Nektar - Where I stand currently.

Especially my wife’s first ever pick, restoration hardware!!!

She’s taunting me in the background, “ooohhhhhh look who spiffy popped! Women ARE better investors!”

I’m completely ok with this as next she’s hooked!

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I’m completely ok with this as next she’s hooked!

I’ve been trying to plant seed’s into my wife’s head, but she still claims to have little interest.

She is a mechanical engineer with both a bachelors and masters degree, so I know that she could be a decent investor if I can get her hooked on it. It may take a while though. She was semi-impressed with my first Spiffy Pop from NVDA back in Nov. 2016. Surprisingly enough, I don’t think I have had any subsequent pops from NVDA…but if it happened to have one over the course of the next 3 days (which wouldn’t be a proper single day pop, of course), our combined portfolios would be quite grateful (with the June 15th call options presently held).

Any tips on how to get her to make an initial stock pick?
I may “force” her by opening an IRA for her since I can only put so much into the one in my name (which is up about 75% since starting it in April…which sounds more insane than it actually is, thanks TTD options, IQ shares, and IQ options particularly).



I don’t have any advice for getting the spouse interested in stocks. I haven’t been successful.

But what I realized, is that is OK. Sometimes its good to have some different interests.

It would be great to have someone in the house to talk stocks and companies with, but that is what the board is for.



Ok, I’m out. Smarted a little.

(sorry saul, we moved OT).


My advice on converting the spouse is:
(A) if she has a retirement account at work, its free money!
(B) stream Gardners RBI podcasts; honestly, these are just feel good podcasts!
(C) “dear, its both of our retirement, and I want us both to play a part in it. why dont we look together at a few choices?”

Gardner’s advice to “choose a portfolio that is representative of who you are and what you want the world to be” is magical. As such, I dont invest much in biotech anymore- not because I dont love it, but because autonomous driving is going to be way cool (NVDA), Musk is more fun to root for (TSLA), and I really believe in TWOU and MDB. The wife really loves interior design- so RH and W it is.

There are so many options there is something for everyone, without a need for everyone to “dig into the weeds” the way some of us do.


I’m still in. I came late to the party - had to be convinced, and only came in on the drop, so that helps.

That’s actually the usual story for me with biotechs. I don’t focus on biotechs, but I always have a few that I buy on the big drops these things often do, after making sure that smarter heads concur that the drop was unwarranted. I think biotechs are a nice place to get some extra jet fuel for the portfolio if you are patient. It is a complex enough area that analysts are often very wrong, and if you avoid the hype and buy the headfakes, you do well. I never get in at the bottom - I’m too impatient and buy the falling knife, but I usually get in low enough that the risk isn’t too bad. It helps that I understand the terminology, since my degree was in molecular genetics, before I took a right turn into writing fiction and poetry, and ended up in IT.

Anyway, continuing to be long on Nektar. I’ll leave it simmering and see what it does in a year or two



Yesterday, a Director at Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ: NKTR), Roy Whitfield, bought shares of NKTR for $290.2K.

This recent transaction increases Roy Whitfield’s holding in the company by 2.65% to a total of $10.44 million.

Based on Nektar Therapeutics’ latest earnings report for the quarter ending March 31, the company posted quarterly revenue of $38.02 million and GAAP net loss of $95.79 million. In comparison, last year the company earned revenue of $24.73 million and had a GAAP net loss of $63.87 million. The Company has a Price to Book ratio of 147.5775. Currently, Nektar Therapeutics has an average volume of 10.66M.

Starting in August 2014, NKTR received 161 Buy ratings in a row. Based on 8 analyst ratings, the analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average price target of $102.57, reflecting a -48.4% downside. 15 different firms, including Brean Capital and BTIG, currently also have a Buy rating on the stock.

The insider sentiment on Nektar Therapeutics has been negative according to 87 insider trades in the past three months. This sentiment is lower than the average sentiment of company insiders in this sector.

Roy Whitfield’s trades have generated a 51.0% average return based on past transactions. DailyInsider proprietary algorithm detects trades by the most influential insiders and selects attractive trading opportunities daily. To subscribe to the DailyInsider visit this page.

TipRanks has tracked 36,000 company insiders and found that a few of them are better than others when it comes to timing their transactions. See which 3 stocks are most likely to make moves following their insider activities.

Nektar Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, which engages in developing drug candidates that utilize its PEGylation and polymer conjugate technology platforms. It operates through the United States and Europe geogrpahical segments. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA.…


I’ve been trying to plant seed’s into my wife’s head, but she still claims to have little interest.

Be careful what you wish for :). My husband has been doing some investing for a while now. Both of us were passive investors participating in company’s employee stock participation plans and we both get RSU’s. Then he showed me my account where he bought Amazon a couple of years ago and showed me his return on Roku. Then I looked at my 1099-INT and was like “what the heck am I doing?”. TMF ads lead me to Stock Advisor and then I found Saul and this board. I am hooked. And he says that a monster has been born. I’ve made some good decisions and some very poor ones because I am learning and I shoot from the hip just because I get an itch to do something. Twillio is an example – it wasn’t doing anything around $39 so I sold it. The very next day it took off. Price anchoring is one thing I am having hardest time getting over. But the biggest advantage of me getting interested and involved is now he is more active and listens to me when I tell him something that I read on these boards. His account has done well, thanks to these boards. You are already here and doing very well. Congrats on 75% since April, simply amazing!

Best regards,


NKTR Thoughts.

I remain in on NKTR, having doubled down, but still at a 4% total position. I don’t plan to sell, but may even add if there is further drop. I’m full in on IT names, which are doing quite well, but I don’t really grasp what they all do.

I agree that it may be some time in coming for NKTR to realize its potential, but its science is right in my wheelhouse, and what better way to enjoy the ride that to have skin in the game. Remember that NKTR is not about 181, or 214, or the current drug du jour. Its about the ability to package a drug for better biodistribution, safety, efficacy, and pharmacokinetics. These current drugs are somewhat of a tip of iceberg for what such molecular packaging can do, especially in regard to up and coming protein based biologic agents. I do believe NKTR is trying to reach escape velocity where they don’t have to license their drugs to someone else for sales and distribution and receive marginal royalties, but rather keep the drugs in house and become a real pharmaceutical company.

Regarding Keytruda and Opdivo. Opdivo is a monoclonal antibody against the PD-1 receptor on T-cells. Keytruda is a monoclonal antibody against the PD-1 receptor on T-cells. While there may be some differences on strength of binding or efficacy of receptor blockade, these are essentially the same biological agent targeting the same receptor and thus the same pathway. I think the ASCO data clearly shows that NKTR-214 synergistically enhances the effects of Opdivo. That is clear. Thus, the combo of Opdivo and NKTR-214 is better than Opdivo alone. If Keytruda is better than Opdivo alone, or even the combo of Opdivo and NKTR-214, that is awesome, not only for patients, but for the very fact that Keytruda plus NKTR-214 will synergize and be better than Keytruda alone. The more applications we see developing for Keytruda, the more applications will eventually be available for NKTR-214 (remember that Merck and NKTR are partnered on some clinical trials for the combo)

IO therapy requires T-cells and NK cells to kill the tumor. Keytruda and Opdivo don’t do this directly, they just prevent the tumor cell from tricking the T-cell that it is a normal cell and shouldn’t be killed. NKTR-214 is the only agent that increases T-cell populations directly, nearly 30 fold. Thus, in my opinion, the ability to increase T-cell populations and the activation of those populations will complement all IO therapies. Do not think of NKTR-214 as a drug that stands alone in IO therapy, but rather one that complements all the other treatments and enhances them. If you look at the sales of Keytruda or Opdiva, those are the sales numbers that I would approximate for NKTR, eventually. Finally, mouse tumor model data shows awesome effects on triple combo IO regimens with NKTR-214 targeting multiple IO signaling pathways. However, central to all IO therapy is the ability of the T-cell or NK cell to kill the tumor cell, and NKTR-214 is the only agent currently available to do this.

AIDS patients have very few T-cells and develop a host of cancers. These patients provide some insight into the ability of the immune system to recognize and eliminate cancers before we even detect them. NKTR-214 creates a T-cell environment exactly polar to AIDS patients, with potently activated and proliferated T-cell environment. I think this enhances tumor detection and elimination. Heck, when I turn 60, I want two things: a CT scan or my coronary arteries and a 6 month dose of NKTR-214 to get my immune system to kill the cancers I don’t know I even have yet.

Anyhow, thats my perspective. Sometimes you stick with your guns, sometimes you don’t. There are lots of good stocks to choose from and this board presents you with some of the best. Good luck to all making your investing decisions.



Congrats on 75% since April, simply amazing!

To further clarify for any passers-by, that 75% was only for a smaller portion of my total combined self-managed portfolio. For a more comprehensive view, my combined self-managed portfolio is “only” up about 33% on the year so far (6.4% for the S&P500), and is running at a CAGR of 51.0% since my first post here on Saul’s board 13 months ago (“down” from about 54% for the period from 2/29/2016 to present) vs. 18.6% for the S&P500 for the past 13 months.

“only” at 23.2% CAGR vs. 10.8% for the S&P500 for the period dating back to October 2014

Thanks Jack. Your explanation is excellent. Even a non-scientist as myself can understand what you said. Since I also recently doubled up tactically I appreciated your take.


My ex-spouse, due to fretting (my fault as I told her ahead of time what I intended to do - and although she remained w full confidence in me -but could not help,herself) cost me 7 figures in profit during a 2 second period of time. Her fretting and anxiety caused me to unpull the trigger seconds before market close.

Now, in the end, I choose what I do. She was just an environmental circumstance… But like a good husband and human being (ie utter idiot) I took her feelings into account. Does not always pay to ignore what you know, what you need to do, just to be a “good”husband or person. Here it certainly did not.

My advice, unless your circumstances are special, let her manage her own dang port and keep her out of yours. Don’t even tell her, except a quick quarterly (same thing for primary wife investors towards husbands -in fact better not to even tell them less they ask and then show them your balance and keep them out of details they do not inquire about. If they do inquire w real interest, then share, but only then go into details).

Stock investing is not emotionally healthy as a couple activity. Gets in the way of good decision making, your emotions get trapped by how the market is doing, and the patience and other attributes necessary for good investing is detrimental to both your investing and your marriage.

In fact, best perhaps not to include her at all, even quarterly. If you need a stock friend, get a dog and you have many here.

Money and stock will only pollute an otherwise great marriage except in exceptional circumstances.



My NKTR basis is $67. I’m staying put. Nothing has changed in the investment thesis. NKTR-214 had some unclearly presented data… 181 is still on track for FDA approval… etc. Nothing has changed. Biotech’s are volatile… that hasn’t changed either.

I’ll hold until at least the November conference results. Getting 181 approval and some Phase 2/3 results I think will be rewarded.



From the seekingalpha article link previously posted……

It is interesting that BMY paid in cash and stock at the price of $106 per share, thereby signifying that the current valuation of $52.57 per share is a deep bargain to Nektar’s intrinsic value. We stated in the prior research:

Re the deal specificities, BMY will have the exclusive rights to the aforesaid conditions for an undisclosed specified period of time. Nektar to book revenues for the worldwide sales of NKTR-214 and reserved the rights to develop NKTR-214 with other anticancer drugs (as depicted in figure 2 above). Nektar and BMY to receive 65% and 35% of sales respectively. And, BMY to pay Nektar $1.85B in upfront payment - $1B in cash and the $850M from the purchasing of Nektar’s stock (roughly 8.28M shares at $106 per share). The development costs will be split 78% and 22% for BMY and Nektar, correspondingly.

Bristol Meyers certainly has a ‘price target’ for Nektar of greater than $106 it would seem. I think it’s also particularly important the Nektar reserved the rights to develop NKTR-214 with other anti-cancer drugs.



I don’t have any advice for getting the spouse interested in stocks. I haven’t been successful.

But what I realized, is that is OK. Sometimes its good to have some different interests.

It would be great to have someone in the house to talk stocks and companies with, but that is what the board is for.

My wife isn’t into too much. However, when I sold my shares in Netflix and completely renovated my old basement with the profits, she better realized how it has paid off for us.

She still isn’t into it where she will talk endlessly to me about companies. However, she will listen better now when I occasionally mention some company.

It’s the same with my rental homes. After the first one and each next one, she always says, no more. But, she always comes back around when I’m looking again and signs the paperwork each time.

I’m now thinking of getting a 4 bedroom/1 bath home in Alabama for $50,000 with a renter in it. I’d have to use a property manager, but I’d still turn a profit. Plus, by being far away, I wouldn’t be in it like I was in one of my local ones tonight cleaning it up for a new tenant tomorrow.

I’ll go OT a bit on real estate. If you buy a home to use as a rental, you can make money 4 ways.

  1. Your tenants gives you monthly rent which after paying your mortgage, taxes, insurance and setting a percentage aside for vacancies, repairs and capital expenditures, you should still have positive cash flow to save, spend or do whatever with.

  2. Your tenant is paying off the loan for you.

  3. Your home, if you bought wisely and care for it, should appreciate over time.

  4. Their are tax benefits to having rental property, better than with stocks or regular W2 income. So, you save tax money by having rental real estate.

Also, you use the banks money for the most part. With stocks, very few use margin. With real estate, almost everyone gets a mortgage. So, even if you had no other benefits, if your tenant paid off your mortgage for you, you still own a house at the end of the mortgage.

When you factor in positive cash flow for each month, the home appreciating over time, the tax savings and so on, you may find it’s worthwhile to pick up a rental home or two.

OT is over.

Fool on,


Long on having his wife supporting his investing


Just thinking out loud here after my last post.

There are real estate investors that pay very little to get their first rental. They then, after a period of time, refinance it at a higher amount due to it appreciating or the mortgage getting paid down. They get cash back and they then use that cash as a down payment to get their next rental.

Dang, the Saul gods must have hated me going OT. I have a new, cheap Google Chrome book. I’m typing on it and then, wham, multiple paragraphs I had typed just vanished.

I hate this computer. I should have spent more than $199 to get one, but I hate to spend money.

Fool on,


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NKTR-214 is the only agent that increases T-cell populations directly, nearly 30 fold. Thus, in my opinion, the ability to increase T-cell populations and the activation of those populations will complement all IO therapies. Do not think of NKTR-214 as a drug that stands alone in IO therapy, but rather one that complements all the other treatments and enhances them.

Jack, I think that was one of the best, most useful, and clearest posts ever on the board. Thanks for taking the time to write it for us. I still have major concerns about how long it’s going to take to play out, but it really helps to understand clearly what is going on.
Thanks again,


Congratulations on your recent returns! In only 11 years time (the minimum statistically-interesting investment-timescale of 15 years) we will be able realistically to compare your results since 2014 with the S&P.

I think it would be helpful to the readership here if people adopted the convention, when stating their holding in a certain company as a percentage always used the figure which is the percentage of their overall portfolio of investments on global stock markets.

This would make that figure meaningful. At present, we are all in the dark about whether some (usually insanely-large) figure quoted represents the convention suggested above or is some unknown component of a separate portfolio.

It would also be nice to know whether to blink in amazement at the percentage quoted as an instance of black comedy and a possible indicator of the final bull market top or not!


Investing Rule Breakers-style taught me that the leadership team/track record, is one of the most important things, especially investing in companies not making a profit yet. A search of the company that Nektar’s CEO founded and sold to Merck for a billion dollars (Sirna) showed it ended up being worthless. Maybe that’s not his fault, but the phrase “smoke and mirrors” came to mind.

Hmmm. If I have stage 4 cancer and I take a drug that halts disease progression and has a chance to cure me with minimal side effects, I would feel like it’s a miracle. Kinda hard to link a smoke and mirror to a bunch of people who should have been dead now walking around happy and healthy. Seems to me that these Nektar trials just keep getting better and better as the patients stay on the drug longer. Not only will this lead to drug sales once the drug is approved but this will also keep patents on the drug for longer (unlike Harvoni for HepC from GILD which is a one and done drug) for more sales. Now add in the NKTR-214 can probably work synergistically with many cancer drugs that partnering opportunities and the eventual approvals and sales resulting from the drugs smell like big block buster and game changing material in oncology treatment. How could I not want to stick with this horse. I’m not letting the fear resulting from faulty analysis kick me out of this investment. As the continuous stream of data from the multitude of trials rolls in over the coming 18-24 months the picture will become clearer and clearer. We will see how it turns out, but, personally, I am expecting that we will very likely have a big winner here. Of course, I could be wrong which is why I have 8-9 other stocks, each of which I believe can increase 10x from here.