRTO beat on revenue but was disappointing on earnings. ABMD had a huge beat with revenue up more than 50%, but only reported GAAP earnings (20 cents up from a loss). I’ll have to wait until they post their SEC filings to give you adjusted results.

INFN ---- 18/11 = 63.6%
SWKS —134/83 = 61.4%
INBK ----50/22 =127.3%
SNCR — 56/41 = 36.6%
SXK -----155/68 = 127.9%
BOFI ---- 154/109 = 41.3%
CRTO — 15/09 = 66.7%
ABMD — Waiting for adjusted results

Average gain in earnings so far (year-over-year) = 74.9%. If you are comparing, the Mar quarter results for my entire portfolio were an average earnings gain of 69.8%.

And here’s the 1YPEG information, with results at the time of reporting.

INFN ---- PE was 36.7, TTM earnings growth is 142%, so 1YPEG was 0.26
SWKS ---- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 76.4%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
INBK ---- PE was 17.8, TTM earnings growth is 123%, so 1YPEG was 0.14
SNCR ---- PE was 21.7, TTM earnings growth is 31.6%, so 1YPEG was 0.68
SKX ----- PE was 29.5, TTM earnings growth is 107%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
BOFI ----- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 41.3%, so 1YPEG was 0.51
CRTO ----- PE was 44.2, TTM earnings growth is 105%, so 1YPEG was 0.42

Average PE so far is 27.5
Average Earnings growth so far is 89.6%

That would give a 1YPEG for the portfolio so far of 24.7 divided by 87.0, which equals 0.31.

For comparison, for the March quarter
Average PE was 28.0.
Average TTM earnings growth was 67.8%.

EPAM should have results this afternoon.

Saul

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My results for the earnings season so far.

ABMD and CRTO reported early yesterday, and EPAM after the market. CRTO beat on revenue but was disappointing on earnings. EPAM did so-so, not bad, but not very good either. ABMD had a huge beat with revenue up more than 50%, but only reported GAAP earnings (20 cents up from a loss). I’ll have to wait until they post their SEC filings to give you adjusted results.

INFN ---- 18/11 = 63.6%
SWKS —134/83 = 61.4%
INBK ----50/22 =127.3%
SNCR — 56/41 = 36.6%
SXK -----155/68 = 127.9%
BOFI ---- 154/109 = 41.3%
CRTO — 15/09 = 66.7%
EPAM — 64/53 = 20.8%
ABMD — Waiting for adjusted results

Average gain in earnings so far (year-over-year) = 68.1%. If you are comparing, the Mar quarter results for my entire portfolio were an average earnings gain of 69.8%.

And here’s the 1YPEG information, with results at the time of reporting.

INFN ---- PE was 36.7, TTM earnings growth is 142%, so 1YPEG was 0.26
SWKS ---- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 76.4%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
INBK ---- PE was 17.8, TTM earnings growth is 123%, so 1YPEG was 0.14
SNCR ---- PE was 21.7, TTM earnings growth is 31.6%, so 1YPEG was 0.68
SKX ----- PE was 29.5, TTM earnings growth is 107%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
BOFI ----- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 41.3%, so 1YPEG was 0.51
CRTO ----- PE was 44.2, TTM earnings growth is 105%, so 1YPEG was 0.42
EPAM ----- PE was 29.55, TTM earnings growth is 29.3%, so 1YPEG was 1.01

Average PE so far is 27.8
Average Earnings growth so far is 82.1%

That would give a 1YPEG for the portfolio so far of 27.8 divided by 82.1, which equals 0.34.

For comparison, for the March quarter
Average PE was 28.0.
Average TTM earnings growth was 67.8%.

ANET will post tomorrow.
Saul

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My results for the earnings season so far.

I had to wait for ABMD to file their SEC filing which they just did, so I can give it now, as best as I can figure it out. It’s fully taxed this year, and untaxed last year. Please note that I’m not sure of some of my figures on ABMD.

ANET and SWIR also just announced. SWIR announced great comparisons, but we have to take into account that the percent rise next quarter will be much lower, and 1YPEG will rise.

INFN ---- 18/11 = 63.6%
SWKS —134/83 = 61.4%
INBK ----50/22 =127.3%
SNCR — 56/41 = 36.6%
SXK -----155/68 = 127.9%
BOFI ---- 154/109 = 41.3%
CRTO — 15/09 = 66.7%
EPAM — 64/53 = 20.8%
ABMD — 26/06 = 333% (but I’ll max it out at 200%)
ANET — 54/35 = 54%
SWIR — 26/08 = 225% (but I’ll max it out at 200%)

Average gain in earnings so far (year-over-year) = 90.8%. If you are comparing, the Mar quarter results for my entire portfolio were an average earnings gain of 69.8%.

And here’s the 1YPEG information, with results at the time of reporting. Please note that these are from the time of reporting of each company’s earnings, and that I don’t update each one every time.

INFN ---- PE was 36.7, TTM earnings growth is 142%, so 1YPEG was 0.26
SWKS ---- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 76.4%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
INBK ---- PE was 17.8, TTM earnings growth is 123%, so 1YPEG was 0.14
SNCR ---- PE was 21.7, TTM earnings growth is 31.6%, so 1YPEG was 0.68
SKX ----- PE was 29.5, TTM earnings growth is 107%, so 1YPEG was 0.28
BOFI ----- PE was 21.2, TTM earnings growth is 41.3%, so 1YPEG was 0.51
CRTO ----- PE was 44.2, TTM earnings growth is 105%, so 1YPEG was 0.42
EPAM ----- PE was 29.55, TTM earnings growth is 29.3%, so 1YPEG was 1.01
ABMD ----- PE was 60.9, TTM earnings growth is 149%, so 1YPEG was 0.41
ANET ----- PE was 41.4, TTM earnings growth is 77.5%, so 1YPEG was 0.53
SWIR ----- PE was 24.2, TTM earnings growth is 225.8%, so 1YPEG was 0.10

Average PE so far is 31.7
Average Earnings growth so far is 100.8%

That would give a 1YPEG for the portfolio so far of 31.7 divided by 100.8, which equals 0.31.

For comparison, for the March quarter
Average PE was 28.0.
Average TTM earnings growth was 67.8%.

We’re almost finished for the earnings season. Just SEDG and AMBA remain.

Saul

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