'Net Zero' and 'The Death of Fossil Fuels' are Pipe Dreams

This presentation really taxed my attention span. I wanted to hear what BS the fossil fuel industry was trying to spread. While I can’t dispute a lot of the data presented there are a few items I can dispute, two of them are

  1. Surface area,
    There is a lot of talk about the huge surface area needed to harness sufficient sunlight to make a difference as if this area had to be exclusive. Rooftop solar panels share surface ares. I have seen projects for electricity generating window panes and road surfaces. Covered parking lots and shading certain crops are also possibilities. Vertical wind generators are more area efficient than giant blades, likely kill fewer birds, and make less noise…

  2. Outcomes
    When one accepts the concept of Complex Systems existing as Evolving Fitness Landscapes one becomes less certain about the sky falling and other prognostications, we simply cannot predict the future. Death by Covid was a recent example of this kind of BS.

But the conclusion is valid, our energy sources will continue to be “ALL OF THE ABOVE.'” If renewables reduce pollution and help clean up the environment that is way more important than lots of CO2 plant food in the atmosphere.

Interesting but somewhat boring presentation

Dr. Lars Schernikau is energy economist, entrepreneur, commodity trader, and author. Educated at New York University in the US, INSEAD in France, and TU Berlin in Germany, he has worked with commodities for 2 decades in Asia, Europe, Africa, and North America. Previously, he worked for the Boston Consulting Group in the US and Germany.

The Captain

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It’s actually easy to make predictions in complex systems.

The solar system is a complex system. I predict the sun will rise tomorrow.

Weather is a complex system. I predict in six months it will be colder in North Dakota than it is today.

Human biology is a complex system. I predict in 100 years I will be dead.

The thing about complex systems is they have complex predictability. Some things are easy to predict, some are impossible to predict, and others are partially predictable.

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The bottom line is green energy is possible but it will take massive investment and decades to get there. At least we are moving in the right direction. Each step is progress. But we expect to depend on fossil fuel long into the future.

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Exactly, while everyone here wants clean air and water, not everyone is willing to freeze to death or get heat stroke to get there. Be happy with every step everyone does to get there no matter how small.

Andy

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When you get tired of your current job you have as great future as a standup comedian! :joy:

The Captain

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