$NATGAS Futures Up +16.27% On News From EU and Russia: Global Long-Term LNG Contracts Are Sold Out Until 2026

I’ll be cutting back on my $BOIL this morning and adding a very tight stop/loss for the remainder:

The global long-term LNG contracts before 2026 are sold out, top importer Japan says, amid heated competition for the fuel as Europe seeks to replace Russian pipeline gas supply.

The estimate of sold-out LNG deals emerged from a survey of Japanese companies conducted by the local trade ministry and cited by Bloomberg.

High spot LNG prices have priced out many Asian buyers this year as Europe has been bidding for supply and has become the primary destination of spot LNG supply out of the United States. At the same time, market volatility and uncertainties, and concerns about energy security, have prompted a growing number of buyers to seek long-term contracts.

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:pushpin: Gazprom says it could curb natural gas flows through Ukraine as of next Monday.

:pushpin: Additional volume reduction would come just as temperatures in Europe dipped to seasonal or below-seasonal levels.

:pushpin: Europe’s benchmark gas prices rose by 2% after Gazprom’s announcement on Tuesday.

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“Competition between Europe and Asia for limited LNG will be intense until a new supply wave arrives after 2026. Prices will inevitably remain elevated until then.”

Japan, for its part, is a major LNG importer and is set to regain its status as the world’s largest LNG importer this year amid an unprecedented slump in Chinese LNG demand and imports.

Last year, China beat Japan to become—for the first time—the world’s largest importer of LNG. This year, China is set to give the ‘top importer’ title back to Japan amid lackluster Chinese demand due to the snap Covid lockdowns that have slowed industrial demand and economic growth.

Seems like the NG news is very bullish, but you’re cutting back on your position?

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I’m in $BOIL, have been averaging up and down.

I’ll probably sell off 20-40% early today. Let the remainder ride. See what’s up on the European News.

Our markets closed tomorrow, but, this news of shelling in Kyiv by Russia killing a 2 year old child in a maternity hospital may elicit more of a nat gas mess this weekend.

The one point I’m focused on trading Nat Gas going forward: knowledge that the long term contracts have all been snapped up and the next available are the 2026s. That’s most definitely bullish for $NATGAS long term.

So, this will be one of my fave sectors to trade regularly going frorward. On trades such as this, I’ll not share every add or sell or stop/loss, and by this, I mean, the 3x inverse/long ETFs are very dangerous and can rip a novice’s bank account to 0.

I’ll be looking over some UNG type LEAPS (if there are such things) later today.

This might develop into a big win similar to Semiconductors last winter about this time. Everything semiconductor was short in the supply chain. Everybody and their brother (I raise my hand here) bought Semiconductor calls and lucky for me I got out with want to say about a 200% win before the floor inexplicably dropped out from underneath.

Same could happen here. I’m seeing where Northern Africa (Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, etc.) are all going to drill for more oil and natural gas to sell to the EU. If that happens, Russia can stop the flow of Nat Gas all they want, the EU won’t be back as a buyer - unless the Resistance inside Russia takes control of power and makes amends to Ukraine.

So, in this case, I can’t really be 100% of the price of Nat Gas, but, going forward, I know Nat Gas will play heavily into the world economy, as Putin is destroying infrastucture inside Ukraine, and any rebuild there will require enormous amounts of energy.

So, I sold all my $BOIL. I was hoping to have made bigger double digit gains, but, I made enough that I could send some $$$ to twelve divvy payers I invest in every week.

Time for some Netflix, a sammich, and a long nap. Will get back up late afternoon to see what new trades I might enter.

And I just closed a successful trade in $ACGL. Might re-enter that one by end of day.

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