Bullish indicators on the $NATGAS (natural gas contracts) charts for the past two weeks.
$NATGAS daily chart shows:
Horizontal support held 3 weeks ago
Close Friday was highest close in four weeks and is above the 20 EMA (green line on my daily charts)
Should we close green on Monday, my bet is that close will be above the 250 EMA and that will alert thousands of T/A traders who will either watchlist this further, or start nibbling on Monday. (Most of us use either $UNG or $BOIL - I go with $BOIL as I am nimble and know very well what a mis-spent bet on a 3x ETF (inverse at that) can do to your capital. But Friday’s close above the 20 EMA has already gotten traders I know alerted.
Europe could face a gap of as much as 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas during the key summer period for refilling its gas storage sites in 2023, the IEA said in new analysis published today, highlighting the need for urgent action by governments to reduce gas consumption amid the global energy crisis.
The new report – Never too early to prepare for next winter: Europe’s gas balance for 2023-2024 – shows that gas storage sites in the European Union are now 95% full – putting them 5% above the 5-year average fill level. But the report cautions that the cushion provided by current storage levels, as well as recent lower gas prices and unusually mild temperatures, should not lead to overly optimistic conclusions about the future.
The process of filling EU gas storage sites this year benefitted from key factors that may well not be repeated in 2023. These include Russian pipeline gas deliveries that, although they were cut sharply during 2022, were close to ‘normal’ levels for much of the first half of the year. Total pipeline supply from Russia to the EU in 2022 is likely to amount to around 60 bcm, but it is highly unlikely that Russia will deliver another 60 bcm of pipeline gas in 2023 – and Russian deliveries to Europe could halt completely.
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