If they don’t get Model 3 production rate solved and KEEP IT solved… they are in REAL trouble.
Yes, but the flip side of this is that M3 production rates have climbed substantially and, with M3 volume, the whole money picture is totally different. This is why I think lots of us feel that the doom and gloom pictures are greatly overdone.
Big problems in getting the cars constructed ,not quite correct, better would be" a big? problems in getting a large volume of cars assembled". Which they seem (finally) to be getting under control. Car companies can ramp fast once the get the bugs out, look up Ford Mustang production.
car companies have a tough, tough, row to hoe. agree ,it is what Buffett would call a bad business. With Tesla it is worse because he real break through will take 2 to 4 years for the 3 and especially the Y to start undercutting the price of ICE cars
I consider Tesla to be a binary choice. Either it will win big or die. Like many bio-techs, except in the case of Tesla you can try out the product for yourself and see if it works, no pesky double blind trials, no FDA.
I hold some (at a modest profit) but would never recommend it anybody else.
Tesla is a “chick” magnet. after the diver reaches a certain age and state of decrepitude the chicks might as well be made of non magnetic brass.
But they are great to drive. If you just want transport the few good BEV (mostly Teslas) are not worth the money. Yet.
Nope, if a woman needs a convertible sports car to get excited to be with me, I figure I don’t need the woman.
Amen!
BUT… Here’s my real point… doesn’t matter the stock. As soon as it becomes EMOTIONAL… it’s no longer sound investment. When you can’t listen/read other’s points of view and rationally comprehend and process and learn and respond… then THAT should be a warning to you.
Wow, it’s like you’ve been following KITE, CRSPR, and NKTR on this board 
Re: NKTR, and most “story stocks” follow a very similar pattern. That is not to say some “story stocks” don’t rise and keep rising (e.g. TSLA to-date), however without financial drivers, age-old market patterns tend to dictate price action. Without getting into technical analysis (I realize frowned upon on this board), the market cycle pattern tends to repeat itself over and over again: https://steemitimages.com/DQmUevCF3GRKL3HpqZA3PC33jjqWVAdFWe…
This is currently happening in the crypto markets, and if you go back and look at charts of DDD, WPRT, etc., the same pattern usually can be found with eerie accuracy.
As an update, I sold my short-term NKTR options, and hold a very small “lottery ticket” position built off profits. Whenever I’m in doubt, I tend to go back and view that “Psychology of a Market Cycle” chart.
Re: TSLA, I’m going to stay away from that incredibly polarizing debate, other than to say that the energy side of their business is the real game-changer to me. I believe it has been shared on this board before, but if not, spend the time to watch Tony Seba’s video. It may be a bit of hyperbole, but it will dramatically change the way you view our energy future (and potentially NVDA as well): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
Lastly, as I’ve received a few emails this month from board members, I’ve finally closed out my position in FOSL. What a cigar-butt ride for the last 6 months!
Stephen
I have never seen a Tesla but based on the noise that goes past my house on a beautiful Sunday afternoon like today, I think they will never sell too many unless they put huge speakers in them to emulate the sound of an old Honda Civic with those bubble bee sounding pipes, or perhaps you could have a selection so you could emulate the noise of a Harley, or a diesel pickup with 5 inch pipes.
People seems to love their noise. I was thinking this afternoon while working in my shop, and after the 100th Harley sat at the corner revving up, that if we ever get to designer babies, I wonder if the people making all that noise will tell the doctors, “I want one that is really loud and as soon as I get it home I have some mods I am going to do to make it even louder”. Or when they go to the pound to adopt a dog to they ask “which one is the loudest”?
I really believe Tesla will have to do loud in order to succeed.
Just my ramblings.
Mike
https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/a215652…
artificial whines are a feature of the new Jaguar BEV
After sometime driving a BEV, to me the ehaust noise of a ICE is like a mechanical fart, expelling useless smelly gases
What a opportunity cost suffered for investing in Tesla over the last few years. Perhaps things will change when the 3 starts rolling out, but even at 3500 units a week, it will still take nearly 3 years just to fulfill back orders, much less selling vehicles for new owners.
Do you think new owners are going to wait 3 or more years for their 3? They have some real issues. But it will at least save the company.
I think I’m missing something in your analysis.
Why does it matter to the company’s financials how long a buyer has been waiting?
To me, a car sold for $35000 (or $50000) is the same dollars into the cash register as if you had ordered months or years in advance or walked in off the street and took it home the same day.
Actually it is slightly better for the company if you were on a waiting list. They have your deposit interest free. Every car made has a known owner so there is very little spent on storing cars not sold yet. No extra dealer markups and haggling and doing exchanges for different colors and options between dealers – which is just extra overhead (paid for by consumers)
I think every car company would love to have a continuous waiting list for every car they can make.
And of course some (maybe most) consumers would like to walk in and buy right away. But if people voluntarily go on a waiting list instead of going to the competition for an instant purchase, then that says something.
Mike
The waiting list for the 3 happened when it was thought they would not need to wait years and years to get their cars. These were the low hanging fruit of buyers. The enthusiasts.
The problem is, is if you cannot get a 3 for at least 3 years, then buyers are going to buy something else. You are not going to see 400,000 more buyers put down a $1,000 deposit only to have to wat 4 to 6 years for their car.
It is sufficient to keep the company in business, but it also gives the competition a 4 to 6 year window to catch up. Not something I would want to give my competition when I was otherwise way ahead.
We shall see if Tesla can get their production up much higher while maintaining quality. So much for the truck business. If Tesla cannot even produce enough cars to service buyers who did not already put down deposits for a half decade, then how are they now going to up production to satisfy all the truck orders?
Tinker
Why You Can’t Buy a Tesla in Connecticut (and 5 Other States)
https://blog.ucsusa.org/daniel-gatti/why-you-cant-buy-a-tesl…
Remember the Tucker??
XMFBreakerTinker writes:
The waiting list for the 3 happened when it was thought they would not need to wait years and years to get their cars. These were the low hanging fruit of buyers. The enthusiasts.
I put down a deposit the first day it was possible (March 31, 2016). The expectation was that I would get my Model 3 in late 2017 or early 2018. I got it in late 2017. What you wrote is nonsense.
The problem is, is if you cannot get a 3 for at least 3 years, then buyers are going to buy something else.
That may indeed be a problem, but it exists only in your mind. Try making a reservation today (https://www.tesla.com/model3) and it will take 4-12 months to get your car if you are in the US.
You are not going to see 400,000 more buyers put down a $1,000 deposit only to have to wat 4 to 6 years for their car.
Yes, that’s true. You won’t see it because it has nothing to do with reality.
It is sufficient to keep the company in business, but it also gives the competition a 4 to 6 year window to catch up. Not something I would want to give my competition when I was otherwise way ahead.
You’re talking about something you made up, not reality. Although, I admit, here we are six years after Tesla shipped its first Model S and it still has no competition. Even its potential competition doesn’t aim to ship for a couple of years and will only compete with where the Model S was three years ago (maybe).
We shall see if Tesla can get their production up much higher while maintaining quality.
Yes, I guess we shall. Meanwhile, here in the real world, Tesla has been increasing production and improving quality for months. No reason to think they won’t continue.
So much for the truck business. If Tesla cannot even produce enough cars to service buyers who did not already put down deposits for a half decade, then how are they now going to up production to satisfy all the truck orders?
Impressive – combining non sequiturs and falsehoods. Nobody has put down a deposit for a half decade, and nobody will. And trucks won’t be shipping until next year, so it’s a bit early for theories on how truck production is going.
Is your information so bad because you don’t invest in Tesla? Or is it this bad about the companies you invest in too? I’d be more careful if I were you.
-IGU-
https://electrek.co/2018/04/03/tesla-record-production-model…
10,000 Moidel 3s made as of Feb 2018.
I am quite glad that you were one of the lucky ones to get a Model 3, but I am quite disappointed in how many people feel they have to personally attack a poster, particularly when that poster is correct.
10,000 3s, 400,000 + deposits. You run the math.
I have no interest in talking more about Tesla. Tesla was a great investment years ago. It has been stagnant and pretty much predictably since then.
I hope you enjoy your car. I do not wish to suffer someone who would speak to me in that manner, on a forum like this where we are all participating with each other to invest better.
Good day IGU, I will not be speaking with you again in any fashion.
Tinker
only to have to wat 4 to 6 years for their car.
Anyone notice how this window keeps getting stretched?
For some reason, the assumption seems to be that current levels of production … or better yet, levels of production from some weeks ago … will remain the level of production throughout the fulfillment period. Given how much these levels have already accelerated, this seems like a foolish assumption. Some people talk as if the production ramp has been terribly slow, when the opposite is true.
it also gives the competition a 4 to 6 year window to catch up. the competition has more time than that. In fact they have had since 2012, since seeing the first model S. Nothing much has come of that so far.
In fact Big Auto does not want to make BEV, and Tesla’s tiny production over next 5 years only threatens a few car companies. Why should Ford care, they make almost all their money on PUT, present hired hand management will be long retired by the time battery PUT start seriously eating into their PUT sales.
Tesla can only make so many cars but it is a 100 million car market. Tesla will not be the only one making good BEV. But Toyota got to be a 10 million/year car maker starting from nothing offering less innovation than Tesla. I would be satisfied if Tesla goes from 100,000 per year to 10,000,000 per year.
buyers are going to buy something else Yes for most. But cars do wear out so there is a continuous demand for replacements. If it is a Tesla they may dump their old but useable ICE just like I did.
TSLA is one holding I would never recommend to anybody. Too risky. And importantly ,while SaaS is a good business, making cars is a bad business.
Actually I never recommend stocks to friends. If the stock goes down it’s your fault, if it goes up it was due to their own brilliance.
Interesting thought on TSLA…on one of TMF podcasts, one of their analysts thought that Elon Musk should take TSLA private in order to give him space to run the company without constant quarterly/analysts expectations.
