Not one of the 100

Well at least I can still post here, haha, apparently I’m not one of the chosen 100 on Saul’s… not surprising as I certainly haven’t demonstrated good money management per below.

Wanted to tell Bear that I’m the poster child for this comment on his portfolio review, “If someone who was retired, or on the verge, suddenly decided to put 100% of their net worth into a portfolio like mine in mid-2021, it absolutely would have messed up their plans.”

Didn’t happen exactly like that, but the final result has been the same, very bad timing in coming into funds to invest, and being overconfident in the investing method discussed. Not blaming anyone but myself, but timing of macro events, and my investment moves, couldn’t have been worse.

And it has not only messed with my plans, what I’ve done runs through my head every minute of every day. Hopefully this might let someone else who is wrestling with a similar situation know they’re not alone.

Hoping for better market days, and wishing Jay Powell and Michael Burry would just keep their mouths and opinions to themselves. :shushing_face:


Foodles, my friend!

You also know what Bear said over and over:
Don’t do what I do!
Don’t follow me!
I don’t know what will happen tomorrow or next year!
Decide for yourself!

Now you know he wasn’t kidding!

Yeah, okay, I read all those same things and I’m still down over 50% from that day in Febr. '22 when my wife retired from her lucrative career, when we were literally a few dollars from our retirement goal.

We have no excuse, brother. :slight_smile:
Just do like me:

  • Change your tickets to Ireland for tickets to Omaha.
  • Detour your cruise from Miami to the Bahamas to a cruise down the Platte River. Local is in!
  • Lie to your spouse: “Yes honey, we’re still rich, but let’s not spend anything right now, ok?”
  • Pray that DDOG reverses soon. Real soon.

Hi Dan,

I hope I didn’t come off as blaming Bear or Saul or anyone else, Bear just made a remark in his review that hit close to home (and I can’t post there)! I don’t copy anyone else’s portfolio, and I did successfully invest in the high growth, concentrated portfolio method for 5 years with what I learned from the fine folks at SID (with smaller amounts of money). Then as (bad) luck, and bad timing would have it, I came into much larger amounts to invest come 2020 and 2021 (the bad timing I talked about) through a couple 401k accounts that rolled over to IRAs. Heck, at the time I had a 3-4 year CAGR over 40%, why wouldn’t I invest the new funds into the same high growth companies (my decision)! I was a hero till Nov 2021, we’d hit well above the high end of our retirement fund goal, but I didn’t sell or trim anything mostly because I didn’t want to pay taxes on the gains. Well, my wish has come true, because I don’t have gains to pay taxes on now (lesson learned… if I ever have a gain I can take in the future, doesn’t feel like there will ever be one currently).

And I have a fairly high risk tolerance (thought I did, anyway), I weathered the previous 40% drops without much of a concern. But as the current shellacking of my high growth portfolio got close to 70% down from the high of last Nov (for the entire portfolio), anxiety did set in. But it’s not where it’s at now that bothers me, it’s the realization that the market indexes could go significantly lower as they’re only down 20-35% so far. If the Fed oversteps their rate hikes (which I think they already have) and cause a significant recession, the markets could go significantly lower, and I don’t think the high growth sector would be immune, even with how far valuations have contracted already, and how they continue to show some of the best growth around. This was always my nightmare scenario, that there would be a rotation out of high growth, followed by the general market tanking before high growth could recover, causing it to go down even farther. Well, it’s no longer fiction.

There has just been no good news for almost a year… supply chain issues, inflation, war, rate hikes, potential slowing economy/recession, etc. And the barrage of news articles never stops. And every time a new comment from the Fed comes out (even if it’s a rehash of what they’ve already said), the market reacts and drops from the same news it dropped previously from.

It all has just caused nothing but total frustration and anxiety. And there seems to be just no place to discuss it. Nobody is around on the boards anymore (here, for instance). Can’t discuss it on SID as it’s off topic (and I can’t post there anymore, anyway). I liked the MF daily email that dealt with the psychology of some of this stuff, but they stopped sending that out a couple weeks ago.

There’s just nowhere to turn. I do like how Bert puts out a weekly commentary on his thoughts of the previous week. I don’t always agree with his points, but kudos to him for consistently providing some dialog for subscribers!


Hi fellas. None of us can post on Saul’s and I unferstand that because the vast majority of posters just cant grasp that “their” particular one liners really are NOT any more important than anybody elses. BUT i jave a question. Can we still email individuals off board? I think we should still be able to email individual posters off board with questions that theybcan choose to respond to and still not clutter the board.

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Hi Tim,
As far as I know, the option of email to poster off board is gone.

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Relax, foodles, I meant nothing of the kind. I’m going through the same things, as my bride retired in Febr, right when our ports fell off the cliff. Sadly, all of my holdings are still in intensive care.

However … :slight_smile:

Somehow, I am (for now) allowed to post at Saul’s. Don’t ask me why. Saul’s elves must have picked my name out of the hat while Saul was away.

Here is my last post there, and it’s chock-full of my top-level wisdom:

(post deleted by author)

Cool, right?

ps: Tim, you have my address but you never write, or call or visit. It’s almost like you don’t love me any more. And after all I’ve done for you! Oops, I was also corresponding with #1 son and got mixed up. Never mind.

Somehow you can opt to email to a poster, because I just opened my email and have several (No, I don’t know how they did it.) More importantly, I just found out from another board, that when you reply to someone who emails you from a TMF post, your reply shows up in the feed! Guess I won’t be emailing anyone from here any more!

They should warn you of stuff like this. So very uncool. It feels like being in kindergarten on Facebook. Not that I will ever know. :slight_smile:


@RaptorD2, what you are seeing there is the result of your “Emails” preferences. You can choose to have some content on the boards emailed to you, which is similar to if the poster on the old boards clicked the “Email this reply to author” box. However, crucially, note that you control what comes to your email, not the poster.

The extra bit of confusion comes from the fact that these emails embed the helpful capability of posting to the boards on your behalf if you reply to the email. See this screenshot from an email I got when someone replied to a post of mine:

Personally, I really dislike my email getting cluttered with message board content when I could just visit the message board to see it, so I have all emails turned off. But if you do like it, it’s important to remember that it is not an alternative channel of communication just between you and the person you’re chatting with. It is instead an alternative mechanism of reading and posting to the public board.

I agree this is very confusing to longtime TMF users, mostly because of the previous email functionality of the TMF boards, which I always found a little crazy because of the way it gives out your email address.

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Thanks, Softie,

If I ever see a Preference link, I’ll be sure to click on it. :slight_smile:

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if you left click on your little circle profile (that is on top right of page )-- at the very bottom of the icons is preferences

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You can find it by clicking your avatar at upper right, then the little person icon at the bottom of that popup, and choosing Preferences, then Emails. Or go here:

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Were they also seated at the cheap seats :wink:

I haven’t posted on this board in a very very long time. Good to see some still post here.
The market is doing what it does. The best of times and now the worst of times, it does it without emotion.

Greed was at a fever pitch in 2021. We has SPACs, we had the Reddit kids and meme stocks, we had crypto, we had new investors expecting 100% plus returns a year, as if it was the new normal.

This kick in the pants is exactly what is needed really. If it was a 3 month correction, a very short bear market, much like 2020, not much would have been learned. That’s just how high and out of balance the market was, so the pendulum swinging back needs to be deep and needs to cover some distance.

What I’ve been doing, slowly, very slowly adding along the way. Even today. No expectation, no desire for a glorious comeback. If it happens, it happens. In time, some unknown length, all will return to the norm, patience most likely will be rewarded. Slow and steady tends to do just fine in the long run. 15% returns on average over the next 10 years, I’d be happy with that. 20%? Well that would be bliss.

Best of luck all. Keep your heads up.


Good to see a post from you and hope your doing well. Always enjoyed reading your posts.

I’m just riding this downturn out and (like you) adding what I can along the way.


Happy to be here and reading all your posts. Hope we make a killing on the markets soon.

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