NCAR, perhaps soon to be shut down, has released results from new, extremely high resolution model runs.
the high-resolution simulations indicate that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — a major current that pumps warm tropical waters to upper latitudes — is likely to continue to shield Europe from frigid temperatures. Some lower-resolution models had suggested the current could soon collapse.
Another finding from the recent paper showed that daily extreme precipitation could increase by 41% over land this century, with potentially even higher increases in the southeastern United States.
“We are looking forward to other groups creating high-resolution simulations,” Danabasoglu said. “These early results are all based on our model. Once we have multiple models working on these important problems, it will give us even more confidence for future projections.”
It should be noted that their base model (CESM) has one of the highest model sensitivities, meaning it projects among the highest warming of different models.
It should also be noted that MESACLIP is based on CESM1.3, not the models in your linked article. That’s noteworthy because the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in the CESM2 model is significantly higher than the 1.3 series.
From the linked MESACLIP article -
“The massive dataset, weighing in at over six petabytes, provides scientists with an extraordinary trove of simulations spanning more than 4,500 years of past, present, and future climate on which to conduct experiments.”
How big is a petabyte? It’s a shat ton of storage. This guy gives us a clue -
Anyhoo, more research is needed, no? Too bad we’re cutting it.
You are right; CESM2 is higher than that of the 1 series. That said the 1 series is also on the high side. In addition, the Chang work discussed in the OP used the wildly unrealistic high emission scenario RCP8.5. “All analyses in this study are based on the HF-TNST ensemble under RCP 8.5.”
