Maybe I’m getting a little carried away when I think I already know the answer, but here’s Netflix anyway:
Netflix - NFLX
Revenues
2013 781 837 884 962 = 3464
2014 1066 1146 1223 1305 = 4740
2015 1400
Earnings
2013 .05 .49 .52 .79 = 1.85
2014 .86 1.15 .96 1.35 = 4.32
2015 .38
TTM
03/2014 2.66
03/2015 3.84
YoY EPS = (3.84-2.66)/2.66 = 44%
PE = 633/3.84 = 164
1YPEG = 164/44 = 3.72
Netflix is one of my core holdings. Even though I’m coming to appreciate the methodology behind finding the great stocks described on this board I will likely keep my position intact even though it comes in at 3.72. It’s one of those stocks I believe has plenty of room left to go.
Cheers again!
–Kevin
15 Likes
Ouch! NFLX is my largest position. I really have some work to do.
Htownrich
I sold my NFLX position several months ago and bought SKX. I haven’t looked back.
1 Like
Brittle,
If you sold NFLX 3 months ago and used the money to purchase SKX, you have a net gain of approximately 22%. If you had sold NFLX a year ago, you have would have gained a 75% better return with SKX.
Wise move a a good lesson for us to learn from.
I still own NFLX and have a nice 250% total return over 3 years. Perhaps there’s room for both.
Jim
I was in NFLX (sorry, I don’t have dates handy), needed cash for other reasons and sold at a “reasonable” profit after a pretty wild ride which included some serious dips. Had I sold at a different time, it would have been at a loss. Then I juggled some things and had some extra cash so I put it back in NFLX. Not too long ago (a few months) I sold NFLX again, this time at a moderate loss and put the money in SKX which has performed very well.
But I don’t know if I would have been better off by leaving the money in NFLX because as I said before, I didn’t look back. I never do. I consider it pointless. I made a decision and there’s no going back in time to change it. Maybe you think I could learn something from it if I look back and see I would have been better served by leaving the investment alone, but I beg to differ. I know why I made the decision and I would make the same decision all over again given the same (or similar) circumstances. The future is always uncertain, but I now have a methodology. It provides a good answer most of the time I’m still learning how to best put into practice. For example, Saul posted that he sold his position in SNCR after its big run-up. I didn’t buy it to begin with, and I’m certain I would not have had the insight to sell it.
So, I’m still learning, but I know enough to feel very confident in having sold NFLX. I’m still somewhat unsettled about having sold my SBUX, but the numbers just didn’t work. I don’t make every decision just on the numbers, but I give them more weight and importance than I have in the past because I understand the numbers I am now paying attention to.
2 Likes
I’ve written this before but here it is again: You don’t have to be right about the stocks you sell, just the ones you hold in your portfolio. It simply doesn’t matter what happens to a stock after you sell it. The only thing that matters is what the stocks do that you are holding. Think about that!
If you make a well thought-out decision to sell several stocks for what you perceive to be good reasons, and then make an equally well thought-out decision to buy several replacement stocks for what you also perceive to be good reasons, it’s simply not plausible, and even silly, to assert that you will not end up better off. It would imply that your judgment in picking stocks is just terrible. If you look at two stocks and say to yourself “This one is a Sell and that one is a Buy,” don’t you think that, on average, not every one, but on average, the ones you think are buys will do better? I’d bet a bundle that on average the ones you figure are buys will do better than the ones you figure are sells! If not, why are you bothering to evaluate stocks at all?
I also don’t worry about what the stocks I’ve sold are doing.
Best
Saul
17 Likes