Within obvious massive uncertainties as to actual capabilities on both sides, Taiwan has what appears to be a reasonably strong anti-aircraft and anti-missile capability capable to at least partially shield its population against an initial bombardment, and to be useful for some time. It has plans to evacuate a large part of the populace into shelters and into rural zones. It has formidable counterattack capabilities.
Uncertainties plague planning for both sides. The madness springs from Xi’s abandoning his predecessor’s willingness to co-exist within a mutual promise of eventual reunion. Of course dictators being fed happy talk by underlings can make miserable murderous mistakes, viz Putin….
Chinese takeover will be swift. There will not even be any opposition. It will all be disguised as amicable. They have overwhelming superiority on land, sea and air (including space).
I just don’t get the comparison here between Hong Kong and Taiwan. How are the two even remotely similar? In terms of size, location, politics, and governance they look very different.
And following on Tamhas’ point, no one put their Navy between China and Hong Kong. The U.S. didn’t do anything when China assumed control over Hong Kong, because China was lawfully entitled to assume control over Hong Kong. Taiwan, however, is a very different story….
Many people in HongKong did not want to be part of China, just as many people in Taiwan don’t want to be part of China. HongKong wasn’t UK’s to give. They had unjustly colonized it.
Might is right and China is mighty and getting mightier. China will take over Taiwan and it will be swift just like HongKong was.
Which is why the UK gave it back to China, from whom they had unjustly colonized it.
The difference between Taiwan and Hong Kong is that the international community (and most importantly the U.S.) acknowledge that it was legal for China to resume sovereignty over the city. That’s why no one stepped in to stop it. That’s why there was no military response. That’s why Hong Kong never accumulated military resources to prevent the Chinese takeover. Everyone knew it was coming, and everyone agreed it was lawful. Not everyone wanted it, but there was no formal effort to stop it because it was an agreed-upon transfer.
An invasion of Taiwan would be fundamentally different. That invasion would be rejected by the international community and would likely (probably? certainly?) get the U.S. to try to interpose its forces between China and Taiwan.
The similarity that there are “many people” in both regions that didn’t want to be in China isn’t the relevant factor. It’s the fact that Hong Kong was incorporated into China without dispute, while China’s claims over Taiwan are bitterly and deeply contested by the world’s major military powers.
Because of that, China probably can’t take Taiwan without destroying it utterly. And if they destroy it utterly, what’s the gain from taking Taiwan? Hence, it is unlikely they will try to take Taiwan for as long as the West (read: the U.S.) indicates they will defend it.
also the size and separation of each, apart from all of the other differences. Hong Kong is connected to China - it’s a coastal city. Taiwan is a large island. Hong King is 428 sq mi while Taiwan is 13,826 sq mi, more than 30X larger.
HongKong was not UKs to give. What choice did UK have ?
Taiwan will not have any choice either when China makes its move. It will all be peaceful. The Chinese military parade was a show of strength for a reason. Land, Air and Sea superiority.
The UK wasn’t forced to return Hong Kong to China - they did it willingly. Because that’s what the terms of their agreement said. They had 99 years, the 99 years were up, so the UK left.
That’s not at all the situation with Taiwan. Do you really not see that? There isn’t an analogous situation there.
That comment of yours is typical and revealing — an insult to a solid contributor to this board tossed off with a pretense of knowledge hiding in arrogance as I remember having seen on the boards by people capable of spelling. (Your spelling may be better than mine!)
Unless perhaps by force you mean everything that is causative in the universe. It was not force of arms (violence and threat of violence) that brought on the return of Hong Kong to China, but simple basic realpolitik.