Nations DePopulating-Permanent Trend?

[tjscott0]

https://www.statista.com/chart/26634/start-year-of-negative-…
The number of countries experiencing more deaths than births in a given year is steadily increasing. An analysis of U.N. data by the Federal Institute for Population Research* out of Germany shows that the “natural balance” of births and deaths is declining worldwide, causing aging and even decreasing populations.

Germany was the first country in the world to experience a surplus of deaths. Every year since 1972, fewer people were born there than died. Before 1990, this also started happening in Hungary (1982) and the Czech Republic (1986). By the middle of the current century, however, all countries in Europe, with the exception of Norway and Sweden, are expected to see natural natural population growth turn negative. Populous countries such as Brazil and China are also projected to experience this change before 2050.
Past 2100, most naturally growing countries will be found in Africa, with some also persisting on the Arabian Peninsula, in Oceania and in Central Asia. Sweden is the only European country expected to keep up natural population growth past that date.

*https://www.bib.bund.de/EN/Service/Press/2021/2021-12-09-Mor…

Even though the world population is still growing overall, there are more and more countries in which the number of deaths exceed the number of births within one year.

Already before 1990, some countries, including Germany, had a negative natural balance. “Since then, the number of countries in Europe has grown strongly, and in Japan for example, too, deaths have exceeded births,” explains population researcher Dr. Frank Swiaczny of the BiB. By the middle of this century, all European countries are expected to develop a negative natural balance - with the exception of Norway and Sweden. Globally, populous countries like Brazil and China also belong to this group. And after 2050, many other less developed countries, including India, for example, will face the same challenge.

Of course immigration can change the population balance within a nation. Yesterday I posted that Germany is looking for 400K skilled worker immigrants.

[WendyBG]

The exponential growth of human populations is destroying the Earth’s ecosystems. This was recognized decades ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_population_growth

The period of time when population growth slows, stops and hopefully reverses to a more sustainable population will be uncomfortable. You described this in your posts.

Ultimately, humanity must voluntarily reduce our numbers or the Malthusian disaster will occur.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism

The short-term answer is immigration – redistribution of people from overpopulated areas to areas that need young workers. The long-term answer is universal birth control, especially in areas with fast-growing populations. And innovations in robotics to help care for the older generation which will eventually die off.

Wendy

[OrmontUS]

Education brings an increase in one’s standard of living, which results in a lower birth rate. Low birth rates in industrialized nations requires (in the absence of AI controlled automated industry) high rates of immigration which, in turn, dilutes and frequently causes resentment in the incumbent population.

Some countries, like Dubai, keep immigrants at the servant level and never give them (or their children) citizenship or retirement benefits, but many Western nations allow them (or their decedents) to become citizens resulting in long term demographic changes.

Jeff

[captainccs]

The number of countries experiencing more deaths than births in a given year is steadily increasing.

That should solve global warming…

The Captain

[tim443]

Of course immigration can change the population balance within a nation. Yesterday I posted that Germany is looking for 400K skilled worker immigrants.

Canada surpassed ~401K immigrants in 2021, a record number. I suppose we sort of cheated as due to COVID restrictions we targeted foreign students already living in Canada to reach our quota.

Anymouse

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/ne…

Canada welcomes the most immigrants in a single year in its history

From: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada

News release
Government reaches target of 401,000 new permanent residents in 2021

December 23, 2021—Ottawa—With the significant exception of Indigenous people, all Canadians originally come from somewhere else. The story of immigration fills many chapters in the history of Canada—including the most recent one. To support Canada’s post-pandemic recovery and chart a more prosperous future, the Government of Canada set a target of welcoming 401,000 new permanent residents in 2021, as part of the 2021–2023 Immigration Levels Plan.

[pauleckler]

Yes, birth rates continue to decline in developed countries. Part of that is the end of the post war baby boom and the smaller family size that followed development of the pill and better methods of contraception.

The key question is will birth rates continue to decline from here? Will they go to zero? Or are we headed for a new plateau?

That does create opportunities for immigrants from lower income areas with higher birth rates.

The best solution to the immigration problem is raising the standard of living in those third world countries. Of course peace, good government and law and order help.

Most ethnic groups prefer to retain their culture. Often immigrants bring their own. “White supremacy” is the latest buzz word but “Netherlands is full.” We want immigrants to learn “German” or what ever local language. Adopt our culture.

No easy solutions.

[tim443]

We want immigrants to learn “German” or what ever local language. Adopt our culture.

No easy solutions.

Good jobs, good public schools and second generation usually works?

Anymouse

[flyerboys]

Good jobs, good public schools and second generation usually works?

The most important is actually welcoming immigrants as wanted for all of who they are, including their culture, and happily expecting them to do just fine as have immigrants for three centuries.

With that invitation the kids cannot be prevented from learning English and quickly assimilating by adding their culture to our fusion reactor rather than abandoning all that their parents brought with them.

David fb

[pauleckler]

The most important is actually welcoming immigrants as wanted for all of who they are, including their culture, and happily expecting them to do just fine as have immigrants for three centuries.

But in a democracy this risks the possibility that immigrants will take over the government by election. Many examples. A concern in much of Europe. The Palestinians voting in Israel.

In a true democracy it doesn’t matter. Its all about the voters and their wishes. But for many in the real world its a concern.

[Watty]

Yes, birth rates continue to decline in developed countries. Part of that is the end of the post war baby boom and the smaller family size that followed development of the pill and better methods of contraception.

Related factors are that infant mortality and social safety nets are a lot better now in many countries than they were in the past.

Even 100 years ago it usually made sense to have a lot of kids so that some of them would survive to take care of you in your old age. You could also get a lot of help from the kids working on a farm.

This is still a factor in less developed countries where birth control may be available but it is logical for people to want to have lots large families.

[captainccs]

Yes, birth rates continue to decline in developed countries. Part of that is the end of the post war baby boom and the smaller family size that followed development of the pill and better methods of contraception.

And abortion.

The Captain