Negative UPST Analysis Article…

Major points seem to be:
– Other fintechs stalled out at this level of revenue
– It isn’t a SaaS and has to work hard to sustain growth rate
– 2023 projections drop to 30%.


From the article:

Unfortunately though, the guidance for Q2 revenues reaching up to $160 million and the annual 2021 guidance only hitting ~$600 million suggests no growth for the rest of the year. Upstart will only end the year with $160 million in quarterly revenues.

Any investor with two brain cells knows that the $600M target is the absolute sandiest of sandbags, meant to be beaten and raised thrice more.

I printed a few copies of the article in case I run out of toilet paper.



All, I wouldn’t take seriously articles from this author. Mostly click-bait type of stuff. We will see soon enough 2Q business results and let’s revisit the thesis then unless before that some important data point(s) will appear.



The author is right about one thing: Many misinformed think the share count is 20 million fewer than it is. This is about the only thing shorts have going for them in betting against this well managed, hyper growth, profitable, disruptive, future giant fintech gem with a head start of at least several years.

Competition from institutions of all sizes are simply inferior. UPST’s proprietary AI platform enables worthy borrowers with lower FICO scores to obtain unsecured loans at lower interest rates, while giving lenders more reliable predicability for payback and thus higher margins.

The increasing prospect of further blowout beat and raises in forthcoming Q reports could soon catalyze the MOASS (Mother of all Short Squeezes).

But author is right about the market cap, all public financial sights, including SA, Bloomberg, Yahoo, etc., choose to understate current share count and market cap, which is closing in on $12 billion this morning at a $125 premarket share price.